Is it really that hard to understand odds?

[twizzybop]

Or do they gamble cause either they have no clue or don't care to know even the simple basics?

Hand #1... Guy has 2 over cards to come on the turn. The simple 4 rule says is to take your outs which at this point is 6 outs, now multiply that by 4 is 24, making that 24% to get 1 of those over cards. Now a pot bet is only 2:1 to against a 24% to hit. Now the turn card does help him more to hit his hand. However it only gives him 7 more outs cause one of those clubs is an ace. Now we have 13 outs on the simple 2 rule that says on the turn to multiply by 2 equals 26%. So again its a 2:1 call on a 26% to hit. I said simple which means I forgot the +1.. but the % is close enough for simplicity. Granted at times one must throw odds out the window, probably in such a need as this guy around mid/late tourney.

Just want to show that odds and %'s need to be thought of carefully. If they aren't, the long run. You are going to be losing out. Yes before anything is said.. I wanted a caller here with my overbet pre-flop raise.

Stage #402998019 Tourney ID 1138896 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $100 - 2006-05-17 10:15:07 (ET)
Table: 41 (real money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 1 - TWIZZYBOP ($34932.50 in chips)
Seat 2 - CHRILLE_FTW ($6555 in chips)
Seat 3 - NASCAR12FANN ($4030 in chips)
Seat 4 - ME_LOVES_JEZ ($2855 in chips)
Seat 5 - SHERI70 ($450 in chips)
Seat 6 - LUKE HAYES ($18002.50 in chips)
Seat 8 - MRFIXET ($13520 in chips)
Seat 9 - KHARDY ($14435 in chips)
SHERI70 - Posts small blind $100
LUKE HAYES - Posts big blind $200
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TWIZZYBOP [Jh Js]
MRFIXET - Folds
KHARDY - Calls $200
TWIZZYBOP - Raises $2000 to $2000
CHRILLE_FTW - Folds
NASCAR12FANN - Folds
ME_LOVES_JEZ - Folds
SHERI70 - Folds
LUKE HAYES - Folds
KHARDY - Calls $1800
*** FLOP *** [2c 8h 7c]
KHARDY - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - Bets $4800
KHARDY - Calls $4800
*** TURN *** [2c 8h 7c] 8♣
KHARDY - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - Bets $8000
KHARDY - All-In $7635
TWIZZYBOP - returned ($365) : not called
*** RIVER *** [2c 8h 7c 8c] 5♣
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TWIZZYBOP - Shows [Jh Js] (Two Pair, jacks and eights)
KHARDY - Shows [Kc As] (Flush, king high)
KHARDY Collects $29170 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($29170)
Board [2c 8h 7c 8c 5c]
Seat 1: TWIZZYBOP HI:lost with Two Pair, jacks and eights [Jh Js - P:Js,P:Jh,B:8h,B:8c,B:7c]
Seat 2: CHRILLE_FTW Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: NASCAR12FANN Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: ME_LOVES_JEZ (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: SHERI70 (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: LUKE HAYES (big blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: MRFIXET Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: KHARDY won Total ($29170) All-In HI$29170) with Flush, king high [Kc As - P:Kc,B:8c,B:7c,B:5c,B:2c]

Hand #2 is a better example of knowing and learning more about your odds and %'s. Now I also wanted a caller here as well. However there was really nothing this guy could chase. 3 cards to come.. on a 2:1 bet.. so 3 X 4 on the flop is 12% all the way down to the river. Now even throwing the odds out the window and just gambling. I am sure most everyone would not gamble thier whole stack against 12%.

Now the 12% is all the way down, meaning it is split by the turn and the river card. Making each just 6% chance each to hit on each spot.
Again just showing the simplistic of the 4 and 2. If you can multiply you can at least do your % of hitting your hand when you are behind in the hand. So if you want to analize my play, don't mind anymore(can never stop learning from any mistakes one makes). Just want to say there are times like the 1st hand yes you can gamble and take a chance, even though the chances are a little higher then the 2nd hand. However just try to remember at least your %'s and odds when you are playing.

