TPTK vs big bet

[Bombjack]

SB is 35/32/8, but that's just off 28 hands. $25 max table, overall it's pretty tight (except this guy obviously, from his stats).

party poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed)

Button ($28.25)
SB ($53.45)
BB ($17.30)
UTG ($5.48)
Hero ($48.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J

, A

. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, SB (poster) raises to $1.9, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($4.25) 7

, 9

, J

(2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $4.

Turn: ($18.25) 8

(2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero... (well not really that confused, but interested to hear what other people do here...)

 

[joosebuck]

what hands would bet that flop & take over on the turn?

J10/1010

 

[mrsnake3695]

Well unless he's a total Donk (which is certainly a possiblity) It looks like he had a pair and either has a set or over pair with the way he is betting. I can't see a sane player acting like this if he doesn't have jacks beat.

 

[alan1983]

A10 or 1010 or qq are my guesses.

 

[brown110]

As loose as hes been I think he may have a Q 10 and is trying to go ahead and semi-bluff you out of the pot.

 

[Bombjack]

Just to quell the guessing game, I folded so we'll never know. Just wondering if this is how you guys would play it.

 

[blankoblanco]

I fold like a wet napkin.

 

[zebranky]

call?

Just to quell the guessing game, I folded so we'll never know. Just wondering if this is how you guys would play it.

You know, considering I'm often the voice over too much caution around here, I think I might have called this one. If you've got him pegged as a fairly loose player, I think a call is perfectly fine.
His PF mini-raise is both weak and confusing - it leads me to believe he either already had a very good hand (and was therefore building the pot), or wanted to show a little strength to set up a bluff.
I definitely would have bet raised higher on the flop - if I read correctly, the pot was $7.25 but your raise was only $4 more than his bet - I would have raised more (say $7). I think this guy would have called anyway, but I'm fairly sure you had the best hand at this point.

After the turn, all the villian needs is a T - but did he have it? My gut feeling is he didn't (but represented that he did to force you to fold). What sort of hand was he likely to min-raise out-of-position PF with - not many that include a T. TT should raise more, and face-T should be willing to see the flop as cheap as possible. T-rag should fold (although, with loose players, who can tell?)
To tell the truth, I'm a little stumped on this one, but I don't think he has TT or a higher pair, so I'd call.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

ok, preflop is fine for the call, but from my experiences a min-raise often means a big hand at this level, so you should be very careful on the flop. Have you seen this villian make this kind of re-raise before the flop yet? Gotta give him credit for some kinda hand that is probably ahead of AJ if you haven't

FLOP- don't really know why you're raising this flop, you're either well ahead of well behind here. The only draws he could have are probably 10/10 or KQ(if he might re-raise you preflop with this) for the gutshot, but more probably he has something like 10/10-AA or AK.

Turn- I'd just pitch it here even having raised the flop like you did. You're not beating anything but a bluff really. 77/99 and JJ have sets, 10/10 has a straight, and QQ-AA have you beat also. I don't know which of these he might fold on this board, but it looks like he's trying to get his money in here.

 

[dbitel]

OMG...PLEASE DON'T RAISE THIS FLOP

 

[Bombjack]

OMG...PLEASE DON'T RAISE THIS FLOP

Explain?

 

[dbitel]

Explain?

why WOULD you raise this flop?

 

[x-Longshot-x]

why WOULD you raise this flop?

because he has the best hand and doesnt want anyone to draw? but then again im sure you will come up with some crazy stategy to defend yourself again

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

OMG...PLEASE DON'T MAKE SUCH A WEAK RAISE ON THIS FLOP

^^

Seriously a weak raise like that is the worst possible play here (aside from folding). It's acheiving absolutely nothing.

Fold the turn obviously.

Oh and Longshot, please stop being such a troll. Consider this a friendly warning. Just because someone's opinion differs from yours does not make it 'crazy', k?

 

[x-Longshot-x]

^^

Seriously a weak raise like that is the worst possible play here (aside from folding). It's acheiving absolutely nothing.

Fold the turn obviously.

Oh and Longshot, please stop being such a troll. Consider this a friendly warning. Just because someone's opinion differs from yours does not make it 'crazy', k?

When i call him crazy...please let me know...okay? Until then im pretty sure im allowed to have any opinion about someones play that i like. I respect the man, and even his play but some of his ideas are just plain "crazy", k?

 

[Bombjack]

Dorkus do you raise or call this flop?

 

[blankoblanco]

Is the small raise really that bad? If he comes over the top of a raise that looks like it's begging for a call, we can probably know to ditch the hand, and we got the information cheaply. Even if it's a bigger raise, I'm also curious for more in-depth opinions as to why we should raise or why we should just call.

Also, if he checks the turn do we bet, and if so how much?

 

[dbitel]

Guys,

not raising this flop isn't "crazy". It really really is that standard play.

