99 vs weird action on TTTx board; 25NL

[ChuckTs]

Another interesting one; what's our move?

Wemukka, by my PT stats, is 25/8.5/0.75 (or loose-passive-ish). Rex is kind of limpey, and semi-passive at this point. For those who don't know him, he's a tough, solid player.

pokerstars GAME #9356420941: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/04/10 - 19:04:56 (ET)
Table 'Althaea V' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: wemukka ($12.10 in chips)
Seat 2: thechippy67 ($35.45 in chips)
Seat 3: Irexes ($28.45 in chips)
Seat 5: ChuckTs ($21.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Thomxxx ($14 in chips)
Seat 8: sangiovesex ($13.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Spader3000 ($38.10 in chips)
thechippy67: posts small blind $0.10
Irexes: posts big blind $0.25
Vigilanty: sits out
gavat: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [9c] [9d]
ChuckTs: calls $0.25
Thomxxx: folds
sangiovesex: folds
Spader3000: calls $0.25
wemukka: raises $0.25 to $0.50
thechippy67: folds
Irexes: calls $0.25
ChuckTs: calls $0.25
Spader3000: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [10s] [10h] [3h]
Irexes: checks
ChuckTs: bets $1
Spader3000: folds
wemukka: calls $1
Irexes: calls $1
*** TURN *** [10s] [10h] [3h] [10d]
Irexes: checks
ChuckTs: bets $3
wemukka: raises $3 to $6
Irexes: calls $6
ChuckTs: ...

 

[Irexes]

Wow. Considering how rarely I play ring you'd think I'd remember

Given the action I've put myself on a hand.

I'm not going to comment further, very interested to see the results.

 

[NineLions]

Hmmm, I'd put Irexes on an underpair. If that's the case, you have him beat.

Min raise from wemukka seems odd for the last T, so maybe a pair as well, but maybe JJ from a habitual min raiser. I'd stick around and call.

 

[skoldpadda]

Think you have the best of it. Bet half the pot.

 

[alan1983]

I fold this everytime with 2 still in it.

If one guy is minraising without the ten, theres no way another is calling the minraises without it. Specially someone as good as irexes.

 

[tenbob]

ROFL. A $3 bet, a min-raise usually an indication of extreme strength and Rex smooth calls with the initial raiser left to act. This fold should be standard especially considering your knowledge of Rex.

 

[Tammy]

ROFL. A $3 bet, a min-raise usually an indication of extreme strength and Rex smooth calls with the initial raiser left to act. This fold should be standard especially considering your knowledge of Rex.

Yes. Something stinks to high heaven here. I'd let this one go and see what these two are up to, before I get in way over my head.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Rex quite simply has to have a T here. Even if our cards magically morphed into AA I'm folding.

Pair >99, he reraises preflop and isolates against captain minraisealot.

33, he folds turn.

Anything else he folds somewhere down the line too (low pairs will fold turn, overcards will either fold flop or turn etc). So, by process of elimination he has to have something like JT sooooted here. It's a little risky slowplaying the flop against two players with a flush draw out there, but not unreasonable (or heck, he could even have flopped a boat with T3 - given the minraise he can actually call with anything preflop if he likes).

The other guy could quite forseeably be a donk with a premium pair, however.

Anyway, it's a fold. Even if by some freak of chance Rex doesn't have a T and has misclicked somewhere or something, the other guy will have you beat a lot of the time too.

 

[dj11]

I'm calling this bet. Up till this raise there was no indication of a serious hand that will beat your 99 here, I'm thinking 3x maybe even 33 but that would have got a turn bet. Likely AX. I'm calling here....

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You seriously think Rex has Ax here?

If I were him, I'd be offended.

 

[Irexes]

You seriously think Rex has Ax here?

If I were him, I'd be offended.

I'm not offended. Anything reinforcing a dodgy image is a good thing

(I've also found the HH in PT so know the answer )

 

[dj11]

I'm thinking Irexes has either a '3', or a Ax, yes. That said I don't remember playing Irexes and so have no tells. What I see is a not so unfavorable table situation where a lose would indeed hurt, but not totally cripple me. Irexes is probably not the problem here, the raiser is most likely to be the problem.