Stage #403002062 Tourney ID 1138896 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $100 - 2006-05-17 10:23:55 (ET)
Table: 109 (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 1 - PUNKER62 ($42957.50 in chips)
Seat 2 - TWIZZYBOP ($19597.50 in chips)
Seat 3 - MEESTERCHIPS ($5150 in chips)
Seat 4 - URIAH_HEEP ($5260 in chips)
Seat 5 - RLB1203 ($16050 in chips)
Seat 6 - HMCSHUNTER ($27560 in chips)
Seat 7 - GARY69C ($28465 in chips)
Seat 8 - EMAJONASHON2 ($19835 in chips)
Seat 9 - GAMBLERETTE4 ($1360 in chips)
HMCSHUNTER - Posts small blind $100
GARY69C - Posts big blind $200
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TWIZZYBOP [Qs Qd]
EMAJONASHON2 - Folds
GAMBLERETTE4 - Folds
PUNKER62 - Calls $200
TWIZZYBOP - Raises $3800 to $3800
MEESTERCHIPS - Folds
URIAH_HEEP - Folds
RLB1203 - Folds
HMCSHUNTER - Folds
GARY69C - Folds
PUNKER62 - Calls $3600
*** FLOP *** [8d Js 6c]
PUNKER62 - Checks
TWIZZYBOP - All-In $15797.50
PUNKER62 - Calls $15797.50
*** TURN *** [8d Js 6c] 7♦
*** RIVER *** [8d Js 6c 7d] A♣
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PUNKER62 - Shows [As 10s] (One pair, aces)
TWIZZYBOP - Shows [Qs Qd] (One pair, queens)
PUNKER62 Collects $39495 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($39495)
Board [8d Js 6c 7d Ac]
Seat 1: PUNKER62 won Total ($39495) HI$39495) with One pair, aces [As 10s - P:As,B:Ac,B:Js,P:10s,B:8d]
Seat 2: TWIZZYBOP HI:lost with One pair, queens [Qs Qd - P:Qs,P:Qd,B:Ac,B:Js,B:8d]
Seat 3: MEESTERCHIPS Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: URIAH_HEEP Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: RLB1203 (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: HMCSHUNTER (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: GARY69C (big blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: EMAJONASHON2 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: GAMBLERETTE4 Folded on the POCKET CARDS

 

[robwhufc]

Hand 1 - Why are you betting 10 times the big blind? The generally accepted level is 3 or 4 times. You'll only get called by big hands, and you'll either be well behind (to AA and KK) or coin toss (AK).

He didn't play first hand well, but after he called your bet post flop he was pot committed.

Hand 2. Why are you betting (wtf?) TWENTY times the big blind. The generally accepted level is 3 or 4 times, and usually you will only be called by big hands that you are either way behind (AA and KK) or coin toss (AK). Again, i dont really think this is a pot odds issue - if he thought hand was good enough to call you with, he probably thought he was ahead post-flop. Again, he played it poorly, but so did you!

 

[twizzybop]

LOL I was wondering who was going to ask me such why the big bets.. to be honest.. trying the 2-3 MTT at once.. so I was moving the bar over on the raises just 4-5X BB on both those. When the screen switched to my other games.. I went back to adjust the bar.. I couldn't move off the bar without such big raises... every time I moved the bar to the normal 4-5X BB and move down to click bet it would slide to a big ass bet. So the only way to bet.. lol admit to bet is to bet big... I know it isn't an excuse but that is what happened. However the 3800 I actually thought.. I hope someone calls against this hand wich I got what I wished for.

However the crazy overbets(cause I admit I don't hardly ever do them) was nuts. Yet that is the reason why they happened, believe it or not.