Lets look at preflop. We raised and we got reraised preflop. What does this mean? What range of hands do you put him on? I don't know about you, but when a non-maniac non-light3better reraises me preflop, I think AK/JJ+. Maybe some also have AQ/AJ/77-TT as well. The only reason I recommend not folding preflop is because the size of his reraise is so small.

Now lets look at the flop. We have TPTK, but so what? We're behind JJ+/77/99 still, AK/AQ is drawing to 3 outs, 88/TT only has 6 outs vs us. So what do we call this situation? THATS RIGHT! A WA/WB situation!!!

Now if preflop was a bit different, and he just called and didnt reraise, then you see that his hand range on tyhe flop is so much greater, and we can easily raise for value and maybe even look to get all in. but given that he showed huge strength preflop, we know that his range is much tighter than that, and guess what, we're bhind nearly all of it.

DM is ofc right, IF we choose to raise the flop, we need to be raising a lot more. A pot sized raise is to over $13 here, and we HAVE to fold if he reraises us. So then we lose half a buy-in, with a hang we KNEW was marginal at best given action so far, and we didnt even get past the flop! Not really a very good outcome!

 

[Bombjack]

Good tips...

I wouldn't give his min-re-raise pre-flop any credence for a big hand. With a 32% pre-flop raise % and aggression factor of 8, he clearly has a sticker on his monitor saying "raise or fold - NO CALLING", and he's just trying to take the initiative away.

 

[zebranky]

Lets look at preflop. We raised and we got reraised preflop. What does this mean? What range of hands do you put him on? I don't know about you, but when a non-maniac non-light3better reraises me preflop, I think AK/JJ+. Maybe some also have AQ/AJ/77-TT as well. The only reason I recommend not folding preflop is because the size of his reraise is so small.

Now lets look at the flop. We have TPTK, but so what? We're behind JJ+/77/99 still, AK/AQ is drawing to 3 outs, 88/TT only has 6 outs vs us. So what do we call this situation? THATS RIGHT! A WA/WB situation!!!

DM is ofc right, IF we choose to raise the flop, we need to be raising a lot more. A pot sized raise is to over $13 here, and we HAVE to fold if he reraises us. So then we lose half a buy-in, with a hang we KNEW was marginal at best given action so far, and we didnt even get past the flop! Not really a very good outcome!

okay, 3 quick points:
1) a minraise PF does not mean a dominant hand. half the time it means the other bozo is too lazy to choose his bet, so he just clicks his "raise" button.
2) don't get so caught up on WAWB. Its one theory, that applies to a specific set of circumstance - this ain't it. This one isn't that complicated. On the flop, we're probably ahead - so bet/raise. I would raise more (minimum 3x his bet) to try and price out the draws, and yes, fold to a strong re-raise. WAWB only applies when you and your opponent are either (as the name suggests) Way Ahead (we're not - we're probably ahead, but not solidly so), or Way Behind (we're not - as we're not drawing to many outs here). I certainly agree that IF we raise it should be a lot bigger, but I don't see why calling or folding this flop makes any sense.
3) I think your analysis of what our opponent has is suspect at best:
JJ+/77/99 - do they minraise a flop? Not likely - its either a flat call (hoping to get lucky) or a big raise to buy the PF pot. PF PP's just don't minraise all that often - because they still get called, and will likely have the 2nd best hand after the flop.
AK/AQ is drawing to 3 outs, 88/TT only has 6 outs vs us. Perfect. Even 6 outs is only about 25% chance to turn/river, so as long as we raise sufficiently, we're making good EV odds for ourselves.

 

[dbitel]

zeb,

1) its a minREraise. Pleas note that, as thats probably why you have his hand ranges off.

2a) No, it applies perfectly here. theres no FD on teh flop and no OESD. You can get much more WAWB than that!

2b) Just b/c we're ahead, doesn't make raising best. This should be pretty obvious why.

3a) why would JJ+/77/99 not minREraise preflop? Thats the exactly the sort of hands I expect to see do so. What range do YOU think he 3minbets with preflop?

3b) I get that you don't quite understand the concept of ranges fully, so lets try this. If we KNOW he has AK and just AK, whats best, calling or raising and why?

 

[joosebuck]

if i knew he had AK specifically, i would cold call and let him take control on the river, and raise him there.

 

[zebranky]

lets go point by point again:

1) its a minREraise. Pleas note that, as thats probably why you have his hand ranges off.

Again, we're playing online poker at a relatively low price. The range is still huge, anything from a decent Ax to JT. High PP possible, but see 3a for why I don't think that's likely. And it's only technically a re-raise. The blinds technically count as a bet, but really our hero put in the first real bet, so I consider the PF re-raise the same as a raise at any other point.

2a) No, it applies perfectly here. theres no FD on teh flop and no OESD. You can get much more WAWB than that!
2b) Just b/c we're ahead, doesn't make raising best. This should be pretty obvious why.

