$50 NL HE 6-max: Bluff catcher failed. Can we get V to fold this river with 88?

[gustav197poker]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.25/$.50

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/425dNB7Cs

UTG: $53.92 (108 bb)
CO: $70.84 (142 bb)
BU: $69.57 (139 bb)
SB: $60.33 (121 bb)
BB (Hero): $61.75 (124 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A♥ K♣
2 players fold, BTN raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $5.50, BTN calls $4

Flop: ($11.25) 3♠ 3♦ J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.42, BTN calls $3.42

Turn: ($18.09) 6♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8.60, Hero calls $8.60

River: ($35.29) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Total pot: $35.29 (Rake: $1.76)

Showdown:
BU shows 8♠ 8♦ (two pair, Eights and Threes)
(equity - Pre-Flop: 55%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) shows A♥ K♣ (a pair of Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 45%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

BU wins $33.53

 

[LemonadeJooe]

We have initiative in the hand by 3-betting
which we keep by betting on the flop which is dry and paired.
Almost always we get called by overcards and almost any pocket pair that called our 3-bet.

Shutting down on the turn with a blank card is fine with the intention to fold to a bet.
Call is not however.
with only 12% equity and 25% pot odds calling is -EV.

But we called and going to the river,
now scary card comes.
Knowing our opp. bet less than 50% of the pot on the turn,he bet for thin value and is not 100% committed to his hand.
Since we floated, depending on our fold equity,
we can try to pure bluff 75% of the pot and try to represent top pair.
Since our 3-bet pre-flop, our perceived range is certainly there.

In conclusion:
We did 2 mistakes in the hand
-making -EV call on the turn
- by not trying to fix our mistake by bluffing top pair on the river.

 

[Aballinamion]

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/425dNB7Cs

UTG: $53.92 (108 bb)
CO: $70.84 (142 bb)
BU: $69.57 (139 bb)
SB: $60.33 (121 bb)
BB (Hero): $61.75 (124 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A♥ K♣
2 players fold, BTN raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $5.50, BTN calls $4

Flop: ($11.25) 3♠ 3♦ J♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.42, BTN calls $3.42

Turn: ($18.09) 6♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8.60, Hero calls $8.60

River: ($35.29) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Total pot: $35.29 (Rake: $1.76)

Showdown:
BU shows 8♠ 8♦ (two pair, Eights and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 55%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) shows A♥ K♣ (a pair of Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 45%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

BU wins $33.53

This hand is the opposite of that one you called a 3-way pot holding AK. Here we could be calling but you made a polarized 3-bet.
OTF we have initiative and we own good equity for bluffing (two overcards plus runner-runner).
This turn isn’t one of the cards that would allow us to continue bluffing. Here we are check-folding.
We would continue betting or floating if we got a ten, a queen, a king or an ace OTT.
We are calling OTT for what reason now that our equity dropped down a lot?

 

[Station_Master]

This is a very interesting hand and the sort of spot we often end up in after 3betting AK. Personally I hate these spots and tend to play them badly in game.

The key here is the flop decision. Should we auto cbet for a small size? I tend to do the same, but I think it's a bad play, because we will get called so often and then have a difficult time on the turn and river. No pair is folding on such a dry flop and many unpaired Broadway's will float too, so you probably only fold out stuff like 76s, 87s with no flush draw.

What is your strategy with AA here or KK? I think our overpairs want to bet big to build a pot on such a dry texture, so I think we want to 'polarise' on the flop, betting 60% or so with strong overpairs and Jx plus some decent bluffs (flush draws, QTdd etc). Within our checking range we include some weaker Jx e.g. JT, plus some slow played AA and JJ.
AK is a good hand to check, you can easily call a small flop bet by villain and potentially then bluff river if turn checks through. It will be ahead of lots of villains range and the problem with betting it is no worse hands fold.

As played I think you have to check turn and then probably fold, the call is ok as you do beat bluffs but the problem is bluffs might barrel anyway and you only have 4 clean outs (which might not even be clean if villain has AJ, KJ, 66 etc). If the villain will just stab and give up then the call becomes ok, but otherwise fold is the better play.

 

[Aballinamion]

Since we floated, depending on our fold equity,
we can try to pure bluff 75% of the pot and try to represent top pair.
Since our 3-bet pre-flop, our perceived range is certainly there.

by not trying to fix our mistake by bluffing top pair on the river.

Respectfully I think that if we are bluffing these blanks OTT and OTR, we are overbluffing and getting too much unbalanced. The reason is, if we are bluffing in this spot trying to represent X, Y or Z having just poor equity and no idea about villain’s fold equity, we are basically always bluffing AK postflop no matter what board or villain.
If I’m wrong, I would like to know the basis/logic of trying to represent whatever here OTR. Also I would like to know which value hands that we had 3-bet preflop and have played like this postflop. Also which bluffs. Missed AKo is one we already know but I would like to know more possible bluffs. And I’m not being ironic or trying to push you into inflammatory discussion, I’m just not seeing the logic behind it.

Thanks for your attention and sorry in advance if I somehow overreacted.

Cheers;

 

[Station_Master]

I just ran this through GTO Wizard and actually my thoughts on checking flop seem off. The solver prefers betting though generally using the bigger 50% pot or so size (mixed in with smaller bets and checks).

Interestingly as played facing the turn bet the solver mixes call and jam with this specific combo. I'm not sure many people are finding that jam! But it does make sense unlocking both flush draws.

 

[Aballinamion]

I just ran this through GTO Wizard and actually my thoughts on checking flop seem off. The solver prefers betting though generally using the bigger 50% pot or so size (mixed in with smaller bets and checks).

Interestingly as played facing the turn bet the solver mixes call and jam with this specific combo. I'm not sure many people are finding that jam! But it does make sense unlocking both flush draws.

Really interesting point of GTO solver. But against what type of villain, does the solver has this variable?
Plus a solver is too much idealistic, he makes moves it was programmed to do perfectly. So perfectly that it sometimes it might sound out of way.
Humans become very exploitable when we face a spot like this (total missed AK) and raise turn having air.
This is why we try to mix GTO with Exploitative Game, because one nullifies the other.
And I’m quite sure humans play far better than machines. Because we can do things we weren’t programmed to do, this is the beauty of being a living one.
Even so, thanks for your input, I never considered that and I never use any solver to my analysis, believe me or not is a 100% my memory.
The only thing I use from time to time is the odds calculator.

 

[gustav197poker]

All types of contributions are welcome for my questions. Feel free to say what you think, or if you wish to provide information from diverse sources, It will be equally valued.
I appreciate your honesty and that is specifically what I am looking for.