 

[spore]

Okay, no it is not that hard to understand odds. However, as rob said.. pot odds play no part whatsoever on the hands you listed. With the massive pre-flop raises, you are both pretty much pot-committed. I don't like the way the villains played their hands. I would have re-raised all-in preflop, or folded.

But, apart from those two scenarios... I do see people calling with draws when they certainly do not have the odds. Pot odds are extremely important in ring games if you are playing to be a consistent winner. It plays slightly less of a role in tournaments, where you don't really have the luxury of long-term results. In tournaments it's based on gut-instinct, your read on the opponent(s), and how much you're willing to risk on the hand.

So, yeah.. you and villain in both cases played the hand really... bad. BTW, isn't there a box where you can just TYPE in the amount you want to raise?

 

[twizzybop]

So, yeah.. you and villain in both cases played the hand really... bad.

Excuse me.... so pot odds never ever apply to MTT's?...hmmmm.. yes they do.. Making your opponent make a decision based apon odds is a part of hold-em, no matter if you are playing limit, NL, MTT's, Ring games, Sit and go's and last but not least heads up. Not applying odds and %'s no matter what aspect of hold-em you are playing is absolutely ludicrious.

Being married to the pot syndrome isn't an excuse. I will have to find my wonderful thread about being married to the pot and actually playing smart. Mighty big diffrence from the 2...

 

[twizzybop]

Found one old post about it,....

Not Knowing The Odds

Knowing the ODDS and PROBABILITY in poker is a
standard ingredient for success.

You can win some games just by being able to read
your opponents and "guess" at what types of
betting decisions to make...

But ultimately, knowing the odds is what it takes
to be a REAL Texas Holdem poker player.

The good news is, you don't have to be a "math
genius" to know the odds of a hand. There are a
lot of shortcuts and tricks you can use to
calculate pot odds, hand percentages, outs, and
other important numbers.

 

[spore]

Excuse me.... so pot odds never ever apply to MTT's?

If you'd read what I wrote I said.. and I quote:

It plays slightly less of a role in tournaments, where you don't really have the luxury of long-term results.

In no way did I imply that pot odds "never apply". I'm merely saying that.. say I have 1:3 to call and 1:2 hit.. the margin of error there is not extremely big, so you need to pay attention to your chip stack. If it's for a big portion of your chips, I would not be prone to calling. Whereas, I would most likely always call this situation in a cash game.

So the point basically is.. yes you need to pay attention to the pot odds.. but just because you have the pot odds to call in a tournament does not necessarily mean you should.

 

[twizzybop]

If you'd read what I wrote I said.. and I quote:
Yes I read it perfectly and if you read what you also said "You forgot to add the part of you and the villian played it very bad"

Actually I didn't... I made sure the bet(s) as strong as they may be were incorrect odds to call. I want donks, those who don't wish or care to learn the simplistics about odds and %'s calling against me. Even in the other specified hold-em games that were mentioned. I want those to make these calls.

I played limit again the other day,, SB with Q,10 off suit.. Flopped the nut straight of J,K,A rainbow.. well me and this one other guy capped the betting off while another just kept calling us. I automatically thought a set not that splitting a straight would be a bad thing. Turn came no help for nobody and again we capped with the other just calling. River came another J.. so this time I just check/called to find out if I was corrrect. I was which he had a fullhouse KK's over JJ's. No matter what happened in that hand, he wasn't going to fold the 2nd best hand until the river card.

Brings an interesting point.. flopping a set vs a flopped straight or flush.
Odds tell you that you are behind no matter what. Yet depending on the type of hold-em game you are in, how far is one willing to go with that set vs straight or flush?

Now back to the supposive pot commited..

Hand #1 Guy calls bet an 1/7th of his chip stack.. Nothing hit on the flop and now he is behind to my pair. Now I bet 4800 and he has to call 1/3 of his stack in hopes of hitting 24% chance. Still leaving him with more then 10X Big Blinds to keep playing. So the pot committed/married to the pot syndrome is a poor excuse to call on the turn.