I agree, IF we were signifcantly ahead. With just TPTK (and not a high pair, at that), I think its better to raise - if they don't have a better hand, they should either fold or call with bad pot odds, mking you a winner over time. If they have you beat, any re-raise here from your opponent is great information, and I can fold because I'm fairly certain I was beat. And I think we're talking about differnet concepts of WAWB - the way I understand it, it's essentially just increasing your EV when you either know that you have to draw to win, or that your opponent is doing so. flush and open-ended are NOT the only things to draw for - in this example, AK, KQ and AQ are all drawing hands looking to hit.

3a) why would JJ+/77/99 not minREraise preflop? Thats the exactly the sort of hands I expect to see do so. What range do YOU think he 3minbets with preflop?

3b) I get that you don't quite understand the concept of ranges fully, so lets try this. If we KNOW he has AK and just AK, whats best, calling or raising and why?

Why minraise? I said it before, they get called because they didn't price out two-face hands, and the odds are that A/K/Q will hit the flop, so they're more often than not behind on the flop. It's always possible for them to minraise, of course, but its a negative EV for them to do so. They might as well cold-call and play the Implied Odds if they get lucky.
What do I think he's got? given his maniac PT stats, I'm guessing he's got a "never call - raise or fold" rule, and is holding two okay cards - KT, QT, JT, KJ, QJ, etc. A arge PP might minreraise, but I still think a good player would at least make it 3x the previous bet.

Can you give me the logic why a PP would minraise (or minreraise, for that matter?)

finally, IF I could honestly put him on AK, I call the flop (solely because I know his odds of drawing are bad) and possibly the turn (depending on how much he bets, if at all) and raise him off the turn or river if he doesn't hit.

 

[dbitel]

zeb,

OK, lets try again.

1) his range might be huge, it might not. We don't know. But this IS areraise preflop, and a reraise DOES usually mean a lot of stregnth.

2) It certainly does seem that you don't understand the concept of WAWB at all. Not sure if you've read it, but read my post in strategy on it. Its a VERY VERY important concept and one that very obviously aplies here. If you still then don't understand the concept, PM me, and I'll try and help you out.

Let me ask you a few questions, if he just calls your raise, are you putting any more money in the pot? How do you expect him to play KJ vs a raise? What about JT? What about AA? What you will see, is that, like always in poker, raising for information is TERRIBLE. Why? Because the cost of the information is 99% of the time more than the cost of making him fold worse hands and paying off better hands and we never know how correct the information is.

3) No good player ever minraises preflop ever. So I think its very obvious this guy isn't too good, so I wouldn't try to reas too much into his reasoning. He mgiht be minraising AA to eek out value. He might be minraising KJo cos Its not good enough for a bigger raise. He might be minraising 77 to build a bigger pot if he flops a set etc etc.

Finally, if you say when he has AK, just calling is best. What when he has JJ+? What about when he has KJ? What about when he has 22? In fact, what hands can he have where raising is actually best? Cos I certainly cant think of any!

 

[zebranky]

zeb,

OK, lets try again.

1) his range might be huge, it might not. We don't know. But this IS areraise preflop, and a reraise DOES usually mean a lot of stregnth.

2) It certainly does seem that you don't understand the concept of WAWB at all. Not sure if you've read it, but read my post in strategy on it. Its a VERY VERY important concept and one that very obviously aplies here. If you still then don't understand the concept, PM me, and I'll try and help you out.

Let me ask you a few questions, if he just calls your raise, are you putting any more money in the pot? How do you expect him to play KJ vs a raise? What about JT? What about AA? What you will see, is that, like always in poker, raising for information is TERRIBLE. Why? Because the cost of the information is 99% of the time more than the cost of making him fold worse hands and paying off better hands and we never know how correct the information is.

3) No good player ever minraises preflop ever. So I think its very obvious this guy isn't too good, so I wouldn't try to reas too much into his reasoning. He mgiht be minraising AA to eek out value. He might be minraising KJo cos Its not good enough for a bigger raise. He might be minraising 77 to build a bigger pot if he flops a set etc etc.

Finally, if you say when he has AK, just calling is best. What when he has JJ+? What about when he has KJ? What about when he has 22? In fact, what hands can he have where raising is actually best? Cos I certainly cant think of any!

I guess the longstanding problem I have with your tactics (and continual citation of WAWB) is that it always seems to suggest calling down rather than aggressive play. You never seem to want to add value to the pot, except by maybe tricking your opponent into bluffing into you, and therefore putting yourself on the spot instead of the opponent. There are plenty of hands I would bet into that flop - obviously, you would say I'm incorrect to do so with everyone of them. Bottom line, I'll bet if I think I have the best hand, or if I think I can represent a hand better than the one my opponent is holding. That is the foundation of betting vs checking for me, and after that it comes down to math and guts.
I'll certainly check out your post in Stategy, but if it is the same interpretation of that method that you've been proposing on the various HA threads, I really think its wrong 90% of the time.