€400 NL HE Full Ring: Big bluff or big value bet on River

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$4

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

This was a hand played in a casino. The villain is a regular. He's not good; he overplays his hands all the time. I still wouldn't be shocked if he's a winning player though just because he's aggressive and most people are passive; maybe that's all it takes. This hand is reconstructed from memory, details are probably off.

Villain is UTG+1; Hero is in the CO. Hero has a little bit over a 400€ stack; villain has slightly more. Hero has .

Villain opens to 20€ (5BB). I think Villain is opening too many hands, and I specifically had a read that he was opening larger with weaker hands, so I 3-bet to 60€. Everyone else folds and villain calls.

Flop comes (Pot = 126€). Villain checks. I think my hand is not especially vulnerable and I want to keep Villain in the pot, so I bet low-ish with 40€ despite the texture. I'd have bet more against other opponents. Villain calls.

Turn comes (Pot = 206€) and Villain checks. I don't think my opponent has many 9s; I still think I likely have the best hand, so I keep barrelling. I bet 80€. Villain calls.

River comes (Pot=366€) and Villain, after thinking for a while, bets 230€, just slightly less than my remaining stack.

So the question is, what now? I decided to make the fold. I think betting the turn was already arguably contingent on my read of Villain, but now it gets genuinely hard to see which hands he could have that I still beat. Flush is very much in his range, but also he could have just had TJ or AK. And even though I think Villain is loose, I haven't seen him run crazy bluffs all that often; it's more thinking his hands are better than they really are.

Villain showed the which of course doesn't answer the question. He also said that he put me on Aces, which doesn't answer the question, either. Was this a good fold?

There's also a case for checking the Turn; maybe I made too much of my read.

 

[finaltable1]

Such type of characters who overplays his hands, shows just 1 card and "puts you on Aces", is a well known element of the periodic table...
I think it was a good fold, you can expect big bluffs on the showdown from such type of players, also as you mentioned before about him - weaker hands = larger openings, but he is regular, not in position and he called 3bet pre flop- this is important.. So tupical scenario for him is a hand like KQ-KJ or more likely KTos, with big bluff at the end if the hand was played slowly...
BUT
It was 3bet opening, he called 15bb pre and his post flop line was: check-check-bet, so it's highly likely that it was a value bet at the end. SO KK-AK or any suited King hand like maybe KdJd.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
3-bet is fine

Flop
Small C-bet is fine.

Turn
Here I think, its to thin to bet again. Its not only 9X, that got there, but also AK, and he can absolutly have that. You only started the hand with 100BB and 3-bet to 15BB. This mean, stack sizes were very awkward for him to 4-bet, since he would either need to go so small, you never fold, or commit himself to the pot. And for that reason AK would likely just call your 3-bet and go from there. He can also have some 9X with 99 being the most logical one, and 88, TT-QQ are sets.

So you can absolutly be behind here, and your hand is not strong enough to stack off for value. You can still get called by some worse hands, but most of them have equity from a draw like KQ, KJs, KTs or diamonds. You also dont want to get check-raised and blown off your equity, so I would check back and then make a decision on the river. This keeps his range wider and the pot smaller, which makes it easier and more profitable to bluff catch on the river, as will come into play in this hand.

River
As played its ok to fold to this donk bet. You have a hand, which should not have bet turn for value, so you are low in your range, and you dont block him having a flush. Also for him to be bluffing here, he would need to turn hands like KJo or KTo with K of diamonds into a bluff, and offsuit broadways are not a call to a 3-bet, when he is out of position. Solvers often fold even AQo, so KJo or KTo is definitely not close, and KQo likely feel, it has enough showdown value to check. So if we assume, he is reasonable, then its far more likely, he had KX of diamonds and made a flush on the river rather than just the naked K of diamonds.

Of course you did not know, he had K of diamonds, until he showed it to you. But hands like AJ or AT with A of diamonds likely folded to your turn bet, and they should also have folded to your 3-bet. So once again if he is reasonable, there are not many hands, that he get to the river with this way, which you still beat, and which would need to bluff. Which is the whole problem with betting this turn card, because it condenses his range to much.

 

[kdmeteor]

Thanks; I think I agree that betting the Turn was a mistake. Always really appreciate your replies!

 

[AdamasDate]

pre flop fine but be careful

Flop
betting small does nothing because it don't fold out enough your hand is strong for the moment but it's not bullet proof I think a big bet is better

Turn
I believe betting here is way to thin and because u bet small on the flop u can get werid floats that complete now so definitely check here

River
Diamonds now complete also so your hand is gona in a bluff catcher spot funny enough I don't believe worst queen's will bet on a board like this so I find a fold here