As Chuck states this player is loose passive(ish), it might be a good time for a semi bluff if the LAP player thinks the bet was a hi card bet. But I put him in a little looser range than Irexes mainly cause Chuck mentions Irexes as kinda limpey. Seems any 3 would bet bigger than a min raise except a limpy player, thus Irexes has a 3. ANd any 10 would bet bigger than a minraise, after all if they will call a minraise, why not a standard raise?

Seeing as Chuck can close out the action here, I still think it is a good call.

Let me remind you so as your insults can go unheeded, I am playing poorly lately..........

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Okay, let's put ourselves in Rex's shoes.

If we have 3x, how confident are we that we are ahead on the turn, given the action in front of us? In light of this, what's the best move?

Bear in mind that Rex is (allegedly ) a good, solid player.

 

[ChuckTs]

Dealt to ChuckTs 9♣ 9♦
ChuckTs: calls $0.25
Thomxxx: folds
sangiovesex: folds
Spader3000: calls $0.25
wemukka: raises $0.25 to $0.50
thechippy67: folds
Irexes: calls $0.25 Could have anything given his pot odds, but a big pair would reraise
ChuckTs: calls $0.25
Spader3000: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** 10♠ 10♥ 3♥
Irexes: checks
ChuckTs: bets $1
Spader3000: folds
wemukka: calls $1
Irexes: calls $1 Ch-c is either a flush draw, ten or 33. Rex simply isn't weak enough to do this with a smaller pair than mine; he'd most probably lead to see where he's at. This ch-c sends off alarm bells, but I decide to lead the turn again to see where I'm at.
*** TURN *** 10♠ 10♥ 3♥ 10♦
Irexes: checks
ChuckTs: bets $3
wemukka: raises $3 to $6
Irexes: calls $6 He can't have a flush draw anymore since it's now dead to any pair which has now filled up, can't have 33 since it's now counterfeit, and again he can't have a bigger FH than me because with JJ+ he would have reraised PF.
ChuckTs said, "too odd"
ChuckTs: folds
*** RIVER *** 10♠ 10♥ 3♥ 10♦ [4c]
Irexes: bets $5
wemukka: calls $4.60 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Irexes: shows [10c] [Qh] (four of a kind, Tens)
wemukka: mucks hand
ChuckTs said, ":/"
Irexes collected $27.90 from pot
Irexes said, "very odd"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $29.30 | Rake $1.40
Board [Ts Th 3h Td 4c]
Seat 1: wemukka (button) mucked [9s] [9h]
Seat 2: thechippy67 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Irexes (big blind) showed [10c] [Qh] and won ($27.90) with four of a kind, Tens
Seat 5: ChuckTs folded on the Turn
Seat 6: Thomxxx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: sangiovesex folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Spader3000 folded on the Flop

On a side note, how would you play the hand in Irexes' shoes? I think he played it pretty well, and there was really no way of disguising his hand any further once that turn hit.

 

[dj11]

Thus, I am playing poorly lately...........

 

[ChuckTs]

:/

I don't think you analyzed it badly, you just didn't give rex the credit he deserves...he's just too strong to have anything else, really.

 

[skoldpadda]

Nice -- knowing the player sure helped here.

 

[NineLions]

Great hand to post, Chuck. Thanks for the analysis.

 

[Irexes]

I honestly didin't remember this when it was first posted (I'm sure somewhere it was in my head but it didn't strike a chord).

I've got to say my initial analysis as posted was exactly (uncannily so) the same as Chucks. I bet/check the flop about 50/50 here, though with Chuck being an active player and Mr minraise in the hand a check is slightly more likely. I'll also take the risk of the flush draw a certain % of the time, slowing right down if it comes.

I'm delighted the turn isn't a heart and quads are never bad but really the third ten kills my action a bit. The only thing I'm getting action off is an overpair or a plain bad play and the former is unlikely and the latter isn't coming from Chuck.

Given that "other guy" has <$5 in his stack I figure I'm getting it on the river despite my play screaming "I HAVE A TEN!!!!!!"


Frankly I'm just glad when I looked it up I'd got the quads, anything else would have been interesting to explain away

 

[dj11]

While sitting here thinking that for sure I should be learning something here, I am still wondering just what it is I should be learning.

