Input please

[Schatzdog]

Hey guys,

I'll post this one bit by bit. All input is greatly appreciated.

Reads: darreljahn is quite loose PF and limp calls alot. danols is very rockish, and I have a pretty tight image at this point. (and recovering from flu)

PokerStars Game #7083804968: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) –
2006/11/19 - 01:37:32 (ET) Table 'Wingolfia' 9-max
Seat #3 is the button Seat 1: Lucy2bet ($15 in chips)
Seat 2: danols ($23.05 in chips)
Seat 3: Train_Time ($25.90 in chips)
Seat 4: bobobdave ($31.45 in chips)
Seat 5: Bluetones ($27.95 in chips)
Seat 7: trottingkrip ($25 in chips)
Seat 8: darreljanh ($47.45 in chips)
Seat 9: sir29 ($17.55 in chips)
bobobdave: posts small blind $0.10 Bluetones: posts big blind $0.25
Lucy2bet: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Bluetones [Kc Ks]
trottingkrip: folds
darreljanh: calls $0.25
sir29: folds
Lucy2bet: checks
danols: raises $1.25 to $1.50 This has to be big strength. AA/KK/QQ/AK
Train_Time: folds
bobobdave: folds
Bluetones: calls $1.25 I don't like this call at all. Surely this should be a re-raise to 2.50?
darreljanh: calls $1.25 Expected

Comments or is this a very standard re-raise?

 

[Egon Towst]

I don`t see a problem with your call. Given your reads, you won`t get either player to fold by any modest re-raise of the kind you suggest. All you will achieve is to get more of your chips in the middle when you`re not confident of being ahead.

See the flop. If there`s an Ace and Danols bets at all heavy, you can still lay this down cheaply. If there`s no scare card, that would be the time to get aggressive.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Egg on Toast, I don't get it. How are we "not confident of being ahead" here? There's one and only one hand we're behind! If we call and undercards to our Ks flop are we any more confident we're ahead?

Repop to $4.5 total, minraising serves no real purpose other than a pot sweetener, and calling is inviting sir limpcallsalot into the pot with two cards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it cuts our $equity in the pot as opposed to if we had reraised a decent amount, rock had called, and sir limpcallsalot had folded (which is likely). If rock pushes back you have to be willing to commit all your chips preflop - if AA vs KK happens it happens but you will lose more in the long run by incorrectly folding when you're actually up against AK/QQ.

 

[Jack Daniels]

I think you need to reraise here to try to isolate and to gain information. You already believe danols is big strength based on your read. And Darreljanh probably has a similar read of danols that you do. He also sounds like one of those players that automatically calls 6x BB raises PF if he thinks he has live cards and hopes to hit the flop hard to bust the giant hand once in a blue moon. A reraise here will make the limp call fisherman fold as well. As for danols, see what he does. If he is that rockish, he will likely only call with anything but AA (with which he would play back at you). It's possible that he could slowplay AA as well, I suppose, but rocks don't usually sit around waiting for giant hands then slow play them to get outdrawn (unless he is super tight passive). Then take it to the flop and re-evaluate based on texture.

 

[Schatzdog]

*** FLOP *** [Th 5d 4d]
Bluetones: bets $3 I think this is big enough
darreljanh: folds
danols: calls $3

Interesting call. What's the range now?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Surely he repops the flop with AA?

I know you said his pfr meant AA-QQ/AK, but I don't think that even with a huge rock you can discount JJ-TT and AQ from his preflop range.

The fact he's not raised the flop makes me very confident we're ahead, opponent's most likely holdings being QQ-JJ/AK, maybe AQ (AdKd and AdQd being more likely than other AK/AQs). Lead the turn, fold to a push on an A turn, think about it but probably end up calling on a diamond turn, call a push on any other turn.

If he calls again on the turn you should probably be getting it all in on most rivers.

 

[Bombjack]

Re-raise pre-flop every time. There is no player in the world, no matter how rockish, that only plays AA, especially when there are only 7 people at the table.

As to what he's got on the flop, if he's a good but tight player, his range is pretty limited. Two high diamonds or a pair of Tens. Any higher pair and he's raising. Or if your table image is of a tricky player, he could make a loose call with AK / AQ / 99 / 88 - less likely though if he is a rock as you describe.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Interesting call, I agree. We put him on a big hand based on your read. But I don't know that you can truly cut his range by much. I would've expected to see a reraise with AA/KK (unless he's waiting to pop you on the turn - which isn't very likely given his image). QQ/JJ/AK sooted are reasonable calls here I think.

Unless I added wrong, there was $4.85 in the pot on the flop. Your $3.00 bet (a little under 2/3 of the pot) gives him about 2.6 to 1 pot odds with a lot of implied odds if he hits on AK or has you beaten already with AA. I would have preferred to see a larger bet, in my opinion. Something around 3/4 pot or a little more, I think (like $3.75 - $4.00). Based on his expected range, you are more likely leading at this point than not since he only called. So a larger bet here will tell you how serious he is about the hand and sweetens the pot for your most likely lead. Then lead turn no matter what.

