I'm so rusty... I think I butchered this one bad

[blankoblanco]

full tilt poker Game #1534928371: Table Camden Rose - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:48:32 ET - 2007/01/04
Seat 1: leverp2000 ($57.50)
Seat 2: silers ($58.50)
Seat 3: skeemann ($30.40)
Seat 4: combuboom ($97.15)
Seat 5: OLD21PLAYA ($99.70)
Seat 6: Musky12 ($62.45)
Seat 7: Count Scoopula ($227.80)
Seat 8: Feel Laak ($89.60), is sitting out
Seat 9: horsechick ($41.80)
Count Scoopula posts the small blind of $0.50
horsechick posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [As Js]
leverp2000 folds
silers folds
skeemann calls $1
combuboom raises to $4 Skeemann limps with lots of crap and then folds to raise; free dollar?
Feel Laak: well, its been fun. Until next time horse. by the way, u should mark lever as a fish, he's not very good and I recommend bluffing him everytime
OLD21PLAYA calls $4 Yay, I get to play out of position.
Musky12 calls $4 Yeah, I remember why I hate AJ now.
Count Scoopula folds
horsechick folds
skeemann folds See?
Feel Laak: give me my share next time lever, lol
*** FLOP *** [Qs 4s Ad] TPGK + nut flush draw
combuboom checks AHHH WHAT DO I DO HERE? Had a brain fart and checked. Is betting manditory or is a check okay? I feel like I should have bet because I'm not going to know where I am when someone else bets.
Feel Laak stands up
leverp2000: hehe
OLD21PLAYA bets $10 QQ or AA probably reraise PF, so I don't think he has that. AK is a concern. AQ is an even bigger concern. AT, AJ or other weak suited As are fine with me. Set of 4s is bad.
Musky12 folds
combuboom calls $10 Must-call situation? Check-raise draw? Do what what?
*** TURN *** [Qs 4s Ad] 8♣
combuboom checks Well I already let him take the lead, but maybe I missed another opportunity where I should have bet.
OLD21PLAYA bets $24
combuboom has no idea where he's at in the hand because he screwed up and...

How would you have played it, assuming you played it in the first place? I've still got TPGK and the nut flush draw... what do I do now? Help plz I suck ty

 

[stormswa]

k

id have to fold now, you have pretty much turned into a calling station and if your flush comes out you are not going to get paid off so its not worth it. At this point he has put you on the flush draw. He might not even be that strong but how you played the flop he most likley thinks you are on the draw.

you so should of re-raised this on the flop, I mean you have a nut flush draw and top pair. You have a killer hand!!!!


preflop yea this wasnt the greatest play but you know that already.


I dont think he is as strong as you think but regarless it dosent matter you are folding.


I mean if you call the turn bet and the flush dosent hit what are you gonna do when he bets? fold? or if you flush hits and you bet he folds? so I dont see a calling is that profitable in long run.


if you are gonna raise with hands like this raise more preflop. You really dont want caller with AJ because most likley they will have you beat so raise enough so that if you do get callers you can be sure your beat. With letting 2 people in flop you have no idea of the strength of your hand.

 

[zowzza]

I"ll have to give a second to what stormswas said. Very solid reasoning and without anyone other knowlege of how OLD21PLAYA is playing. I wouldn't think you'd have any other choice than to fold.

 

[blankoblanco]

$58.50 in the pot $24 to call = about 2.5:1 odds

I have like 3:1 odds to either hit my flush or hit a J and make 2 pair on the river. So pot odds say no. But what about implied odds?

If I thought I could get him to put in more than $14 on the river (eventual $72 in the pot/$24 to call = 3:1) on the instances where I make my flush or hit my J and I knew that it would be the best hand, would it be correct to say I had the implied odds to call this? Or did I calculate wrong?

Of course the problem is that I don't know it will be the best hand... Aces and Jacks are beat by AQ or a set. Also the 8 of spades could conceivably give opponent a full house on the slight chance that he has a set.

 

[stormswa]

ye

$58.50 in the pot $24 to call = about 2.5:1 odds

I have like 3:1 odds to either hit my flush or hit a J and make 2 pair on the river. So pot odds say no. But what about implied odds?

If I thought I could get him to put in more than $14 on the river (eventual $72 in the pot/$24 to call = 3:1) on the instances where I make my flush or hit my J and I knew that it would be the best hand, would it be correct to say I had the implied odds to call this? Or did I calculate wrong?

