Is there any way I could have seen this coming?

[myxiplx]

New to the table, I've seen 2-3 hands but not enough to get any kind of a read. Table seems pretty passive, plenty being folded pre-flop & after that betting looks fairly standard.

All through this hand I was wandering why he would be giving me odds to chase. I thought he may have a higher flush draw, but thought that unlikely.

When I called on the river I thought I had the best hand but because his betting had confused me I resisted the temptation to raise on the river. However I could have lost a lot of money here. Is there any way I could have spotted the danger?

Myx

PS. Had I been in his shoes, I'd have bet much more on the river, probably overbetting slightly. Would this have been a good play?


***** Hand History for Game 5406191215 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, October 31, 07:39:50 ET 2006
Table Table 125417 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: ciromus ( $21.20 )
Seat 3: ajfa83 ( $5 )
Seat 4: Rushkii ( $14.95 )
Seat 5: thulsa_ ( $32.10 )
Seat 6: SmoothTrax ( $27.95 )
Seat 7: AlexK_Brasil ( $11.50 )
Seat 8: SOKRATES1973 ( $14.85 )
Seat 9: nutti123 ( $19.48 )
Seat 10: UltraSafe ( $11.95 )
Seat 1: myxiplx ( $22.65 )
SmoothTrax posts small blind [$0.10].
AlexK_Brasil posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ Js Ts ]
SOKRATES1973 folds.
nutti123 folds.
UltraSafe calls [$0.25].
myxiplx calls [$0.25].
ciromus folds.
ajfa83 folds.
Rushkii folds.
thulsa_ folds.
SmoothTrax calls [$0.15].
AlexK_Brasil checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4s, 6d, 3s ]
SmoothTrax checks.
AlexK_Brasil bets [$0.35].
UltraSafe folds.
myxiplx calls [$0.35].
SmoothTrax folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
AlexK_Brasil bets [$0.50].
myxiplx calls [$0.50].
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
AlexK_Brasil bets [$0.40].
myxiplx calls [$0.40].
AlexK_Brasil shows [ 5s, 6s ] a straight flush, Six high.
myxiplx doesn't show [ Js, Ts ] a flush, Jack high.
AlexK_Brasil wins $3.35 from the main pot with a straight flush, Six high.

 

[N0_Y0ur_R0le]

Well, I'll I can say is, nice job of only losing $1.50 or so, cause had u raised it up, the other guy might have pushed all in, thats the play I would have made if your raised me after that river came, it would look like an ovious flush. With that said you went with your read of him possibly having a Q, K, or A high flush draw and made a good smooth call. The other guy was a weak post flop player and doesn't know how to value bet people when they're on ovious draws. A main reason why he bet so small tho was cause he had a made hand (strait) to go with a flush draw, so he wasn't to worried about getting outdrawn. (didnt put u on a flush draw) Fish never put other people on the same draw, but they'l learn soon enough. I think I would have raised on the river cause that river bet was really weak/protective looking, and I think most pros would to, so I wouldnt let this one hand stop you from getting paid off the next time you make a flush on the river, cause in a cash game, especially low limits, people will pay you off when they have straits in that spot.

 

[N0_Y0ur_R0le]

Oh, and yeah, a overbet would be the right play if you were in his shoes, your opponent could easily have a flush draw in that spot, and if he does, your gonna get paid off regardless of how much you bet, so make it big. For that small of a pot, I'd probably pop it 1 and a 1-2x the pot. I might even just move all in which would look stupid, but he calls you there if he has a q high flush or better.

 

[medeiros13]

I think the board pairing and the fact that he had low suited connectors saved you some cash. (although why you hit your hand with the OP's hand and not bet out pretty aggressively is beyond me) My question to you is did you even think about the straight flush possibility on the river. At that point you have 2s 3s 4s on the board...right up someones ally if they're playing suited connector 56. My question to you is did this come into your mind?

As far as the OP's play, I think he put you on a higher flush draw and was hoping you'd raise him. Then I think you see a big re-raise. The call on your part was a good play..but not if you hadn't seen the straight flush possibility.


Edit: I want to be clear that I don't think you should worry about the worst case scenario every hand you play. My point is, would you see that if he stuck a big re-raise on you...

 

[myxiplx]

Nope, gotta be honest and admit that I didn't even see the str flush possibility.

I know it's one of my weaknesses, most of the time I'm pretty good at getting away from danger but every so often I'll miss a straight, or hit something big myself & miss a more obvious danger.

I'm not too worried about it, I know I've got a lot to learn, and just accept that as something I'm having to work on right now. This hand really played into both of my weaknesses though and I think it's a sign I'm improving that I didn't raise on the river. I would have done that instantly a month back, but even though I didn't read his betting well something about the hand screamed danger.

Thinking back, I think the problem may be that I subconciously look for the strongest holdings first. I saw the flush possibility on the board, decided with his betting and the amount I was risking that I wasn't scared of him holding a flush, and then didn't look for straights, etc..

Knowing that I can miss straights this way, and with a straight flush being such a rare hand I think this could be an important hand for me to learn from.

I'm now wondering whether I could have learnt more by raising the turn. There is a danger of a boat here, and that's why I flat called - I figure I'll be against a boat sometimes but more often than not my flush will still be good. I don't risk a lot of chips if there's any chance of a boat, and rely on the law of averages to put me ahead in the long run.

But then do I really learn anything by betting on the turn, and am I just risking more chips?

Myx

 

[NineLions]

Just a question: How much does one need to consider the possibility of a straight flush, given the infrequency of it arising?


In this situation I don't see how you could have seen him on this given his betting pattern. It's probably a good thing you didn't have the Ace instead of the J, or it woulda cost a lot more.

 

[Bombjack]

Don't worry too much about straight flushes... they're so rare that unless you have a really good reason to think that's what they have, you should pay it off.

Personally I'd have lost a lot more money on this hand, but this would be made up for in the 95% of times when they don't have a straight flush. I would raise on the river and fold to a re-raise.

I'd also have raised on the flop, with my two suited overcards, which would make me a favourite to a pair or medium overpair like 88. You're still 35% to win on the flop with the actual cards he had, and it's rare that you're up against a straight flush draw with a pair, the biggest draw you can get.

A raise on the turn will also get rid of the drawing hands, even though that's what you've got. Your opponent might even have folded there to a big raise, as all he has is a pair.

 

[medeiros13]

Don't worry too much about straight flushes... they're so rare that unless you have a really good reason to think that's what they have, you should pay it off.

Personally I'd have lost a lot more money on this hand, but this would be made up for in the 95% of times when they don't have a straight flush. I would raise on the river and fold to a re-raise.

I don't disagree with you or the poster above discussing the rarity of a straight flush. However, if you put in a good bet on the river and got a huge re-raise with a J high flush, are you calling it?? I would have a hard time seeing a 2 3 4 of the same suit out there. Not to mention with the board pairing, there's a boat possibility.

 

[Bombjack]

^^ That's why I fold to a re-raise. But most of the time he's betting with less than a flush, especially if he's betting from the start.