trying to increase my 4-b range btn contra blinds bec i'm feeling that lots of players are 3betting weak in these type of situations
on 25nl stars, that the players are 3betting wide, is not true, they 3bet less than 10% on average i think more like 8% BBvSB 3bb open. Which is on nitty side, they should 3bet like 18% at minimum, vs any normal SB opening range. Also notice he 3bet to 10bb, not 9bb, which is most frequent sizing, so if he might have sizing tell, and 3bet weaker hands to 9bb and stronger hands to 10bb, and if thats the case, then you should decrease your 4betting range, not increase.
marvinsytan (SB): $30.46 (122 bb)
aodwntm (BB): $55.74 (223 bb)
Normally you should 4bet less often if effective stacks over 100bb. Because people make their ranges for 100bb effective usually.
on positional 3bet stat, you would need 10,000hands+ to be any accurate, What sample size did you have? likely irrelevant, i would rather go with population tendencies which says that BBvSB 3bet to 9bb is more like 5-10%, and he is 3betting to 10bb not 9bb (meaning stronger range)
marvinsytan (SB) 4-bets to $4.75, aodwntm (BB) calls $2.50
You 4bet to 19bb vs 10bb 3bet, and you are out of position, this kind of size doesnt generate many folds(many hands have EQ to call), and when you are out of position , you want to decrease stack-to-pot ratio, so that villain's positional advantage matter less.
some math:
he has to call 9 to win 38 = 9/38=23.7% EQ needed
assuming rake 5% thats 38*0.95=36bb won if someone (check)fold on flop
so
9/36=25% EQ needed to call
instead , vs 10bb , you should 4bet to something like 25bb when you are out of position
math is: 15/(25*2)=30%
with 5% rake: 15/(25*0.95*2)=31.5% EQ needed to call ... now much more many hands cant call profitably so you generating more folds preflop, and not paying rake, if he folds to 4bet preflop, because you pay rake only if you reach the flop, not if hand ended preflop. Thats the biggest point.
Flop: ($9.50) 6♣ Q♠ T♠ (2 players)
marvinsytan (SB) bets $4.54, bet for value
This flop is better for the caller of 4bet, as he have more AQo than you. Even though you would have AA KK AQ that wants to bet, most frequent hand in your range will be AK, and you want to check AK. While villain likely shove majority of AK preflop so he have more like AQo KJs and other high EQ hands. So this is better flop for caller i would guess.
On flop, pot is 38bb, you have 103bb left each , that is 2.7 stack-to-pot ratio.
You said you bet halfpot(you did bet 48%) with KQ for value, but this already getting very iffy even with KQ(no spade). What you getting value from ? Villain likely have all AQo and probably folded some or many KQo preflop , so there is only 1combo of KQcc since you block the other KQsuited combos with your hand, and that have more EQ than you because of the additional backdoor flush draw equity.... So you getting value from QJs ATs if he even calls those vs halfpot, and then KJs have very good EQ vs KQnospade... but most importantly you just owning yourself vs AQo and 2combos QTs(if he play it this way). TLDR, you should use smaller sizing in 4betpots, not 50% on flop, but more like 25%, or 33%pot, to make hands like AJs, AJo?, JJ/99/88 still continue vs 25% or 33% because its a close call , if you mix in enough AK in your cbetting range, but these low EQ hands in villain's range have super easy fold if you use big cbet size like 50% , and you make villain's range stronger with the higher cbet size , and likely, KQnospade cannot "valuebet" flop for 50%pot in this situation even anymore, or simply is better as a check than a 50%pot bet .
Turn: ($18.58) 2♦ (2 players)
marvinsytan (SB) checks, pot control we don't want to over value our hand in a 3b pot pre we are still losing to AQ and 2 pr QT
He should be aggresive with AQ on flop majority of times so you can valueshove KQ on complete blank turn like this.
You have cca 60bb left into pot of cca 80bb(75%size is allin). Complete blank turn card came, so if you were good on flop, you are good now, so i would just shove here, since villain would have shove some of hands that are better than KQ on the flop already, and there are still meh river cards like any spade, any A, any J, any K(completes J9s and AJ if they still have those, which i think at atleast small frequency they would), any 9 and not as terrible, but still bad T river (improves KTs,ATs but since you used so big flop size some might have folded on flop).
marvinsytan (SB) checks, and calling a bet but need to tank if he bets more than 50%
need to think about what if bet 50% ? very random, people dont bluff in these scenarios on this stakes, neither he should since its not very great card for his range as it played out.
Also why you even expect 50%pot bet? there is 75%potbet left, i think thats the only size that gonna be used, or definitely not 50%, either like 20% or 75%.
That said, given that people wont bluff here in my experience, you should fold the river, since you gonna see ATs KTs and some slowplays from previous streets.
Total pot: $18.58 (Rake: $0.84)
ok thats 4.5% rake, not 5% but numbers won't change ultra much in my calculations.
aodwntm (BB) mucks J♠ J♣ (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 57%, Flop: 15%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)
Flop:15% as you can see , thats the EQ he had vs you. You bet 50%pot on flop, he had super easy fold, which he really did, vs 50%pot, very meh call, he not trying to guess his EQ anywhere close. he needs 25% EQ to call flop, (after 5% rake, more like 26.5%EQ).
IF you bet 25%pot on flop, he needs 16% EQ only (cca 17%EQ after rake). So you give him very hard decision with middle hands like JJ KTs ATs QJs AJs... you get the point? With 50%pot cbet on flop, you give all these hands super easy life, especially imagine 99 88 ultra easy accurate fold vs 50% while not so easy vs 20% pot, 25%pot... is it... especially with spade included in their hand, for additional backdoor flushdraw equity... and you not even have KQ with a spade yourself.
analysis: maybe i can bet river 50% for value if turn checked checked, (yeah maybe after seeing his hand
)
you mean 50% of the times or 50%potsize? since there is 75%potsize left to go, what you gonna do, if he shove? i would have folded since noone shove there as bluff for so little left, since they dont expect you to fold anything for such small shove. But just seems like a waste to betfold medium hand like this to a super small raise, so wouldnt be betting it probably at all in the first place, there is not enough worse hands to call you, you just gonna most often valueown vs many combos of AQo/AQs and sometimes split with 1combo of KQs
