Busted flush or genuine straight?

[Bombjack]

What d'ya reckon... his overbet is very fishy....

My flop bet is probably a bit too small given the draws out there.

Villain is quite loose: 40% VP$IP, 7% PFR. PokerTracker rates him as Loose-aggressive / passive.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 Big Blind (10 handed)

Hero ($19.35)
UTG+2 ($16.95)
MP1 ($27.15)
MP2 ($23.30)
MP3 ($18.00)
CO ($9.05)
Button ($11.85)
SB ($22.25)
BB ($25.45)
UTG ($13.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A

, J

.
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, MP2 calls $1, 4 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.15) 8

, 9

, J

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, MP2 calls $2, BB folds.

Turn: ($7.15) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP2 calls $2.

River: ($11.15) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $18.30 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $29.45

 

[spore]

I dunno, on that one.. i probably would've bet more on the turn.. around $5. doubt you'd get a cold-call there, probably a reraise or a fold. Quite honstly i expect the guy had the straight.. just my opinion.

 

[Schatzdog]

I agree with Spore, I think your turn bet is too small, should've been maybe 2/3rds the pot or bigger. That would give you a better idea where you are in the hand. I'm lost as to what he has.

 

[twizzybop]

He doesn't have the straight but however I would put him on 2 pair, he wants to take it down but really doesn't know if you have a straight, a set, or what. The overbet screams I have a hand but not to stong of a hand, you can beat me but you need something stronger then 2 pair.

 

[spore]

Why not the straight.. he could easily have something like TJ, T9, T8.. for a pair + open-ended straight draw. cold-called on the turn trying to induce a bet on the river.. The only reason I don't think 2-pair on this is the only hand i could see here w/ 2-pair is JQ. But we've got a loose player and no raise at any point so, probably not. And for the same reason, it doesn't seem like he flopped 2-pair.. so what's left is J6, 96, 86. Possible.. but not likely.

 

[twizzybop]

Because most of the time the overbet is exactly that, overbet to induce a call with less of a hand that what the board is showing. If he cold calling instead of trying to get more money on the flop for when the straight does hit.

Besides his profile distinquishes this perfectly.. Loose-aggresive/passive

He would be the aggresor if he was on a straight draw and put more money in the pot to build it up just in case he does hit. Passive cause he knows he doesn't have the best hand here, would be afraid to lose with it so the aggresive pushes the all-in overbet.

Bomb is beat here anyway, unless of course this may be a full fledge bluff. Unlikely but not impossible.

 

[Schatzdog]

I think it's pretty clear that A J is beaten here and that those cards are going in the muck. I was thinking two pair myself but why not the straight? What difference does it make?

 

[twizzybop]

Because as well he doesn't have the straight.. why such an overbet.. the correct thing would be to bet and get more money out of bomb, not scare him away with such an overbet. Ahhh I missed this.. yes he could have the straight but the dummy straight... The high end straight wouldn't need to overbet so much cause it would be correct to milk Bombjack for more money if he does have the high end straight.

 

[spore]

Cause we gotsta know! if he had bombjack had 2pair here instead of top pair.. it would be vital to distinguish between 2pair an the straight

 

[Dingodaddy23]

yeah.... AJ is definately smoked here

 

[Bombjack]

If he were on a flush draw that missed he might just be buying the pot... Of course he might have something like trips as well. I guess we'll never know... I'll look out for him though and ask what he had if I see him.

Seems the consensus is it was a good fold.