€400 NL HE Full Ring: Big River Decision

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$4

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

This was a big hand I've played yesterday. I didn't know either villain (p1 or p2) before the day, and for p1 this was literally the first hand they've played on the table.

Casino, Hold'em No Limit - §2/§4 (where § = €) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

xx (UTG): §20 (5 bb)
xxx (UTG+1): §20 (5 bb)
xxxx (MP): §2,000 (500 bb)
xxxxx (MP+1): §20 (5 bb)
me (LP): §900 (225 bb)
xxxxxx (CO): §20 (5 bb)
xxxxxxx (BU): §20 (5 bb)
p1 (SB): §1,100 (275 bb)
p2 (BB): §500 (125 bb)

Pre-Flop: (§6) Hero (me) is LP with 4♠ 4♥
4 players fold, me (LP) raises to §14, 2 players fold, p1 (SB) calls §12, p2 (BB) calls §10

Flop: (§42) K♣ 4♦ 8♥ (3 players)
p1 (SB) checks, p2 (BB) bets §30, me (LP) calls §30, p1 (SB) calls §30

Turn: (§132) T♦ (3 players)
p1 (SB) checks, p2 (BB) checks, me (LP) bets §60, p1 (SB) raises to §180, p2 (BB) folds, me (LP) calls §120

River: (§492) A♥ (2 players)
p1 (SB) bets §500

On the Flop, well someone donked into me, the board is dry and I have position, so I just call.

On the Turn, p2 no longer leads, so I lead instead. I get raised; I'm in position and the board is still pretty dry, so I call rather than re-raising.

On the River... well, the hands that beat me are 88, TT, KK, AA, and QJ. I think AA and KK 3bet preflop, so I'm mostly discounting them. 88 and TT are possible. QJ seemed not super likely because of the call on the Flop. So can I put my opponent on 88 and TT enough to justify a fold, given that they'd have to beat me 2/3 of the time? I thought about it a bit, but decided that no, I can't. The person could just be value betting a strong two pair. AK would make perfect sense. AT would also make sense. But also like, K8, or even 84; I don't know this player, and people could be doing all sorts of weird things. It didn't seem all that close to me, so I only thought for a few minutes and then made the call. What do you think? Is this call justified, or do you fold the bottom set?

Spoiler

Villain had Q♦J♦ for the nuts

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open.

Flop
Its a very dry flop, so I can get on board with just calling to allow him to continue handing himself, and also allow SB to overcall.

Turn
I would definitely bet when checked to, but I might go close to 100 rather than just 60 into a pot of 132. Now SB raise, which is a little surpricing. You could go for a 3-bet here, since I think, he have more two pair than better sets, and he could also have picked up a draw. You are pretty deep though, so its also ok so just call and see, what happen.

River
TT should not overcall the flop and QJ should definitely not overcall especially not for such a relatively large sizing. So while his bet is very large and a bit scary, I cant see, how you can ever fold here. If he has it, then good for him.

Spoiler
If QJ even call the flop, which it should not, then QJ of diamonds exactly is the only combo, which is likely to raise the turn. So its still one of those ok whatever good for him kind of situations, especially if he is an unknown.

 

[puzzlefish]

I probably wouldn't feel much like folding in this spot either, but lately I have been finding that when villains play confidently like this all of a sudden, then their range somehow collapses to exactly the one hand that has me dominated. I have never ever seen two pairs over-valued like this on a river and if you ever do, then stay at that table for as long as possible.

 

[CollYan]

There are two draws on the turn and you're being picked up, it's time to drop...

 

[kdmeteor]

I probably wouldn't feel much like folding in this spot either, but lately I have been finding that when villains play confidently like this all of a sudden, then their range somehow collapses to exactly the one hand that has me dominated.

Yeah I'm always worried about making decisions because they're "the right thing to do", rather than based on what real opponents actually do. I think that's a pretty major failure mode for a lot of poker players. And I also haven't seen a lot of people bet 2 pair in this spot.

But then again, I also haven't seen a lot of people make this bet with the nuts, either. It's much more common to see a bet for 200 there, rather than 500. So either way this is unusual. Idk, hard to be completely results-unoriented here.

 

[kdmeteor]

There are two draws on the turn and you're being picked up, it's time to drop...

Fold on the Turn?

 

[fundiver199]

Idk, hard to be completely results-unoriented here.

Sure but being a little results oriented here, there is also a case for 3-bet jamming the turn. At that point you only lose to better sets, and KK likely dont just call pre. And at the same time there are a ton of draws, that developed, so its far more likely, he is raising a draw rather than a better set. And why not force those draws to either fold or call it of with incorrect odds? As it is, the hand is a bit of a bad beat story, because on the flop he needed a runner-runner to run you down, and you kind of allowed that to happen by slowplaying.

 

[kdmeteor]

Yeah, thought more about this and I completely agree now; jamming the Turn was the play.