On the positive side, I would not expect to be up against a set at this point since the cards are much lower that villian's expected PF range to raise 6x BB.

Edit: I have to either type faster or use fewer words, as I'm essentially agreeing with DM and BJ here but they got their responses in first.

 

[Bombjack]

Also, I would probably check-raise him on this flop. He's going to bet whatever so long as he's reasonably aggressive, but may just lay it down straight away when you bet into him. He's only checking behind with a big Ace (rather than a high pair), so if an Ace comes on the turn, that's poker, you can lay it down, but it's only a 6% chance, and an equal chance he'll catch his Queen or Jack kicker, which is good for you. If he has a high pair, you're ahead so long as he doesn't have AA (an in that case you're toast anyway).

 

[Egon Towst]

Since the flop is not bad, from your point of view, I think you need to be more aggressive here.

I agree with JD that your $3 bet makes Danols` life too easy. Apart from any other possibilities, I`d be concerned that he might easily be holding AK or AQ of Diamonds, so I`d want to overbet the pot and make it too costly for him to chase the flush.

 

[Kenzie 96]

Don't know squat about playing ring games but it seems to me Qhris is spot on. You have to aggresively push preflop with your hand. You are are in early position after the flop so bet & learn now.

 

[Bombjack]

I`d be concerned that he might easily be holding AK or AQ of Diamonds

Estimated probability of this? AKs is rarer than AA, and for it to be of this specific suit, even less likely.

 

[Egon Towst]

Estimated probability of this? AKs is rarer than AA, and for it to be of this specific suit, even less likely.

Agreed, but the key phrase in my remark was "among other possibilities".

My point is really that there is a flush draw possibility, so we need to make it expensive to chase.

 

[Jack Daniels]

So, will we be seeing a turn card? Or was the hand cancelled and all cash refunded?

 

[ChuckTs]

PF: reraise %100 time unless this is a player you have thousands of hands on and are sure that you're facing AA. You've got to define your hand and your opponents, get full value from your hand and isolate vs the weak limper.

Post-flop: Good bet at around 2/3 the pot; now you can be pretty sure that you're either ahead vs AK or an underpair, or that he's hit his TT set and he's slowplaying ya. I like a lead on the turn of about the same fraction of the pot in case he's drawing with say AQd, and depending on what he does you can decide whether you're ahead or not which you most probably should be.

 

[Schatzdog]

*** TURN *** [Th 5d 4d] [4h]
Bluetones: checks danols: bets $3
Bluetones: calls $3

I know you guys will all be screaming at this play and it does look weak but let me tell you that at no point in this hand do I feel like I'm ahead.

Comments?

PS: I live in Sydney so give me a break about the timeliness of the posts.

 

[ChuckTs]

Even if your range on him is AA-QQ + AK, you're still ahead 1/2 the time and tying 1/4 the time (vs KK). Actually putting him on that tight a range would require alot of info that I'm assuming you don't have. You're giving him a very cheap river if he's still drawing with AKd or a similar hand, and I really don't like this turn check-call.

Don't you think he'd raise your flop bet with AA and a flushdraw on board?

 

[Schatzdog]

*** RIVER *** [Th 5d 4d 4h] [Qc]
Bluetones: checks danols: checks
*** SHOW DOWN *** Bluetones: shows [Kc Ks] (two pair, Kings and Fours) danols: shows [As Ah] (two pair, Aces and Fours) danols collected $16.05 from pot

Here's the rest of the hand. I just wanted to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

Like I said though this felt like Aces from the beginning.

Overall comments?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Overall comments?

Apart from "Villain is the most passive player in the universe"? Dunno.

 

[Bombjack]

Yah, your opponent is a donk.

Plus you will get better value by re-raising and getting all your money in. At a full table your opponent will have Aces less than 5% of the time.

 

[Egon Towst]

Well, it`s a damn good read you had on this. Judging from the comments, I guess all of us would have lost more chips on this one than you did.

I suppose it`s possible you might have scared villain into folding by representing a 4 at the turn, but not very likely. Seems there`s no way for you to win this.

That`s very results-oriented, though, and (although we disagree in the detail) I think we all agree that in principle you should play Cowboys more aggressively.

 

[ChuckTs]

I still like a reraise preflop; it'll narrow your opponent's range considerably (though judging by the way he played the rest of this hand, he'd cold call you and check-call down...). Good read though; hope you took notes on this guy

 

[Jack Daniels]

I'll just leave it at:
1. I'm pretty much in line with more aggresive play as others have said already.
2. LOL at the money danols left on the table by super passive play.

PS: I live in Sydney so give me a break about the timeliness of the posts.

Oh, and I was kidding.

 

[Schatzdog]

Thank guys,

I totally agree in that the PF must be a re-raise. The whole thing I have been thinking over is that if I re-raise PF and he calls or re-raises I'm gonna let those KK go. I just "knew" he had AA.

That said, the reason I wasn't too reluctant to fold is that I knew I could make good money on this table simply by waiting for even more clear cut opportunities.

Thanks for comments.