Of course the problem is that I don't know it will be the best hand... Aces and Jacks are beat by AQ or a set. Also the 8 of spades could conceivably give opponent a full house on the slight chance that he has a set.

see thats the problem here the only garanteed out you have right now is a non pairing spade. I dont see you have good enough implied odds here to make this call because I think if a spade comes you are not going to get him to put enough in the pot to make this call.

remember also that there is only 1 card to come and you have 33% to hit your hand. As for your other outs I dont know how much I would discount them but im sure you need some discount in them seeing as you might already be way behind. Of course there is also a chance that you are ahead but after his bet on turn I reall really dont think you are ahead. I could see him making the bluff on the flop but after you cold called him I think he would of checked being in position.

I think you should chalk it up as misplayed fold and move on.

 

[joosebuck]

raise the flop to find out if he has AQ or 44. limp preflop because aj is about as attractive as mischman before a cord of grey goose.

 

[blankoblanco]

But does anyone agree leading out instead of checking with the intention of checkraising is a better idea? Or is it maybe like one of those x% of the time I'll lead out and x% of the time I'll go for the c-r. Check-raise could give me more information, while leading out is potentially less expensive since I can fold to a large enough raise instead of raising and having to fold to a re-raise.

I guess part of the reason I felt weird about making a raise on the flop was because I had the nut flush draw, and if I he pushes all-in over the top or something, which seems pretty commonplace at this limit, I have to abandon it, whereas if I just call, I know I get to at least see the river.


***EDIT: And I dislike AJ as much as the next guy, but I don't get the big deal about raising here when a weak chronic limp-folder came in before me and I'm 2 off the button, + player is sitting out so it's 8-handed right now. You can't tell me you auto-fold AJs on the c/o with a BB of dead money in the pot. I'm one off the c/o... not seeing the big deal. I mean, do you guys puke your guts out when a professional raises with A-rag suited and worse in High Stakes Poker (which happens all the time). Yes, these guys are pros, but they're playing against other pros. I'm not a pro, but I'm playing against people who are on average far worse than I am. People can just get overly nazi about pre-flop stuff that's borderline and depends upon a)personal style and b)the table in the first place.

 

[Egon Towst]

I don`t see a problem with your PF raise, given that the only other player in the pot is known to be loose-passive. The error is on the flop. You really need to bet there.

As things stand now, as others have said, your only hard outs are the non-pairing Spades and you should probably fold.

Having said that, if it were me I`d probably go on tilt over my own stupidity and call. And then, win or lose, I`d take a break and not come back until I was thinking straighter.

 

[dbitel]

preflop is standard. Folding or calling are both not nearly as good as raising.

On the flop, both leading or checking are fine. Given that you checked, c/r would be terrible. Check/calling the flop is clearly best. let him keep bluffing if we're ahead or let us hit our hand for cheap if we're behind.

On the turn, we might still have the best hand and we certainly have a nice draw. Check/calling here seems very standard with the plan to check/fold the river if we miss

 

[stormswa]

huh

preflop is standard. Folding or calling are both not nearly as good as raising.

On the flop, both leading or checking are fine. Given that you checked, c/r would be terrible. Check/calling the flop is clearly best. let him keep bluffing if we're ahead or let us hit our hand for cheap if we're behind.

On the turn, we might still have the best hand and we certainly have a nice draw. Check/calling here seems very standard with the plan to check/fold the river if we miss

I hate this. Nothing personal towards you but how is this even close to profitable. You now your flush only his about 33% of the time so you are going to call/call/fold or if you hit your flush call/call/push and he folds, in long run you are losing money here.

run this hand like this 1000 times and you are going to be way down!

 

[dbitel]

I hate this. Nothing personal towards you but how is this even close to profitable. You now your flush only his about 33% of the time so you are going to call/call/fold or if you hit your flush call/call/push and he folds, in long run you are losing money here.

run this hand like this 1000 times and you are going to be way down!

lol.

We're not calling for flush odds (and even if we were, it doesnt' matter about the pot odds, its about implied odds. So if we stack him when we hit the flush, its still a +EV call). We're calling on the flop/turn because our hand is most likely ahead and because of what we perceive his 1 barrelling/2 barrelling/3 barrelling frequencies to be

 

[stormswa]

really

lol.

We're not calling for flush odds (and even if we were, it doesnt' matter about the pot odds, its about implied odds. So if we stack him when we hit the flush, its still a +EV call). We're calling on the flop/turn because our hand is most likely ahead and because of what we perceive his 1 barrelling/2 barrelling/3 barrelling frequencies to be

you really think he is going to call off his whole stack when the flush hits? He has already put you on the flush. How are you sure you are ahead without putting a single bet in the whole hand you have no clue where you stand in the hand.

