Time for you guys to flame me again

[dbitel]

Guy is a 25/17/3

full tilt poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $444.10
Hero: $418.30
CO: $424.10
Button: $640.60
SB: $463
BB: $294.65
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with

UTG folds, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.



Flop: ($32, 2 players)

SB bets $25, Hero.....?

 

[Debi]

Okay - I was brave enough to vote, but not brave enough to explain. I would call.

 

[joosebuck]

$25 into a $32 pot. Could be a set.. raise here and see what he does.

 

[joosebuck]

Could also be a semi-bluff like 45c with gutshot + flush draw.

 

[Stick66]

Need a read on the guy.

Solid player = Flush draw trying to scare away middling hands. Raise him to make a stand or call him and let his draw cost him.

Donkey player = A set, 2 pair, or AK. Fold and get him later.

Again, depends on the read.

 

[mischman]

You know there is an edit button?

Could also be a semi-bluff like 45c with gutshot + flush draw.

$25 into a $32 pot. Could be a set.. raise here and see what he does.

This, raise $30/$35 see what he does.

Calling is horrible, what are you going to do on the turn if he bets? what if the turn is a straight/flush/ace card and he bets? what he if checks?

I would raise $30/25 and see what he does, calling to hope he misses and just show down a hand is not the most profitable way of poker

 

[pocketTWOs]

i dont think KQ is worth $14, preflop in a ring game.
bad bet, got you in deap, do-do

cant say what you should do, without info on how your rep at the table is.
$14 preflop with KQ, i dont think your rep is too good here, if you been doing that for any amount of time.

but i raise to $100, and see whats up.
i dont play these limits, unless its limit tables, and live.

 

[dbitel]

pocketTWOs,

i want to wait for more replies until I reveal what i think the best flop play.

But I was running my usual 20/16/3 TAG game and preflop is 100% standard

 

[joosebuck]

i know there is an edit button, but now i have 2 posts instead of one!

 

[pocketTWOs]

I was running my usual 20/16/3 TAG game and preflop is 100% standard

ok i have no idea what that means,
i will just keep reading and see if i can learn something.

 

[zebranky]

Raise... probably.

I would raise too (call it 3x his bet or so), because I can't think of many hands that should flat call your PF that would hit this board better than you did, and your hand isn't really waiting for more cards.

For once, though, I could see myself flat calling here as a "shake it up" play - but I'd be betting/raising huge on the turn unless a club or Ace came out.

 

[blankoblanco]

On one hand I like raising to $75 and folding to a push, so you have a chance of quickly finding out you're way behind and ditching it. Then again, I never like building a big pot with just TPGK, and if he just calls it seems like it might get awkward, so in reality I might just call. Interested to hear more thoughts on the best course of action here.

 

[ChuckTs]

Voted raise and fold to a push.

I raise because he could be making this play with a flush draw, a set, or even another king, and you need to find out where you're at aswell as protect vs any draws. If he comes over the top, it's an easy muck.

*waits for answer that will both inform and surprise me like the last poll did....*

And MrS:

Donkey player = A set, 2 pair, or AK. Fold and get him later.

Why does leading into the PF raiser with a set make that person a donkey?
It's actually a very strong move IMO; the preflop raiser is supposed to have a strong hand (right? especially if he's TAG). Hopefully he hit his K and will now make a raise to protect vs draws/ for value etc, you can come over the top of him and put him at a difficult decision for all his chips.

What would you rather, a check-raise? or slowplay on the FD board?

 

[Joe_Mac]

I agree with raise to see were your hand is. He could be on a draw and betting into it, or he could have a set and want to protect his hand from the flush draw. So raising the SB bet is the best way to find out were your at. SB will probably come back over the top of you to protect his hand, then you will fold.

Leading out with a set is the right move in this situation because he doesn't know what Hero has. This also will maximize this return. If he checks and Hero missed, hero could very well just check to see the free card, and if a club hits, the SB is screwed if he has a set.(unless he has an unbelievable read).

Voted raise and fold to a push.

I raise because he could be making this play with a flush draw, a set, or even another king, and you need to find out where you're at aswell as protect vs any draws. If he comes over the top, it's an easy muck.

*waits for answer that will both inform and surprise me like the last poll did....*

And MrS:
Why does leading into the PF raiser with a set make that person a donkey?
It's actually a very strong move IMO; the preflop raiser is supposed to have a strong hand (right? especially if he's TAG). Hopefully he hit his K and will now make a raise to protect vs draws/ for value etc, you can come over the top of him and put him at a difficult decision for all his chips.

What would you rather, a check-raise? or slowplay on the FD board?

 

[joosebuck]

i bet into pf raisors more than i trap, because trapping is so flavor of the month that it can be very obvious. AK flopping TPTK to my set is most likely not going anywhere

 

[Tammy]

I chose raise/fold to push. To my (very) amatuer thinking, as others have said, you need to see where you stand in this hand. Villain is out of position, has called your preflop raise, and has led out on the flop with a good size bet. Raising will accomplish two things--define your position in this hand, price out a flush draw semi-bluff.

BTW--dbitel--I've really enjoyed reading your analysis so far--they've given me much food for thought. Keep 'em coming!

 

[Bombjack]

I flat call because your hand is pretty good but not that strong. If your opponent has a real hand it's unlikely to be weaker than yours, since he called out of position. He's fairly tight... when we raise, are we expecting him to have KJ or KT most of the time? Possibly some of the time if they're suited, but KQ or AK are more likely if he does have a King. You're keeping your opponent guessing and forcing him to decide what to do on the turn without much extra info, while exercising pot control. Good chance as well that he makes this move with a hand like TT or JJ, to see if his hand is good, or even taking a stab with air. In these cases he'll just fold if you raise, so there's not much to be gained.

