One more: 3/6 blind defense - quiz!

[F Paulsson]

Villain is a decent, but not great, TAG. He's slightly too loose preflop, and not quite aggressive enough. He, being a decent player, will steal with a fairly large range from the CO. Something like 22+, T9s+, JTo+.

poker stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) FPaulsson is BB with [Qh] [9d]
UTG folds, CO raises, 2 folds, FPaulsson calls.

Flop: [6d] [9h] [Ks] (4.33SB, 2 players)
FPaulsson checks, CO bets, FPaulsson raises, CO calls.

Turn: [9s] (4.17BB, 2 players)
FPaulsson bets, CO raises, FPaulsson...

Now my question to you is: Should I 3-bet or go for a checkraise on the river? Don't forget to say why you want to do one way or another, and compare it to the alternative.

... and of course also include what range I should put him on when he raises the turn. For shits and giggles, include what hand you suppose he thinks I have.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

What's your line on the river (assume it's a blank, 3h or something) if you 3-bet and villain caps the turn?

 

[ChuckTs]

Now my question to you is: Should I 3-bet or go for a checkraise on the river? Don't forget to say why you want to do one way or another, and compare it to the alternative.

... and of course also include what range I should put him on when he raises the turn. For shits and giggles, include what hand you suppose he thinks I have.

My guesses for his range:

Kx, 66 or maybe 77-> (AA excluded or he prob would have 3-bet flop). Who knows; he could have face-9 for trips aswell, (or FH if he has K9).

I think that either way you bet this hand (3-bet, lead or smooth-call, checkraise) you're probably only going to get 3 more BBs out of him. (2 on turn, one on river, or one on turn, 2 on river).

I like 3-betting the turn because it's not guaranteed that he'll bet behind you on the river, and you could be losing value bets should he decide to check behind you.

 

[Bombjack]

I'd 3-bet the turn. He might not bet the river so your cunning check-raise plan could fall flat.

 

[hypnotx]

Rookie Reply

Rookie here. Just to jump in with both feet...

From the CO he is probably trying to steal with Kx (maybe even K6 or K9 for the 2P) My guess is that he has you on Kx as well and he probably has the other 9 (i know the odds are steep) but he showed no fear of it after your raises. Personally, I slow down here cause I think he may have hit the FH. But A.) I am a rookie and B.) I play kind of tight. C.) I dont play much limit.

Everyone is welcome to critique my evaluation as I am sure I will learn tons from any feedback.

-cheers

 

[Dingodaddy23]

I hate your flop raise because i think he 3-bets a king here, and most hands you are ahead of are folding. my view when he calls is he plans to raise pretty much any turn. Now that you hit your trips, you lead and he raises as planned because the 9 probalbly doesnt change much in his eyes. After he raises turn, i definately put him on a king and 3-bet 100% of the time because most hands he would bet on the river are calling this 3-bet and river. I think going for river check-raise is awful because he checks a king behind OFTEN.

 

[F Paulsson]

I hate your flop raise because i think he 3-bets a king here, and most hands you are ahead of are folding.

I disagree that most hands that I'm ahead of are folding. There are a lot of face cards that will peel a flop checkraise, but even if he does fold A-J or something like that, I actually want him to fold. He has 6 live outs and is being offered at least 7:1. Him folding A-J is good for me.

But the raise is primarily for value, of course. Also, checkraising out of the BB is something I do fairly often, and sometimes with absolutely nothing. For my absolute-nothings to succeed I have to do it with real hands from time to time, too.

I'm not really sure what the alternative is, though. Are you suggesting that I fold? Or that I slowplay a pair of nines, queen-kicker?

my view when he calls is he plans to raise pretty much any turn. Now that you hit your trips, you lead and he raises as planned because the 9 probalbly doesnt change much in his eyes. After he raises turn, i definately put him on a king and 3-bet 100% of the time because most hands he would bet on the river are calling this 3-bet and river. I think going for river check-raise is awful because he checks a king behind OFTEN.

Let's look at the alternatives:

1. He has a king with some kind of kicker.
2. He has a huge hand, AA or now some kind of fullhouse.
3. He missed with his A-rag hand that he tried to steal with.
4. He has a 9 himself.

Actions that we can count on:
* His raise preflop doesn't tell us anything about either of these four being more likely than the other.

* He did NOT 3-bet the flop. Now, this means one of three things: He's either looking to score a cheap turn and find something he likes about it, he has a big hand and wants to lure me to bet again on the turn or he has a weak hand and is now looking to get to showdown cheaply.

* He raised the turn. There went the "go to showdown cheaply" scenario, unless he improved on this turn (which he might have - a hand with a 9 fits his play). It does shift the focus a lot more to him having a big hand, and somewhat deflates the possibility of him having missed the flop.

Very often, he'll have a strong hand at this point. Some portion of the time, let's say 10%, he's being very gutsy with an ace-high hand, and some of the time he has trips. When he raises this turn, does he ever have anything weaker than KJ?

... and would KJ really check behind on the river?

My argument for checkraising is that if he has a king, it's likely to be a strong one by the way he's played it, so if he has a king, I'm guaranteed two more bets from him anyway. What's interesting is what happens if he has a hand like A-J and is taking a shot at the pot.

 

[F Paulsson]

What's your line on the river (assume it's a blank, 3h or something) if you 3-bet and villain caps the turn?

Check/call. If I 3-bet and he caps, he's yelling "ME HAVE FULL HOUSE" at the top of his lungs, and I have no real reason to believe he's lying about it

That said, the turn cap is a tilting AA or a weaker-kicker (or split pot) trips often enough for me to see it down. I don't expect to win often if the turn gets capped though.

 

[hypnotx]

When do we see it?

Man! First post that I have gotten involved in and I can already tell I am going to LOVE this site.

When do we get to see how it played out?

 

[F Paulsson]

This was about to slip out of the front page, but if I remember it right, I check-raised the river, villain showed a suited KQ and my hand was good.