On the flop I have bottom pair, gutshot draw and a flush draw.

[losrayados]

Hi there, this is my first attempt at posting a hand for analysis, please bear with me.

Ok, so its 6 max NL holdem, 5/10 cent blinds.

Seat 1: fadfast02 ($1.60 in chips)
Seat 2: Seebär ($18.60 in chips)
Seat 3: NoCredits ($5.30 in chips)
Seat 4: losrayados ($11.05 in chips)
Seat 6: POKRMANIA ($5.85 in chips)
wallace0211 will be allowed to play after the button
POKRMANIA: posts small blind $0.05
fadfast02: posts big blind $0.10



I'm on the button dealt 4♦ 5♦.

UTG (a TA player) raises to 40 cents.

I call, SB calls, BB calls.

The SB is kinda loose in a bad way, likes to bluff, but quite obvious about it.

I'm not worried about the BB, he's gonna fold everything except the absolute nuts.

My concern is the UTG guy, prob cos the 2 hands before he won a big pot playing KK very well.

so the flop comes

4♥ 7♦ 8♦

Sweet I think, flush draw, bottom pair, plus a gutshot draw. until...

the SB first to act pushes all in, $5.45. (I think why the hell would he push if he has a set, so either he has nothing, a better flush draw than me, or just a piece of the flop)

BB folds

THEN, just to make it more confusing, UTG just calls. I automatically put him on a really good pair, at least QQ.

So... I know I'm beat at the moment by UTG, but quite sure that SB doesn't really have me beat, so it would be a race against UTG.

so ... should I push the rest of my chips in? (about $11)

just call and hope for a diamond?

or fold.

any advice would be much appreciated, and apologies in advance if this hand posting is hard to read!

cheers

 

[tosborn]

Do you really want to enter a race here? You haven't commited anything besides the blind call to this pot. You have determined that you are probably beat at this point.

I get out of the way. Fold.

 

[losrayados]

But doesn't the fact that there is now a like 12 bucks in the pot make my draws worth continuing? I have 9 outs to the flush, 2 outs to the set, 3 outs to 2 pair, and 4 outs to the straight. So 18 outs twice to win a huge pot. Why not push? I'm really not worried about the SB.

 

[losrayados]

i gotta go to bed now, (1.44 am where I am) but will reply in the morning.

cheers

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

It's entirely conceivable that you're up against a better made hand and a better draw here. I think this is a pretty easy fold.

 

[Bombjack]

I think I'd gamble and shove for 40c more, seeing as you're getting 2:1, you're definitely getting the right odds. You're a favourite against UTG's overpair, but the main thing you need to worry about is that the open-shove was with a bigger flush draw like [kd][qd], which would take you down to 9 outs rather than 17. Even with only 9 outs however, you have nearly 28% equity, so you're not losing too much by calling. You'll often find donks at this level will open-shove with top pair, so this seems like a good spot to get your money in.

 

[Bombjack]

Edit: mis-read the stacks, and you have another $5 behind. I'd go ahead and shove here because you're favourite against an overpair, which isn't folding (although if he does, that's good). If the original shover had a flush draw and the flush comes, you'll still get your money back on the side pot.

 

[alan1983]

Id go all-in.

 

[dj11]

I think I fold, but that 1 out to a str8 fl looks inviting.
Lo pair is nothing to write home for money about. The flush draw might easily be beat. The str8 draw put you on the ignorant end of it. All things considered, looks to be a good fold here.

 

[joosebuck]

shove because its ****ing .05/.10 and they probably both just have overcards

 

[Lafaena]

"shove because its ****ing .05/.10 and they probably both just have overcards"
Agree. easy shove

 

[losrayados]

Thanks for the responses guys. If I were to play the exact hand again, I would definitely push.

So I guess I'll expose my self to ridicule and confess how the hand played out.

Because I'm a complete idiot, I just CALL.

turn comes [Jc]

UTG bets $5.40 to put me all in, I shrug and call whilst looking for a sharp object to stab myself in the eye with.

river is [10h]

UTG flips KK

SB flips over [10s] [7s] for 2 pair and scoops main pot $17.10

UTG gets the side pot $9.90

I look for a rope for not pushing.

But same situation happened again I would definitely push.

For those who play at higher stakes, would you push? say at .50/1? If the reads were the same that is, assuming the SB is pretty irrelevant.

 

[Bombjack]

I doubt he'd be laying down his Kings so it doesn't really make much difference whether you call and get it in on the turn, or get it in on the flop. You have to call on the turn, getting over 4:1 with 17 outs. You were probably something like a 60-40 favourite on the flop but it went the wrong way. You can't do much more than get your money in as a favourite.

However this is what the pros call a "variance play". Expect to win in the long run but also expect big swings. So if you're not playing comfortably within your bankroll you could pass this kind of hand. You're losing out on some equity but it's generally not that big, since you're only a slight favourite to win. If you had been the one pushing the flop in a situation where you had fold equity (which you don't here), that's where you make the real money.

 

[losrayados]

Yeah I probably would have folded if it was going to threaten my bankroll.

One question: In this situation for me to have fold equity, does that mean I have a smaller stack than the SB and UTG, or they have much smaller stacks than me, so if they call and win I don't lose too much money?

I never really got what fold equity means. (sry for the noob question)

 

[tosborn]

Here is an explanation of Fold Equity. F Paulson was nice enough to help me out with it.

 

[Bombjack]

Yeah I probably would have folded if it was going to threaten my bankroll.

One question: In this situation for me to have fold equity, does that mean I have a smaller stack than the SB and UTG, or they have much smaller stacks than me, so if they call and win I don't lose too much money?

I never really got what fold equity means. (sry for the noob question)

You'd both have to have a significant amount of money behind, compared to the size of the pot. The overbet has made the pot so big that the amount of money you have behind is only a small proportion of the pot, so the KK is unlikely to fold because it's only $5 to win $20 or thereabouts.

However if the SB had just made a pot-sized bet and the guy with KK had raised, and you'd come over the top, he can see it's going to cost him a lot more to go to showdown compared to the pot he's playing for, so is more likely to give the pot up, despite having 40% equity. If either you or he is short-stacked, he knows he can see a showdown cheaply.