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Message: [QUOTE="F Paulsson, post: 477653, member: 6979"] Examining reasons to raise at all: 1. Getting hands to make incorrect calls 2. Getting hands to make incorrect folds 3. Building a pot with a potential monster 4. Semi-bluffing There are more reasons, but these are the ones I think are the most important for this hand. Notice how "driving people out" is not a reason to raise. So let's examine these four reasons and see how they stack up - pun intended. [B]1. Raising to get incorrect calls.[/B] Perhaps the best reason in general to raise, it doesn't so much apply here. Most hands that are liable to call at all probably have at least three outs on us, and often six, not counting strong draws such as flushes or straights. While we may be putting in money with the best equity, the gain is likely to be very small. [B]2. Raising to get incorrect folds.[/B] A better hand than ours will not fold when we raise, ever. In fact, by re-opening the betting we're exposing what could have been a cheap flop where we hit a set to the risk of being re-raised and forced to fold. This reason is not in play. [B]3. Raising to build a pot with a potential monster[/B] This is a sneaky reason to raise. By minraising, everyone will call (virtually for certain) and this will in effect mean that we've chosen to raise the stakes for this particular hand. We're no longer playing $.50/$1 with big stacks, we're playing $1/$2 with short(er) stacks. Why would we want to do that? Because although we won't hit a big hand often on the flop (one time in eight), making the pot big now will entice more calls on the flop once we get where we want to be, and our chance of taking someone's entire stack when we hit our set just got twice as easy. Don't make this play always, and don't usually make it out of position, but don't ignore it. It's not horrible. The other two raises are two big to serve this purpose as some people may fold, which is not the idea behind this reason. [B]4. Semi-bluffing[/B] By raising now, at a field where no one has shown much strength, we may be able to either pick up the pot right now, or we may be able to pick it up with a continuation bet on the flop. If you're calling a $12 bet before the flop with J-9s and the flop comes A-J-3, you're not going to be thinking that you have the best hand. When we're semibluffing, we're hoping that people will fold either instantly or later on. A minraise doesn't entice folding. Bigger raises are required. [B]If we raise, how much should it be?[/B] If we raise to build a pot, it should be the minimum. If we raise as a semi-bluff, it has to be one of the larger raises; either the pot ($7) or a complete overbet. The problem with making the very large raise is that we're risking an unnecessary amount. The hands we'd love to fold that would actually give way to a raise (KJ, QJ) are about as likely to fold to a $7 raise as a $12 one. And the hands that we'd like to fold but can't realistically expect to (AK, JJ) won't fold anyway. So why put in more money when we achieve the same benefit but with less? So raising $12 is out no matter what reason I have to raise. But I have to choose one of them, and I'm going to pick [B]check[/B]. I don't want to come out semi-bluffing out of position against a field of unknowns. I don't want to be trying fancy plays like building a pot when I don't know who I'm dealing with. I want to see a cheap flop and figure these people out before I trip over my own feet trying to outplay them. [/QUOTE]

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