Analysis of Phil Hellmuth's play on Day 1 of the 2023 Main Event

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Phil Hellmuth had an eventful first day at the wsop Main Event. He arrived a few minutes into the second level at the featured table on PokerGo’s coverage, played a little less than six hours and ended up with 105,900 chips, almost double the starting stack.

Hellmuth gave a grand master class in poker for the first five and a half hours, building his stack to more than 130,000 on multiple occasions and winning almost every pot he entered. Hellmuth lost only nine times in the first 129 hands while winning 21.

His biggest win came when he called a 2-bet and then a 3-bet with pocket 6s and flopped a set on a 7-6-5 board with two diamonds. Correctly deducing his opponent, who had 3-bet the flop to 8,000, had a big pocket pair (QQ), Hellmuth ratcheted up the pressure. He bet 20,000 after the flop, 15,000 after a 9 turn and 18,600 on the 5 river that gave him a full house. His hapless opponent could not find a fold and gave Phil 61,600 of his chips on the hand.

Hellmuth may have been at his best when he escaped disaster with KK vs. AA. He only lost 15,900 chips in that hand, mainly because his opponent tightened up. He opened with KK and called his opponent’s 3-bet to 4,500. I think most players would have 4-bet with KK in that spot, but Hellmuth showed patience. He probably realized players don't 3-bet him lightly, so he slow played his kings. He check-called the Q-9-8 flop, both players checked the 4 turn and then he led out with 6,000 after the 7 river. His opponent just called with his aces.

He continued his tight play after that hand, but the turning point may have come at hand 115, when he had pocket 9s and bet 1,000 on the river with a 10-10-7-Q-A rainbow board. His opponent, who had a missed flush draw, raised him to 4,500. Hellmuth agonized for about a minute and tossed his winning hand into the muck.

Then the enigmatic poker star’s split personality took over. Maybe it was getting bluffed, or maybe he got tired at the end of a long day, but the tight, systematic style that is his hallmark was replaced by wide-ranging, borderline reckless play. He began opening with hands like 10-7, 6-5 and 7-6, holdings he routinely tossed into the muck for the first five hours. Aggressive C-bets and his reputation won him a few small pots, but the losses began to pile up, and his stack dwindled.

He shed more than 30,000 chips in the final thirty minutes before winning small pots on the last two hands to undo some of the damage.

In the final 14 hands, he lost six times, including four in a row at one point. He opened four hands, called three others and three-bet once for a VPIP rate of 57 percent. He won two of those eight hands for a win rate of 25 percent.

Contrast that to the rest of the session, when he entered 23 percent of hands and had a win-rate of 70 percent (21 of 30).

By the numbers

136,600 – High mark of the day

143 – Number of hands played

107 – Number of times he folded

36 – Number of hands he played

29 - Number of flops seen

13 – Number of those hands that went to a river

3 - Number of times he bet and then folded to a re-raise

1 – Number of river bluffs he tried that didn’t work

0 – Number of times he tried a river bluff

Pre-flop action: 20 opens; 12 calls; 3 3-bets; 1 call and fold to a 3-bet; 1 limp; 1 walk in the BB
 
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