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Message: [QUOTE="mottotom27, post: 2628902, member: 123534"] you stress the importance of his 14% button 3bet stat. generally people with 100 or so hands have only had about 7 opportunities to 3bet from the button, implying he's 3bet 1 out of 7 hands he's had a chance to. this is pretty meaningless so be careful about putting him on a "14% 3bet range", sample size is key! again 18% WTSD doesn't mean much over 100 hand samples. only his VPIP and PFR are even close to being accurate so use these stats instead to make assumptions about villain's likely range (compare to population tendencies of regs with similar stats). i think the check raise itself isn't awful, but the small checkraise followed by a pot sized turn shove looks strong and polarised. you're taking a polarising line with a depolarised hand. competent villains are gonna look at your sizing and put you on trips+ or (semi)bluffs. but since the only semibluffs that make sense to be in your range on a monotone board are basically AK and AQ with the ace of spades, they should realise that hands like TT, JJ and even a hand as strong as AA (without a spade) aren't in that great shape vs your range. so i'm actually not confident that a reg is gonna stack off on the turn with much worse, and might even fold better. if i had TT/JJ/AK on the turn with or without a spade, i'd be folding to a shove. if i had AA without a spade i'd be in an uncomfortable spot, probably have to pay it off but your turn potsized shove is a bit offputting. also if you checkraise and he shoves, is your plan to pay it off? my guess is you might not be in great shape then either. if he has JJ or TT then i don't expect him to 3bet the flop so his shoving range is gonna have a lot of AA or KK with a spade, flushes, some Ax with the ace of spades and you're not doing great vs that range. but if you are going to checkraise this flop then make it enough so that on the turn you can comfortably shove. you gotta get into the habit of picturing the pot size and SPR on each street. a slightly bigger check raise to $8 means you can shove $15 into $21 on the turn which is a lot more comfortable. [/QUOTE]

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