 

[ChuckTs]

I flat call because your hand is pretty good but not that strong. If your opponent has a real hand it's unlikely to be weaker than yours, since he called out of position. He's fairly tight... when we raise, are we expecting him to have KJ or KT most of the time? Possibly some of the time if they're suited, but KQ or AK are more likely if he does have a King. You're keeping your opponent guessing and forcing him to decide what to do on the turn without much extra info, while exercising pot control. Good chance as well that he makes this move with a hand like TT or JJ, to see if his hand is good, or even taking a stab with air. In these cases he'll just fold if you raise, so there's not much to be gained.

Good points bombjack, but like mischman mentions above, what do we do when (or if) he bets the turn? We're going to cold-call the flop bet and fold the turn? We get no info by calling...

 

[Bombjack]

If the turn is a blank like [7d], you have a decision based on the size of your opponent's bet. A flush draw will either check or bet small and this wouldn't be a bad time to raise, or you could just call knowing they're only 20% to hit on the river. If they bet pot it's a bit trickier, but you still get to see the river for not much more than if you'd raised on the flop. I'd tend to call a pot bet on the turn... 2 pair on this flop is next to impossible. AK re-pops pre-flop. If he has 22 or 66 that's unlucky, but does he have these most of the time?

The other disadvantage to raising the flop is that if he has AA or AK or 2 pair, you're not giving yourself the chance to draw out on him.

 

[F Paulsson]

Guy is a 25/17/3

... stacks are deep ...

SB bets $25, Hero.....?

My stab - and I don't really play NL, so pay no attention to me:

Breaking this down into groups of hands that villain can have:

1. Something that beats us
Essentially AK and sets, given his stats. Out of position, he's not likely to play K6, I'd think.

2. Something that has a lot of outs
At worst [Kc][Jc] or [Ac][Jc] (both have 12 outs), but all flush draws are in here.

3. Something that has some outs
I'm thinking A6 for five outs, or possibly [Kc][Jh] for three outs + backdoor flush draw.

4. Something that has very few outs
Pocket pairs lower than kings, paired kings without backdoor draws and kickers lower than queen. Pure bluffs count as well.

Against group 1, we want to put in as little cash as possible. From group 2, we want to get money in when our equity is positive. From group 3 and 4, we want to avoid shutting him down.

Rough guess as to how likely any of the different scenarios are:

1: 10%. He seems likely to repop AK PF, and sets happen rarely. Still, let's give him some credit for a real hand.

2. 25%. This makes sense.

3. 25%. This makes sense, too.

4. 40%. Bluffs, weaker kings, pocket pairs... A lot of hands go into this group. About as likely as 2 and 3, but there are more hands here.

We don't want to pay off group 1, but they're so unlikely that we can't afford to fold. We shouldn't raise, because the largest group - 4 - would simply fold, and for group 2 and 3, we'd be better served to call the flop and raise the turn (because our equity will be greater on the turn than on the flop if they miss, and we reserve the option of folding to a turn that gets really ugly somehow).

So I call.

 

[Debi]

... stacks are deep ...

So I call.

Wow - imagine that. Me and FP thinking the same thing.

 

[alan1983]

id raise. He could very much be taking a stab at this. With top pair and 2nd kicker i wouldnt mind winning it right there. Plus just calling could invite a big bet on turn which would maybe then force you to fold to what could still be a weaker hand.

 

[Zameus]

I call and re-evaluate on the turn. He's paying for his draw if he has 2 clubs so let him draw. Raising just to fold only puts more money in the pot with TPGK when we're far behind, and makes a weaker hand fold. How far behind is Kx of clubs here? Best of all, we have position. An Ace or a club on the turn combined with the SB's action will greatly help to define his hand.

A blank on the turn and he checks gets a 2/3 pot sized bet from me. I don't think a set or AK checks a blank turn after a flop bet and call.

 

[Egon Towst]

i dont think KQ is worth $14, preflop in a ring game.
bad bet, got you in deap, do-do

I don`t see anything wrong with this in a short-handed game. This is exactly how I would normally play it, although I do agree that KQ would not be a particularly strong hand at a full table.

In response to the main question, my first instinct was to raise (and fold to a push), but FP has persuaded me with his analysis, so I voted call.

 

[tenbob]

Similar concept to the WA/WB thread, but it does have some differences. This time we also have to include marginally ahead as well.

A big raise back will simply induce weaker hands to fold, including some of the time the flush draw, which we dont want, we want him to pay for his draw. Ok someone mentioned above that he doing that anyway, hes not, we are giving a free card by calling.

I think this is very marginal, we dont want to play a big pot with top pair 2nd kicker even on a 6 handed table.

I like the raise/fold to a push option. Personally if i was the sb and flopped like this with A-x suited, then this is the way i would play it. Calling, and seeing how the hand progresses excercies some degree of caution and pot control, but again we are giving that flush draw a free draw, Calling gives K-x a chance to hit 2 pair, give A-x a chance of spiking an ace, calling here the more i think about it the worse it is.

We gain no information, calling a $25 flop bet, will no doubt lead in a lot of cases to a much bigger turn bet which we have to fold to. BUT here is where it gets interesting. Calling a $25 flop bet lets us see a turn card, and likely a river card in position for the same price as a decent flop re-raise. We have position in the hand, we look very very strong flat calling a flop and turn bet for the same price as our flop raise. And its likely if he misses his draws or feel his hand is inferior we can expect to see a check on the river.

Marginal, I think id still go the aggressive route though.