€400 NL HE Full Ring: Big River decision on the last hand of the night

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$4

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

This is a hand played in a casino. We're told that it's the last hand and I get dealt in the LJ. I have about 500 chips (125BB), Villain has more. I raise 12 (3BB). Villain in the BB 3bets to 64.

This 3bet means absolutely nothing. SB just raised the straddle on the previous hand with nothing. It's the last hand of the night; he's goofing off. This could literally be T7o. In general, Villain is a losing recreational player doing the usual recreational-player-y things. (And of course, I have AK so I could 4bet even a normal range.)

I 4bet 154. BB calls.

Flop comes (Pot=310). Villain checks.

This is close to the worst possible Flop I could have gotten. Villain will probably call the 4bet too wide, but he won't call with everything. This flop nails is range. I was going to cbet almost everything, but now there's no point. A J won't fold, a 9 won't fold, and he probably doesn't have many 4s. Other Aces or broadways without the J I'm already beating. A bet would be literally targeting only pocket pairs, and there are far more combinations of Jx and 9x. So I check behind.

Turn comes (Pot=310). Villain checks.

Gross card. I still don't see much of a reason to bet. After two checks I might even be better here. I check. (This one I think is more debatable, still not sure.)

River comes (Pot=310). Villain bets 230.

In this situation it is important to remember that live players don't bluff, do not look them up, live players don't bluff, do not look them up, live players don't bluff, do not look them up, live players don't arghh but his line makes no sense! Villain might 3bet everything, but even he won't call a 4bet with total garbage, so he should have almost no 2s. I'd have heard from a J by now. A 9 would not bet, it would just try to get to a cheap showdown. A pocket pair also wouldn't bet for the same reason. Even if he were value betting a medium pair, he wouldn't go so big. Even if he has hit the 2, he wouldn't bet it for the same reason! he'd just hope that I have AK and his pair of 2s is good!

The hands where this bet makes sense are stuff like A5, A3, KT, or even total air like 67s. I think he could trap a monster on the Flop, but he wouldn't check twice.

Also I need to be right here less than 1/3 of the time. So I decide to make the call. What do you think?

Spoiler

Villain had pocket 2s

 

[Station_Master]

I don't like the 4bet size, why put in 31% of your stack? Either go smaller, or even better, just shove your stack in. AK really likes a shove when there is alot of money in the pot.

As played its probably a 0 ev call on the river given he should have at least some bluffs. Would.rather face 50% pot though, seems a value heavy sizing.

 

[IPlayToWin]

I don't like your 4bet, even if you show to Villain strong range preflop, then it's no sense to check-check the flop,turn your line it's wrong.

Why you doing choice a better size of 4bet if your decision was to do that.

 

[pentazepam]

 

[pirateglenn]

I think you answered your own question with your accurate assessment of this player goofing off - i see this a lot in live play especially with bigger stacks who treat any pair (even the mighty ducks 22) like a royal flush and will play this down to the bone (river) - in your Villains case - his checking and your checking back enables this play and outcome, im definitely raising if i am playing all the way and testing his resolve - im guessing however - he sounds like the kind of player who as you have stated will play on regardless.
AK is a hand where i feel you have to commit to if you play post flop and that for me - means betting or if the villains range is such that a gross flop as the one you both received - sometimes its worth getting out of dodge (if he bets out) or keeping it cheap as your hand allowed with all the checking.

 

[eetenor]

This is a hand played in a casino. We're told that it's the last hand and I get dealt in the LJ. I have about 500 chips (125BB), Villain has more. I raise 12 (3BB). Villain in the BB 3bets to 64.

This 3bet means absolutely nothing. SB just raised the straddle on the previous hand with nothing. It's the last hand of the night; he's goofing off. This could literally be T7o. In general, Villain is a losing recreational player doing the usual recreational-player-y things. (And of course, I have AK so I could 4bet even a normal range.)

I 4bet 154. BB calls.

Flop comes (Pot=310). Villain checks.

This is close to the worst possible Flop I could have gotten. Villain will probably call the 4bet too wide, but he won't call with everything. This flop nails is range. I was going to cbet almost everything, but now there's no point. A J won't fold, a 9 won't fold, and he probably doesn't have many 4s. Other Aces or broadways without the J I'm already beating. A bet would be literally targeting only pocket pairs, and there are far more combinations of Jx and 9x. So I check behind.

Turn comes (Pot=310). Villain checks.

Gross card. I still don't see much of a reason to bet. After two checks I might even be better here. I check. (This one I think is more debatable, still not sure.)

River comes (Pot=310). Villain bets 230.

In this situation it is important to remember that live players don't bluff, do not look them up, live players don't bluff, do not look them up, live players don't bluff, do not look them up, live players don't arghh but his line makes no sense! Villain might 3bet everything, but even he won't call a 4bet with total garbage, so he should have almost no 2s. I'd have heard from a J by now. A 9 would not bet, it would just try to get to a cheap showdown. A pocket pair also wouldn't bet for the same reason. Even if he were value betting a medium pair, he wouldn't go so big. Even if he has hit the 2, he wouldn't bet it for the same reason! he'd just hope that I have AK and his pair of 2s is good!

The hands where this bet makes sense are stuff like A5, A3, KT, or even total air like 67s. I think he could trap a monster on the Flop, but he wouldn't check twice.

Also I need to be right here less than 1/3 of the time. So I decide to make the call. What do you think?

Spoiler

Villain had pocket 2s

The hand the V revealed fits correctly into your read of rec doing rec things. Your river analysis of the player went away from rec doing rec things---we want to trust our data and not adjust it on the river by saying -why would a value hand.........----rec doing rec things. That is your study point. Thinking players will outthink themselves at times and start to give rec's thoughts they do not have like-- I can bluff now- or --This bet is too big to get value I should choose a more balanced size---etc etc

Strat wise-I like a flop bet vs a rec to clarify their range on the last hand of the night folding AK to a check raise from a rec in a 4 bet pot is a no brainer- folding to any bet on river after we check turn as well- so bet small 10-30% pot depending entirely on the rec's trigger factor for XR bluffs.

Trigger factor refers to the size of the bet that makes a rec think ---hey I can bluff here they are weak-

 

[Jean-Guy]

Interesting and fine considerations. What strikes me is Villains 3-Bet. Too big. I’d shove.