Good move slowing down when the board paired?

[joosebuck]

pokerstars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:spade:, K:diamond:.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Button calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Button calls.
Flop: (16 SB) T:heart:, J:diamond:, 9:club: (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, UTG 3-bets, Button calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Button calls.
Turn: (15 BB) 5:diamond: (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.
River: (29 BB) J:heart: (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB calls.
Final Pot: 35 BB

 

[joosebuck]

Just joined the table, but in the few hands I was there, I noticed it was -very- loose.

 

[t1riel]

There really is no need to slow down. You have the straight and at least one player would keep calling you since this is limit hold em. One of the advantages of limit holdem is if you have a great hand you can rack up a good sized pot becuase players would call with weaker hands becuase it's just another .50 (or whatever the limit is). Still, you played it well.

 

[robwhufc]

There really is no need to slow down. You have the straight and at least one player would keep calling you since this is limit hold em.

Well, the reason for slowing down is that he no longer has the nuts - he's now behind 10 J, 9 J and 5 J, all who have got full house, and JJ who's got 4 of a kind. You normally wouldn't expect 5 J to go to the river in a decent game, and JJ would be very lucky, but 10 J and 9 j are certainly a very possible hands. Bearing in mind you've got 2 opponents at river, i'd call and not raise - you're not going to push a better hand off pot now, and the pot is sizeable enough anyway i m o.

 

[Osmann]

I would say you should should raise because it seems you have a calling station in the pot, and I don't think he is laying down his hand now. So if you are more than 40% sure you have the best hand you should raise the pot. If you were only up against the raiser I think calling would be almost as good as raising, but when you have two opponent where I'm pretty sure the callingstation doesn't have you beat, it should definately be a raise.

 

[Styrofoam]

my guess is you're against AJ or KJ here, and he just made trips with a good, or best kicker. I could be wrong - but IMO thats what it is.

 

[robwhufc]

my guess is you're against AJ or KJ here, and he just made trips with a good, or best kicker. I could be wrong - but IMO thats what it is.

There's 2 opponents though, both of whom called post river.

 

[Styrofoam]

i still doubt he's against a fullhouse. Its possible he's up against 10/J but i still doubt it

 

[shwingzilla]

Yea, you could lose to a full house, but honestly how often does that happen? It is also important to remember that with two jacks out on the board, the chances that his opponents possess even one jack is pretty slim. Eighteen total possible hands that could beat him, if we count up all possibilities, 18/1326 = 1.4%. There are two opponents, so 2.8% chance that either has him beat. Raise it, and if he re-raises then call.

It's an easy raise, and knowing that the board was loose it's an obvious raise.

 

[robwhufc]

Yea, you could lose to a full house, but honestly how often does that happen? It is also important to remember that with two jacks out on the board, the chances that his opponents possess even one jack is pretty slim. Eighteen total possible hands that could beat him, if we count up all possibilities, 18/1326 = 1.4%. There are two opponents, so 2.8% chance that either has him beat. Raise it, and if he re-raises then call.

How can you possibly include all 1,326 possible hand combinations in your argument? - from the possible hands that would have raised, re-raised and capped on a flop of J,T,9, I would say that the chance of at least 1 jack being out is not pretty slim, it is likely. And if a Jack is being played, then it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that the starting hand was J T. Surely the only hands that can still be betting and calling on the river are over pair (AA KK QQ) a straight (possible lower straight) 3 of a kind or full house. With 2 people calling and a sizeable pot, i'd forego the final 2 or 3 bets in case of the full house.

 

[shwingzilla]

How can you possibly include all 1,326 possible hand combinations in your argument? - from the possible hands that would have raised, re-raised and capped on a flop of J,T,9, I would say that the chance of at least 1 jack being out is not pretty slim, it is likely. And if a Jack is being played, then it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that the starting hand was J T. Surely the only hands that can still be betting and calling on the river are over pair (AA KK QQ) a straight (possible lower straight) 3 of a kind or full house. With 2 people calling and a sizeable pot, i'd forego the final 2 or 3 bets in case of the full house.