#2 Heck no such thing as pot commited here. Knowing full well he was behind even if perhaps I did pair the Jack. He had only 3 outs to win...Willing to take a crippling blow down to 21,000 and putting me well out ahead as chip leader at the table. There is a diffrence here from playing smart instead of hoping,wishing, getting lucky to win.

 

[spore]

Ok, so you do acknowledge that at no point did I imply that "pot odds never ever apply to MTT's"?

As far as my comment as far as you playing the hands badly. Mostly I was alluding to the crazy preflop raises. If you get called with that strong of a pre-flop raise and you're holding JJ or QQ.. if you had been playing with decent players you probably would've been up against AA, KK, QQ maybe AK. JJ TT is less likely to call this.. if they did it'd be a re-raise for sure. In any other case, at best you are in a coin flip scenario. Now, being up against donks who knows that they might have.. any Ace hand is a possibility, as donks traditionaly over-value Ax hands.

In both hands your post-flop play was fine.. you just got unlucky. The opponents play in scenario #1 was pretty well justified (although I would've either folded or gone all-in preflop with AKs with that big of a raise to me). In scenario #2, The donk had 3 outs off the flop, and 7 outs on the turn... 11% -> 15%. Horrible suckout.

So, in essence making super-aggressive preflop raises like that basically sets you up for unexpected results.. i can understand 2x-5xBB preflop, and i can also understand All-in preflop, but anything other than that will result in:
a) winning the blinds
b) getting put all-in
c) having no idea where you are at in the hand <--- like your two examples

Hope you didn't think I was making a personal attack on you or anything, I just think the preflop play is what set you up for disaster on these two hands. Though, you did get unlucky

 

[twizzybop]

I don't disagree with the pre flop play was over betting. I honestly couldn't choose any other way. The arrow/clicker was pointed on the bar to set my bets.. I move to click bet which is on the right hand of the screen, the bar would move right. It was either that or click fold in both hands...

By the way it was A,K off suit, hence the 6 outs coming after the flop.
By calling the turn card he wasn't hoping, wishing to get lucky for runner runner flush. Now on the turn only gives him again a 26% to win basically he will win, rounding closely to 25%. He is only going to win once in every 4 tries.

Now lets for giggles change that hand to say No Limit at 1/2..
So that would be 20 dollars on my big ass over bet.. he would call.. pot is now 41 dollars..now I made a little over a pot bet.. so lets say that is 45 dollars I bet into a 41 dollar pot(now he has 24% to hit) on a 96 dollar pot. He has now missed making the pot at 131 dollars....

I push what he has left and going to estimate it would be about another 100 dollars.. so is it worth the odds to call 100 dollars into a 231 dollar pot especially when you are only going to win once and lose 3 other times?

So one would win a 331 dollars once while losing 993 dollars 3 other times.
When he could have cut the lose at 20 dollars instead of 660 dollars.

That was just an example.. but it does bring an interesting point.. are people more proned to odds when its thier money compared to chips at a table?

How about when it is Limit? Would someone keep calling in Limit with A,K all the way down like this person?

I know limit MTT's they have a blast calling and raising whatever down.

 

[spore]

Oh okay.. yeah he called with about a 27% actually 9 outs for flush + 6 outs for over pair - 2 overlapping = 13 outs. (13x2 = 26 +1 = 27%). The only I can think is that he thought his AK would hold up.. maybe putting you on a weaker hand because of the preflop raise and didn't think you'd hit. He probably wasn't counting on needing to draw out.. one of those "i think i have the best hand... but just in case i have outs".

Yes, people are more prone to adhereing to pot-odds when it's their actual money in ring games. (this was the point I was trying to make the first time ) You can only lose your buy-in in a tournament and the chips gained/lost on any hand do not directly translate into real money value.

