€400 NL HE Full Ring: ??? :x

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$4

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

In this hand, I'm UTG+1 with a ~900 stack, SB has a >1000, and UTG+2 a ~400 stack (everything in €).

SB is a player I don't know, but seems solid. Context: I just doubled up against him a few hands ago going all-in preflop with Aces. There was a Queen on the board, but he didn't show for complain equity, nor did he complain verbally; he just mucked. So I assume it was KK and I'm pegging him as very discplined.

UTG+2 is literally insane; a bit earlier he went allin with Q8o on a board of KQT.

I'm dealt . Usually this would be a borderline hand, but not in this case because UTG+2 will probably call and I want to play pots with him. Someone is going to stack him again and I want to be the one.

So I open 12 and -- surprise! -- UTG+2 calls. It folds to the SB, who also calls; the BB folds.

The board comes (Pot=40). SB checks, I bet 24, both players call.

Turn comes (Pot=117). The SB checks. I now have a premium hand, and UTG+2 is never going to fold a flush draw. Or an Ace for that matter. He probably wouldn't even fold a gutshot. So I just throw in a 100 chip; if UTG+2 shoves, I'm 100% calling.

Instead, UTG+2 folds and the SB raises to 500.

Is the SB trying to get back at me? Is he betting on me being risk-averse? Is he hoping I get greedy? I don't know, but I only have two pair and not even top two pair. So I fold. But like, I don't know. Was he better there 60% of the time?

Whether or not the answer is yes, the truth is that I am risk averse in this spot, and Villain hasn't made a move like this all day. If I get stacked here that'd stick with me for a long time, so realistically, I was never going to call this without at least a set, and even then idk. But I'm still interested in what you'd do here if you had no risk aversion.

 

[kdmeteor]

Note: I immediately got dealt more playable hands after so I had trouble writing this down and because of that, I'm not sure about the ; it might have been a lower card, in which case T9 wouldn't have gotten there. (The double flush draw is accurate, though.) I know I would have still folded if it was instead, but maybe it makes the difference in GTO world.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Dont think AJ is that marginal, but it is the worst offsuit AX, I would open from EP.

Flop
Not much to say here. As you say, time to get some value from the whale to your left. If BB check-raise, thats not great, but you will just need to make some decisions.

Turn
Jh is not quite as great a card, as it looks at first glance. Sure you improve to two pair. But if someone had you beat on the flop, they would likely have raised. Or in case of AK 3-bet preflop. So you mainly moved further ahead of hands, you were beating already, and the board got a lot wetter. If it was 8d on the flop, then KT and T9 got there, another flushdraw turned up, and hands like AT or A9 now has a gutshot. Still I think, its fine to bet for value.

Now of course come the interesting spot, since BB check-raise, and he go so large, its esentially a non all-in all-in. Meaning you cant really call here and fold later, and you also cant expect him to bluff the river. So if you continue, the play is to jam rather than call. If it was 8d, he could have turned a straight, but would he overcall on the flop with just a naked gutshot? If not its only KT/T9 of diamonds and maybe of hearts, that got there, so 2-4 combos.

Then there are the sets and better two pair, but how many of those can he realistically have? AA and QQ would almost always 3-bet preflop, and 88 is an obvious flop check-raise unblocking everything, that can continue. The most logical hand would be AQ, which is 6 combos. And then there are his bluffs, the most likely of which would be some sort of combodraw with hearts or diamonds. You unblock those, and for that reason I could see getting it in here, but I dont think, folding is terrible either. Its close and a lot depends on, what you think about this opponent and perhaps even live reads or feels.

 

[kdmeteor]

Yeah, it's true that the isn't that great of a card. Though ironically I think it's a little better against UTG+2 because they're going to have every conceivable 2 pair combo in their range, and aren't as weighed toward high cards.

I really had no reads or even feels on the SB; he was just sitting there with headphones, not talking the entire day.

With a lot of people, it wouldn't matter how many combinations there are; they're just not going to do this unless they have it. With this one, still assuming he's pretty good, yeah I could totally see him putting it in with or something. If he did, I think kudos to him for making a strong move. Of course in those cases he still has reasonable equity. I really just don't know how this guy plays other than that has reasonable preflop ranges and doesn't limp first in.

 

[fundiver199]

yeah I could totally see him putting it in with or something.

That hand would be the nuts with a redraw, but he could have or and decide to turn it into a bluff.

Of course in those cases he still has reasonable equity.

Exactly and that is why, I dont think, its a real mistake to fold here, as long as you are sure, he is not doing this with a worse hand thinking, its for value. And in general if we are looking to get action from a VIP but instead end up getting heavy action from a reg with a bigger stack, its not a bad default to get out of the way, unless we literally have the nuts.

 

[Station_Master]

I think this is a fine exploitative fold