You ever played at a loose table? I saw a threeway pot capped on the flop and the turn, 3 bet on the river, they all turned over their cards to show two people had a pair of aces, and one had two pair. This was on a board that had multiple straight possiblities. This bet has 1:3 pot odds (they're all going to call it, no one's folding at this point). Are you telling me that over 66% of the time one of the other players has a full house?

My point was not that players would call all the way with any hand, my point was that the chance of any player having a full house is very, very slim. Preflop the chance of anyone having the cards to make a fullhouse/four of a kind is 18%, discounting the wise players who don't play J-5 and J-9. It's much harder to read people's bets in limit than in no limit, and when a set/straight/full house all bet the same, I'm gonna go with the most likely holdings, not the scariest.

 

[Styrofoam]

which most likely, like I said, is going to be AJ and probably AA-QQ and even possibly AK. UTG made a classic limp/raise ... its VERY VERY possible he's got the big overpair. In fact, i put him on AA

 

[robwhufc]

which most likely, like I said, is going to be AJ and probably AA-QQ and even possibly AK. UTG made a classic limp/raise ... its VERY VERY possible he's got the big overpair. In fact, i put him on AA

Grrrrrrrrrrr - what about the BB? - OK you've beaten UTG, but what about BB? There are 2 opponents to worry about, beating one of them aint going to win you the pot. You've got to guesstimate the range of hands that TWO people are calling / raising with, not 1. With 1 opponent, i'd raise, with 2 obviously the 4 better hands are more possible.

 

[Styrofoam]

Yeah, utg is AA and IMO BB is AJ or KJ.

 

[joosebuck]

just to let you know, my straight was good.

 

[joosebuck]

one kid had A10 and the other had 78

 

[ChuckTs]

rep + : started a nice argument

 

[joosebuck]

thx

and i was mistaken, it was 78 and AJ - not A10

 

[Styrofoam]

so i was close on my assessment. good to know.

 

[Ridin2Aces]

I Allways play caustious when the board pairs. Be happy with getting a free check and try and see a showdown for cheap. Only expeirence will let you know if your beat or not. If you bet and they go over the top then your probably up against a full house, folding a straight here is hard but its a spot were many people go broke.

 

[joosebuck]

Well I would have had the nuts until that jack hit, so I wasn't scared to cap every round.

 

[starfall]

I'd say slowing down was OK - it's possibly not the highest profit play, though, because perhaps 50% of the time you'll still have the best hand, and then the extra bets will pay off enough to be profitable. If it's a tight table, then you could have an advantage in raising, by potentially pushing off someone with an identical straight, but on a loose table like that you're not going to improve your chances of winning the hand, so it's a lot more marginal whether it's worth raising at that point.

 

[Fish]

Once again, I have read the first post, and skipped everything afterwords, so my opinion will be unbiased.

Preflop---- I don't like the cap. Calling the 3 bet is sufficient in my opinion.
You are out of position here, and K-Qo is not the hand to blast off
with here, even 5-handed.

Flop ---- Well played.

Turn --- Well Played.

River --- Yes, it is possible you are beat here, but the amount of times you
are ahead and will be called by inferior hands vastly out weighs the
times you will lose this hand. 3-bet this hand on the river and hope
it gets capped.

 

[Fish]

If you bet and they go over the top then your probably up against a full house, folding a straight here is hard but its a spot were many people go broke.

Not in "limit" poker they don't.

 

[neishe]

The reason I think it is more likely someone could have had a full house in this hand would be the the action pre flop, It wouldn't be unreasonable to think that someone may have been in the pot with pocket ten or even jacks, to give quads (unlikely I know but still a possibility). However, I don't think you can make any decent money from pot's if you are constantly frightened of the nuts, and overall I think you played it well.