€400 NL HE Full Ring: Maximizing Profit from an onstensibly lucky run-out

kdmeteor

kdmeteor

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Mar 29, 2024
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Hold'em
Game Format
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$2/$4
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Full (8-10 seats)
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This was another hand played in a casino. I don't recall having ever seen baldblackguy before but he seemed weak; yellowcollarguy is a player who's there occasionally and imo he's just very straight-forward, more or less just turns his hand face-up. I'm very happy playing against either of them; I don't think they're going to make my life difficult.

Casino, Hold'em No Limit - §2/§4 (where § = €) - 9 players

x (UTG): §20 (5 bb)
xx (UTG+1): §20 (5 bb)
xxx (MP): §20 (5 bb)
xxxx (MP+1): §20 (5 bb)
yellowcollarguy (LP): §600 (150 bb)
xxxxx (CO): §20 (5 bb)
xxxxxx (BU): §20 (5 bb)
baldblackguy (SB): §550 (138 bb)
me (BB): §700 (175 bb)


Pre-Flop:
(§6) Hero (me) is BB with T Q
4 players fold, yellowcollarguy (LP) raises to §14, 2 players fold, baldblackguy (SB) calls §12, me (BB) calls §10

Flop:
(§42) 3 2 4 (3 players)
baldblackguy (SB) checks, me (BB) bets §34, yellowcollarguy (LP) calls §34, baldblackguy (SB) calls §34

Turn: (§144) K (3 players)
baldblackguy (SB) checks, me (BB) checks, yellowcollarguy (LP) checks

River: (§144) 8 (3 players)
baldblackguy (SB) checks,
me (BB) bets §104, yellowcollarguy (LP) calls §104, baldblackguy (SB) calls §104; I win the pot and baldblackguy shows the J for almost certainly the J-high flush

Preflop: this is a hand that ~everyone calls with, but I actually wouldn't hate a fold at all. I think people defend way too much against large RFI sizes and contrary to popular belief, you will not be struck by lightning if you fold a hand like QTs. The open here isn't that big, so I did make the call, but I genuinely think it's close. Note that baldblackguy checked the flop in the dark.

On the Flop I decided to lead; I have a strong draw and the flop is arguably best for my range, so even in GTO world this should be okay (not that I really care). On the Turn I decided to check; I don't think I'm very likely to get folds here. Two calls against a big Flop bet mean someone likes their hand, especially the second caller. And people love chasing flushes. I think if you did bet here, it should be very big, like 1.3x pot; that sort of bet might have merit. Betting smaller I don't like (but feel free to disagree).

On the River I make my hand, and I think against these types of players, checking is out of the question. So you have to bet, and I think the interesting question is, how big do you want to make it? 50% Pot? 70% Pot? 100% Pot? Maybe 150% pot? (If I do get raised here, I just fold without even feeling bad about it; like I said, I think these are two weak players, and a River raise is the nuts flush almost every time.)
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Definitely not folding this, but you could mix in a 3-bet from time to time.

Flop
When semi-bluffing with a draw I always like to ask, if I can get better hands to fold, and here its unlikely, that A high will fold, since any AX flopped a wheeldraw. So when you lead, you are mainly targeting K high hands, which makes me lean a little more towards checking, but I dont think, leading is terrible.

Turn
I would also not continue to barrel on this card, when they both called your flop bet. One of them might have it, and you dont want to get raised now.

River
They have both shown a lot of weekness, so I think, you need to size down a bit to increase your chance of getting at least one player to make some sort of hero call. As I understand it, the absolute bet size tend to matter in live poker, and here I would say, that §100 might be a psycological amount, which you definitely want to stay below. I also would not want to make it look like an obvious super market sale, so I would not bet §99 but maybe something like §80-90.
 
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