Assume for the moment that Chuck is the only known entity here, and at best he has his instant PT stats to help him out, but no history with Rex to fall back on. Only stats for the player in that seat, which show limpishness.

In that case Chris, is it still a fold? Chuck? Rex?

And the oddity of both Chuck and the other guy having 99 is really weird.

Looks something like 50% (+/- 5%) of the time a TTT99 boat will be the winning hand, with any small pair hanging to these bets which will lose, and the winners being the overpair, and the last T.

Assuming I am not too far off with that 50% figure, this still looks like getting over 3-1 on a 2-1 hand. Pot odds say call to me.

So should I learn that folding when the pot odds say don't fold is a good thing, or should I learn that playing small tables with friends you can read is a good thing? Or just what should I be learning here...???

 

[NineLions]

So in my efforts to try to get to the level that you guys play at:


If Rex had a smaller pocket pair like I put him on, most times he would lead the flop to see where he is, then what do you do w/99 Chuck? Put him on an underpair and since yours is the best underpair, raise?

 

[ChuckTs]

While sitting here thinking that for sure I should be learning something here, I am still wondering just what it is I should be learning.

Assume for the moment that Chuck is the only known entity here, and at best he has his instant PT stats to help him out, but no history with Rex to fall back on. Only stats for the player in that seat, which show limpishness.

In that case Chris, is it still a fold? Chuck? Rex?

Could be...if we had no history with rex and knew nothing about him aside from his limpeyness, I would be more inclined to call and reevaluate the river, but the key thing here is that Rex isn't donkish enough to try to hold onto a small pair here. He would know he was beat and toss it by the turn, which is why I smelled something funny with his turn ch-c for $6 and folded.

And the oddity of both Chuck and the other guy having 99 is really weird.

Looks something like 50% (+/- 5%) of the time a TTT99 boat will be the winning hand, with any small pair hanging to these bets which will lose, and the winners being the overpair, and the last T.

Assuming I am not too far off with that 50% figure, this still looks like getting over 3-1 on a 2-1 hand. Pot odds say call to me.

So should I learn that folding when the pot odds say don't fold is a good thing, or should I learn that playing small tables with friends you can read is a good thing? Or just what should I be learning here...???

i've got a really bad hangover and tbh you're confusing me with your odds there

Put plainly, rex rarely, if ever, has a hand that we beat here, and we have to fold. As for the other villain, I think it's about 50/50 with him having a smaller or bigger pair here. Had rex not been in the hand, I would have called him and check-called the river thinking that he'd have 88 or under most of the time, JJ+ another big chunk of the time, and the ten occasionally.

 

[ChuckTs]

So in my efforts to try to get to the level that you guys play at:


If Rex had a smaller pocket pair like I put him on, most times he would lead the flop to see where he is, then what do you do w/99 Chuck? Put him on an underpair and since yours is the best underpair, raise?

Had he led the flop, I'd be a little more in the dark. He could be semibluffing with the flush draw, leading with a small pair, leading with a ten or 33, or even bluffing. With a player behind me, I'd probably call and see what happens.

Raising isn't bad either, but most of the time it'll just push out the small pairs (a raise from me with that line would basically say I've got a medium pair or lucked out with the ten), aswell as just give money to him if he's holding a monster.

 

[Irexes]

If Rex had a smaller pocket pair like I put him on, most times he would lead the flop to see where he is, then what do you do w/99 Chuck? Put him on an underpair and since yours is the best underpair, raise?

To be honest I lead here a lot regardless what I have. It's my passivity followed by a call on the flop that should set the alarm bells ringing, they go into overdrive on the turn.

If I have an underpair 77-99 I bet 80%+ of the time on this flop and check fold the rest to any pressure <66 it drops to about 50/50. And there's no way I'm check-calling an underpair like that on the turn and I wouldn't expect anyone I had pegged as decent to act in the way I did with anything other than a ten.

It's a case I think where Chuck had enough information to make a really solid laydown by piecing together all the information. He didn't need to call to prove he was right

 

[Irexes]

Got to agree with Chuck that if I'd bet the flop it would have been a darn sight harder to put me on the right hand and I might have been able to keep him in on the turn.