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Message: [QUOTE="Matt Vaughan, post: 2103466, member: 34747"] I hear what you're saying, and obviously it's easiest to make hero calls on the river live when people's "bluffs" often make no sense at all (though in your example, villain would have caught 2pair on the river with T8). I'm not sure it's quite so relevant to say 80:20 for ALL river bets, but certainly in spots similar to your example where the action is so passive until the river (x, x/c, b). And if not many value hands make sense, it's rarely going to be someone being tricky - more often it's a bluff. I also see a lot of b, x, b lines as bluffs from weak players OOP live. If they get floated on the flop when they were bluffing, and then essentially "give up" on the turn, but hero checks behind, they sometimes will assume our passivity as enough weakness to let them bluff again, when in actuality we have a hand good enough to bluff catch. For example, played this hand a while back: Blinds $1/$2, I have AJo on the button, and a roughly average, semi-tight, semi-thinking player opens HJ to $8. I flat call and it goes HU to the flop. Flop comes K73r, so I completely wiff. Villain bets $12. "Read" on villain is that he is capable of a bluff here and there but isn't going to be double barreling much, so I call to see what happens on the turn, since I think my A high will be good a lot on such a dry board. Turn is 4x, so nothing really changes about the board, and villain checks. Really looks like he's just giving up as it looks like I have a pair. I should probably just bet here to take it down, but I end up checking behind. River comes 2x, and villain hesitates just a moment before firing $40 (into roughly $40). His bet makes almost no sense. He'd never take this line with a decent Kx that he'd open. Basically his only value hands are turned or rivered sets that cbet the flop. Everything else is pure air. I also felt there was a bit of a bet sizing tell here with him betting so huge - my range looks fairly weak, like weak Kx and perhaps lower PPs, so he doesn't expect me to be able to call such a large bet. I call, he shakes his head and says "I've got Q high," so I turn over my AJ and take down the pot. I think one reason people become more bluff weighted on the river in live games is that people don't realize just how wide they can bet for value. No one except the (very) few good players I've run into bets thin enough for value on the river. People make REALLY thin river bluffs and decidedly -EV bluffs, but people will check TONS of value hands that they could bet for thin value on the river. [/QUOTE]

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