Big Decision with AA

[Stick66]

So far, this whole Limit table has been donkalicious. Chasers from hell and only a few catches. I catch AA on the button. I raise and it gets capped. "Excellent!" However, the flop is bad with Club flush and Queen set possibilities. I just call since the odds are so tasty. On the turn, the plot thickens. With the lead bet and a raise in front of me, I'm thinking one of them is laying the lumber with their made flush or has a set of 9's or Q's and wants to make a stand. Right now, my pot odds are 6.5-1 ($2 into a $13 pot). My pot odds will improve on the river (that's Limit for ya), but most of my implied odds are gone with a bad board and major action with more coming behind me.

Do I continue and take a chance that these donks are fighting over top pair? Or are there too many red flags, even at a donk table?

FullTiltPoker Game #1012209404: Table Bradley - $0.50/$1 - Limit Hold'em - 23:39:02 ET - 2006/09/17
Seat 1: Mooftaz ($0), is sitting out
Seat 2: quizout ($37.60)
Seat 3: DeathTech ($13.60)
Seat 4: Johnsonch ($27)
Seat 5: a_day_go ($11.90)
Seat 6: SJohnston328 ($74.80)
Seat 7: Flemming ($6.75)
Seat 8: brooks_86 ($23.50)
Seat 9: MrSticker ($30.10)
quizout posts the small blind of $0.25
DeathTech posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker [As Ad]
Johnsonch folds
a_day_go folds
SJohnston328 calls $0.50
Flemming calls $0.50
brooks_86 folds
MrSticker raises to $1
quizout raises to $1.50
DeathTech folds
SJohnston328 calls $1
Flemming calls $1
MrSticker raises to $2
quizout calls $0.50
SJohnston328 calls $0.50
Flemming calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [3c Qc 7c]
quizout checks
SJohnston328 bets $0.50
Flemming calls $0.50
MrSticker calls $0.50
quizout calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [3c Qc 7c] [9h]
quizout checks
SJohnston328 bets $1
Flemming raises to $2
MrSticker ...

 

[Bombjack]

Shouldn't you have raised on the flop?

I doubt you're up against QQ because the only other person to raise pre-flop just called the flop (OK he could be slow-playing, but unlikely given the flush possibilities). I haven't a clue with Limit, but it looks like Flemming is representing a hand stronger than top pair. He'd be a bit silly to bluff here given the pot odds for people to call, and the fact there are 3 other people in the pot. Of course he could be on a draw. But I think you have to fold here.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Well, I'm going to side with Bombjack on this one. Raising the flop was key here, IMO, as it would have brought you more information while still on the small bets.

But your question is what to do now. Again, with Bombjack, you've gotta dump it now. There is already a bet and raise in front of you from pre-flop and flop aggressors. If the flush isn't there already, there are odds for them to keep calling now.

 

[Stick66]

Interesting that you guys would raise the dangerous flop here. A very No-Limit approach to a Limit hand. I'm not disagreeing, but let me explain my reasoning as to why I didn't. I'll ellicit the help of Mr. Sklansky (I forget from which book, SSHE or HEPFAP):

He says, in affect, there should be a certain purpose to raising and that there needs to be a belief that it will succeed. The most common ones are:

To scare away draws. In my experience, throwing in another 50 cents on the flop wouldn't scare away the 2 donks that have already called. It would just sweeten the pot.

To bring in more money with a very strong hand. The strength of my Aces on the flop is very much in question here.

To gain information. That would be nice. But for another 50 cents on the flop, many donkeys would stay with bottom pair. Or could it be a slow-played nut flush? Or just a flush draw? In LHE, the extra bet won't extract info that is precise enough.

As a bluff. We all know bluffing is tougher in LHE and it complicates things more to be at such low stakes when an extra 50 cents doesn't mean much. Now at a $20/$40 table would be a different story.

Sure, every situation has it's unique set of problems. But at the time, I fell back on the above teachings and felt a flop raise would be futile.

Welp, I'll need a few more responses before I'll reveal the results and I think they'll be unexpected to most. Thanks to the folks who responded so far. Maybe I should start naming my threads "Your Celebrity Dream Date" or "Fantasy Football" or something.

 

[gord962]

I would suspect with your read on the table, one player has top pair, the other has a flush draw. I would call down the bet and see where the river takes you. You still are quite likely to have the best hand here, so don't throw it away, but proceed with caution.

 

[scifell]

Based on my experience of limit tables with very poor players:


I think you need to call. You might be beat, but I think there is a strong possibility that SJohnston has a pair (anything from bottom pair to top pair on the flop, or even a pocket pair that missed the flop) or a flush draw, and Flemming could easily have little more than a pair of 9's here, or a flush draw (or both). But I think you need to strongly consider folding if SJohnston rereaises (and especially if Flemming raises again after that).

 

[Stick66]

(Almost 2 days and only 4 responses. Jeez, I'm getting a complex here. Maybe I should start naming these "Wild Naked Titties" or "XXX Videos" or "Joke of the Day" or something. Anything not poker-related seems to really fly around here.)

For those who give a rip, here's the results. I folded and my read was right. 2 had top pair and 1 had a nut flush draw. One turned 2 pair and the winner rivered a better 2 pair. I only saved $2, but I guess I can be proud of my reads. AA really DOES lose strength in a multi-way pot.

Thanks to those few who responded.

*** TURN *** [3c Qc 7c] [9h]
quizout checks
SJohnston328 bets $1
Flemming raises to $2
MrSticker has 15 seconds left to act
MrSticker folds
quizout calls $2
SJohnston328 calls $1
*** RIVER *** [3c Qc 7c 9h] [Kd]
quizout checks
SJohnston328 checks
Flemming checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Flemming shows [Qh 9s] (two pair, Queens and Nines)
quizout mucks
SJohnston328 shows [Ks Qd] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
SJohnston328 wins the pot ($16) with two pair, Kings and Queens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16.50 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3c Qc 7c 9h Kd]
Seat 1: Mooftaz (button) is sitting out
Seat 2: quizout (small blind) mucked [Js Ac] - Ace King high
Seat 3: DeathTech (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Johnsonch didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: a_day_go didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: SJohnston328 showed [Ks Qd] and won ($16) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 7: Flemming showed [Qh 9s] and lost with two pair, Queens and Nines
Seat 8: brooks_86 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: MrSticker folded on the Turn

 

[Jack Daniels]

(Almost 2 days and only 4 responses. Jeez, I'm getting a complex here. Maybe I should start naming these "Wild Naked Titties" or "XXX Videos" or "Joke of the Day" or something.

Almost definitely. Hell, I'd have replied six or seven time just myself.

For those who give a rip, here's the results. I folded and my read was right. 2 had top pair and 1 had a nut flush draw. One turned 2 pair and the winner rivered a better 2 pair. I only saved $2, but I guess I can be proud of my reads. AA really DOES lose strength in a multi-way pot.

Nice read on the table. Congrats. I still think raising the flop may have helped, but this being limit and the general donks abound, maybe not.

Thanks to those few who responded.

You're most welcome.

 

[Bombjack]

Nice fold. But it would still have been correct to raise on the flop for value as Sklansky would say, as you were favourite to win the hand (meaning you were above 25% to win with 4 people in). This doesn't mean you can't then lay the hand down if you feel other people have improved.

 

[scifell]

I don't think they would have have played it any differently if they had held at one pair instead of catching a second... and given the two pair is less likely (and no club fell on the turn), I still think you should have called.