You act like you are playing this sooo sneaky and you really arnt your hand isnt a made hand its a drawing hand, what makes matter worse is you are totally out of position. Your implied odds are terrible, I stand by my origional statement....fold.

 

[stormswa]

wait second

I just realized something in your 1st post you said we are going to call and fold if we dont hit our draw.


then 2nd post you say we are calling because we think we have best hand.



so which is it? you cant fold and call at same time, if you could that would be pretty cool.

with the plan to check/fold the river if we miss

We're calling on the flop/turn because our hand is most likely ahead and because of what we perceive his 1 barrelling/2 barrelling/3 barrelling frequencies to be

again im not trying to single you out im actully just trying to understand your point of view, obviously your a solid player according to you and your other post so If I could understand maybe I could learn from you. If you are playing the levels you claim to be in other thread I think we could all learn.

 

[blankoblanco]

Oh, in my last post I meant to say "I know I'll get to at least see the turn", not "the river" if I just call the flop.

Anyway, dbitel, why do you think my hand is most likely ahead? At the time, I thought there was maybe a 50/50 chance my hand was ahead, but upon clear-headed reflection, I think the chances are actually worse.

I mean, how can we put him on a bluff at all? I raised pre-flop, villain called, button called. AQ4 flop. Is he really gonna bluff into 2 players, one who made a raise and another who called it, when there's an A on the board? Doesn't make much sense. Not saying it couldn't happen, but I think it'd be really unlikely. I figure he's either got an A with a lower kicker, or he's ahead, the latter being much more probable.

 

[dbitel]

storm,

OK. I'll try helping you out 1 last time, then I'm probably giving up.

Implied odds:

chances of hitting a flush 4:1
amount to call: $24
amount in pot: $59
if calling for flush odds alone, need to make: 4*24 = $96

there is already $59 in the pot, so need to make an extra $37 when we hit the flush and teh pot will be $83 big. I think we can manage that!

So even if we are calling just for flush odds, the call is OK. Now moving on to your next points:

"he puts us on the flush draw". No he doesn't. You only think that because you know our cards. Obviously he knows we can have a flush draw, but its just 1 of many hands we can have. You really saying you don't play any other hands this way? (HINT: if you dont, thats a huge leak)


"How are you sure you are ahead without putting a single bet in the whole hand you have no clue where you stand in the hand." - I won't go into it fully now, maybe I'll write an article on it later, but "knowing where you are in a hand" isn't important in poker, at least not for 100BBs and is an extremely fishy way of thinking. All thats important is trying to gaughe your opponents rough range and bluffing frequnecies. This doesnt cost us any $$$ and actually serves us much better than betting and raising for information.

"You act like you are playing this sooo sneaky" - I'm doing nothing of teh sort, I'm playing the hand very very standardly

"your hand isnt a made hand its a drawing hand" - wrong. it is both a made hand and a drawing hand. we're certainly not behind 100% of the time here

"I just realized something in your 1st post you said we are going to call and fold if we dont hit our draw.


then 2nd post you say we are calling because we think we have best hand.



so which is it? you cant fold and call at same time, if you could that would be pretty cool."

Obviously you didnt understand what i said about his 1/2/3 barrelling frequencies...and thats cool...i didnt expect you to really understand. I'll try to give a quick explination. people bluff a lot when checked to on the flop. Lets say, that they will bluff with air 90%+ when checked to on the flop. On the turn, it will be less, as we have repped a stronger hand no. So they will maybe bluff like 50% of the time. After we call again, we're repping an EVEN stronger hand. So on teh river, he'll bluff even less...like 10% of the time. So now thats 40% of his bluffs he gives up with on the river and just checks....so all those times, even when we are not hitting the flush, we win the whole pot. So yes, I'll fold teh river if he bets, but that doesn't mean I cant call on teh turn b/c i think i have the best hand

 

[stormswa]

you know what

actully I understand any terminology you want to spew so you sound smart and like you know what you are talking about. I would fold because it is correct play on how the hand was played so far.

I was actully being sarcastic when I asked you to explain yourself because you are soooo wrong and thought it was funny how your 1st post on the forum was just bragging on what levels you play and your killer article (lol).