As far as how it would've been played in limit... well, first of all... you wouldn't have been able to raise 10xBB pre-flop, hehe. I HAVE seen people call down to the river with AK that didn't hit. However, it's not good play obviously. I could see calling flop/turn if there's just one bet and lots of calls.. and no draws that would overlap your outs... and you think an overpair would win. But most of the time with AK, you'll either hit the flop.. get a draw.. or you fold it.

 

[twizzybop]

I agree spore, but one still must apply odds even in MTT's.
I am going to guess that some people think that odds don't ever become part of MTT(hence why more flush draw chasers are in those).
My opinion anyway.. cause normally they wouldn't fold on a 36% chance to hit a flush on a 2:1 call.

 

[spore]

twizzy twizzy... bud, i've said from my first post in this thread that pot odds do apply in MTT's, *pulls his hair out* lol.

The point, again, is that in addition to the pot odds you need to take in to account your chip stack.. because, once you're out.. you're out. Even if you have the pot odds to call, you're still a favorite to LOSE the hand (most of the time).

Example: It costs you 1/2 your chips to call on a draw you'll only win 36% of the time. Decision time here.. 65% of the time you're going to lose half of your chips in this situation. This is OK in a cash game because you will win more than you lose over time. But in a cash game, you don't have the option of long-term results.. you either hit and win a lot.. or you lose (more likely) and lose half your chips. So, it's just if you want to take a chance or not in this kind of situation.

If it's for a much lower % of your chips, then it's not much different than pot-odds in a cash game... although the dynamics of implied odds change a bit.

 

[Alon Ipser]

Twizzy says "2x2=4"
Spore says "2+2=4"
Twizzy says "No, 2x2=4"
Spore says.....

Sorry guys just having some fun with you

 

[spore]

Lol, that appears to be the case AI. But, now my hypothesis is sqrt(4)=2! Now let's see what happens! haha!

 

[F Paulsson]

Lol, that appears to be the case AI. But, now my hypothesis is sqrt(4)=2! Now let's see what happens! haha!

You're WRONG! It's -2!

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!

 

[gord962]

You're WRONG! It's -2!

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!

WRONG - -2 X -2 is 4, not -4. There is no sq rt of -4 - you have to take the absolute value, in this case the answer is still 2. lol

 

[spore]

No no no no no....

-2 x -2 = 4.. therefore -2 is a possible square root of 4

 

[gord962]

you always use absolute values when working with square roots.

BTW, what's the sqrt of 69???

8 something lol

 

[F Paulsson]

you always use absolute values when working with square roots.

This started out as a joke, I'm sure you realize, but now I feel compelled to just give a factoid:

Whenever you present a square root value, the correct way is to give it as +/-X. So the square root of 4 is +/-2, as both X = 2 and X = -2 solves the equation.

Only looking at the simplified absolute value is a tool for convenience, not mathematically correct.

Sorry about that. Back to your normally scheduled programming.

 

[Stick66]

"Imagine if you will, a poker forum. When a simple debate about "pot odds" turns into a calculus lesson. When time and space lose all meaning. You've entered..."

 

[JAMILE1]

BTW, what's the sqrt of 69???

1 Beaver

 

[gord962]

This started out as a joke, I'm sure you realize, but now I feel compelled to just give a factoid:

Whenever you present a square root value, the correct way is to give it as +/-X. So the square root of 4 is +/-2, as both X = 2 and X = -2 solves the equation.

Only looking at the simplified absolute value is a tool for convenience, not mathematically correct.

Sorry about that. Back to your normally scheduled programming.

lol - I was just being a smartass - it's been 12 years since i took algebra - give me a break

 

[twizzybop]

*shakes head*.. Now look what I started

Got Calculus, Algerbra, and the Twilight Zone all from the use of "Pot Odds"

Now if you can get all that out of hold-em you then can consider yourself a Poker Pro

 

[F Paulsson]

lol - I was just being a smartass - it's been 12 years since i took algebra - give me a break

Sorries!