I was being nice about it all but since you want to act like a total A$$ go right ahead, I know you are clueless and im glad I figured it out now before I read anymore of your silly advice. Thanks was a bad day till I read your posts. But please dont stop posting need good material for my website, might even add new page for your posts.

sorry guys for drama.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

1) Raising preflop here is fine, limping is fine too. Depends on the table - the looser the players behind you are the more inclined I would be to just limp - AJs plays decently multiway and I don't fancy the idea of playig a raised pot with AJs OOP. At a table of unknown's it's close to 50/50 though. So preflop is fine.

2) Lead the flop. There is absolutely no reason not to. Trying for a check-raise is reasonable too (even if it's checked around you aren't too worried about giving a free card as you have the strongest draw out there)

3)

I guess part of the reason I felt weird about making a raise on the flop was because I had the nut flush draw, and if I he pushes all-in over the top or something, which seems pretty commonplace at this limit, I have to abandon it, whereas if I just call, I know I get to at least see the river.

You should not be afraid to take the pot down as soon as possible, as opposed to having to play the rest of the hand out of position having handed an opponent the initiative. Your hand is strong, but not strong enough to 'slowplay' like this OOP. Check-calling the flop is going to leave you with a really awkward turn decision just like the one you had to make the vast majority of the time, as to villain it probably looks like you have JJ or something and are scared of the Ace, so he will bet with a large range of hands that you are beating, but similarly can have a lot of hands you are not.

4) As played, well, as I said you've left yourself with an awkward decision. $24 to win ~$68 with one card to come, so you're getting not far off 3:1, you're just over 4:1 to hit the flush with one card left so villain doesn't have to be bluffing often for the call to be okay (and this isn't even factoring in implied odds when we hit the flush, which probably pushes it to break-even without even considering if villain may be bluffing or betting with a lesser hand). The thing is though, if you miss on the river, you're probably going to be faced with an even tougher decision.

Probably call and fold to a sizeable river bet (or check behind if he checks) if we miss is the best course of action. Obviously if we hit we can bet/shove depending on villain's action.

Edit: Actually it's a pretty clear call, rereading what I've just written. It's still not a nice spot to be in, though.

Edit II: storm, dbitel is correct. What exact part of "how the hand was played" is encouraging you to fold? It's around about a breakeven call even if villain is bluffing or betting with a lesser hand 0% of the time, which cannot be right (Harrington's 10% law etc).

 

[stormswa]

Edit II: storm, dbitel is correct. What exact part of "how the hand was played" is encouraging you to fold? It's around about a breakeven call even if villain is bluffing or betting with a lesser hand 0% of the time, which cannot be right (Harrington's 10% law etc).

because I dont see him paying you off when the flush hit's, im not saying im right just didnt appriciate dbitel tone where all I was trying to do was see his point of view. If I knew he would get it all in if my draw hit then yes a call would be correct.

I think this hand should of been played way different and the situation that hero has got himself into is a tough spot. I didnt do the actul math so if you did it and it works out as a even EV call or even +EV one I stand corrected.

as for if you are ahead or not I dont have clue because villian has done all the betting. In my origional response I even said I dont think he has much.

 

[dbitel]

dorkus,

good post, and thaks for agreeing with me.

A question for you though....Why are you leading the flop? Value? Protection? Fold equity?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Then we'll assume villain will not put any more money at all in the pot if the flush hits (I'm not gonna debate the 'correctness' of this yet, just using it to illustrate a point). We assume our flush is good if it hits (only the 8s on the river brings this into any doubt at all anyway).

We still only need villain to be bluffing or betting with a weaker hand less than 10% of the time for our call to be profitable. Sure, we will be faced with a tricky decision should we miss, but we have to assume that the majority of the time villain is bluffing or betting with a weaker hand, he will give up. Even if he does this only 50% of the time, and fires a third barrel the other 50%, I still think, without doing that actual maths, that we're around about breakeven.

I guess reads on villain are important here, but without a "LAG capable of firing 3-barrels with weak hands/air" read I'm happy to think there's a >50% chance he gives up the ghost on the river.

Back to the 'he won't pay off a flush' argument, the simple fact is he doesn't have to pay off any huge amount to make calling the turn worthwhile. There is absolutely no way he can put us solely on a flush draw. Our range of hands as I see it based on the action up to the turn is probably something like AA-99/44 (ok, it's a horrible slowplay if we have AA or QQ but people do it), AK-AT (including AsKs-AsTs of course), KQ, 2 other high spades. The flush-drawing hands represent a small portion of this range, so much so that if a spade hits on the river he is obligated to call a small bet if he has a hand like AQ which is ahead of most of the range.

Yes, he might re-evaluate and narrow our range a little when we lead the flush river, but there is still no way he can put us solely on a flush which hit. Nobody is that good.

 

[Egon Towst]

My, this is getting argumentative.

Dbitel, I don`t want to add to the bad vibes, but can you address this one more time:

you are going to call/call/fold or if you hit your flush call/call/push and he folds, in long run you are losing money here.

Maybe I`m stoopid, but that seems correct to me.

Also this:

"knowing where you are in a hand" isn't important in poker

is news to me (and to most, I bet). How soon do you expect to write that article

And finally, what are you putting the villain on in this hand ?

Edit: Wow, there`s been about 6 more posts while I`ve been typing this (I`ve got a game on at the same time). Sorry if my questions are already answered.

 

[stormswa]

like I said

Then we'll assume villain will not put any more money at all in the pot if the flush hits (I'm not gonna debate the 'correctness' of this yet, just using it to illustrate a point). We assume our flush is good if it hits (only the 8s on the river brings this into any doubt at all anyway).

We still only need villain to be bluffing or betting with a weaker hand less than 10% of the time for our call to be profitable. Sure, we will be faced with a tricky decision should we miss, but we have to assume that the majority of the time villain is bluffing or betting with a weaker hand, he will give up. Even if he does this only 50% of the time, and fires a third barrel the other 50%, I still think, without doing that actual maths, that we're around about breakeven.

I guess reads on villain are important here, but without a "LAG capable of firing 3-barrels with weak hands/air" read I'm happy to think there's a >50% chance he gives up the ghost on the river.

Back to the 'he won't pay off a flush' argument, the simple fact is he doesn't have to pay off any huge amount to make calling the turn worthwhile. There is absolutely no way he can put us solely on a flush draw. Our range of hands as I see it based on the action up to the turn is probably something like AA-99/44 (ok, it's a horrible slowplay if we have AA or QQ but people do it), AK-AT (including AsKs-AsTs of course), KQ, 2 other high spades. The flush-drawing hands represent a small portion of this range, so much so that if a spade hits on the river he is obligated to call a small bet if he has a hand like AQ which is ahead of most of the range.

Yes, he might re-evaluate and narrow our range a little when we lead the flush river, but there is still no way he can put us solely on a flush which hit. Nobody is that good.

like I said i didnt do the math I went by what hero said when he didnt have odds to call on the flush draw.

also I didnt add in the fact that we were going to call down on our ace because the new guy said we were going to check/fold the river if the flush missed (his words not mine).

im not saying I fold this hand the whole time but with the way we just called the flop I dont like just calling and then check/folding the river, I think that is weak.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

dorkus,

good post, and thaks for agreeing with me.

A question for you though....Why are you leading the flop? Value? Protection? Fold Equity?

I don't mind taking the pot down now, because we're out of position with a strong, but potentially dangerous hand. So I guess it's partly for fold equity.

I think it's likely we have the best hand at the moment, so partly for value.

I don't think our hand needs protecting - there are very few 'scare' cards or indeed just generally 'bad' cards that could fall.

I suppose the fold equity and protection points conflict a little (Edit: I guess all three points conflict with each other a little actually, heh), but there will be cases where we are behind to start with, and the importance of position cannot be understated.

I suppose we can throw 'information' into the reasons for leading too. Check-calling tells us nothing - is villain bluffing now that we've shown no strength on the flop? Is he betting with a weak ace for information? Does he have a monster and is trying to swell the pot and/or protect against draws? Is he betting with a draw? We don't know if we check-call. Of course we don't know if we lead either, but if we lead and are raised we can reduce villain's bluff% and narrow his range a little accordingly, which at least makes future decisions in the hand a little less hard work.

 

[stormswa]

preflop is standard. Folding or calling are both not nearly as good as raising.

On the flop, both leading or checking are fine. Given that you checked, c/r would be terrible. Check/calling the flop is clearly best. let him keep bluffing if we're ahead or let us hit our hand for cheap if we're behind.

On the turn, we might still have the best hand and we certainly have a nice draw. Check/calling here seems very standard with the plan to check/fold the river if we miss

I bolded the part I disagree with, this is how this mess started. I just dont see how this is profitable, you say you break even because of the times he is bluffing and stuff but if we are check folding this every time how is this profitable?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Because villain will not always bet.

Sometimes he will give up a bluff. He should also check with a weaker ace, as I don't see how a river bet with a weak Ace can be profitable.

...and sometimes we will hit and win, of course.

Yep, sure, occasionally villain will bluff with air on the river and we will 'incorrectly' fold, but in cases like that you've just got to hand it to him for having the balls to pull it off. I still think the turn check-call is okay given the flop action though.