€400 NL HE Full Ring: €400 NL HE Full Ring: Debating a difficult Fold

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$4

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

As always a hand played in a casino. Villain (the player I've dubbed B) is the same player from this hand (the BN) who has been a pro for a long time but imo has gotten worse with time.

Local Casino, Hold'em No Limit - §2/§4 (where § = €) - 9 players

xxx (UTG): §20 (5 bb)
p1 (UTG+1): §230 (58 bb)
xxxx (MP): §20 (5 bb)
xxxxx (MP+1): §20 (5 bb)
xxxxxx (LP): §20 (5 bb)
B (CO): §1,800 (450 bb)
me (BU): §500 (125 bb)
x (SB): §20 (5 bb)
xx (BB): §20 (5 bb)

Pre-Flop: (§6) Hero (me) is BTN with 9♥ 7♥
1 fold, p1 (UTG+1) calls §4, 3 players fold, B (CO) raises to §22, me (BU) calls §22, 3 players fold

Flop: (§54) 7♣ 8♦ 9♠ (2 players)
B (CO) bets §40, me (BU) raises to §120, B (CO) calls §80

Turn: (§294) J♦ (2 players)
B (CO) checks, me (BU) checks

River: (§294) 4♥ (2 players)
B (CO) bets §130

What now? Villain actually was talking during this hand, saying that he misplayed the hand and that once I call, I will agree with him that he did, and I think he said that he should have bet the Turn. This convinced me to fold my 2pair, but it's possible that a better player would have found this fold anyway just based on strategy? The River is a total blank, so this bet here looks extremely suspicious. If Villain just had a pair, you'd think they'd try getting to a cheap showdown. With the Turn being the most dangerous card possible, would you even bet your sets here?

I paid Villain 6 bucks for the hand, and

Spoiler

it was T♠6♠ for the flopped straight. When I was like, "wtf is this hand" they made me pay another 2€ to tell me that playing this type of hand once every 20 times or whatever makes them harder to read. Which I don't think is good strategy, but like I said, I think the player has gotten worse with time; this is the kind of thing he does now.

Anyway, feel free to criticize any other street as well. Maybe this isn't even a good preflop call but a hand that rather 3bets or folds. Raise-sizing on the Flop is also not obvious. I do think you should raise though since the hand is so vulnerable. I think I like checking the Turn, but not sure.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Its a really big raise, so not sure I would do a lot of cold calling here? Its difficult for me to say, since I am not a live player, and in online poker almost nobody raise this big. Of course you do have position and a decent hand, so maybe its ok.

Flop
There are already flopped straights avaliable, and even if he dont have those, the board will run out with 4 cards to a straight a very non-zero percentage of the time. And for that reason I think, its to thin to raise two pair? What if he comes over the top with a 3-bet? Is the plan then to womit-fold? For me this is just a clear call and see, what happen.

Turn
One of the many cards, that would put a 1-liner, and probably also the worst of them all, since TX is a draw to the good end and will be far more present is his range than a 6 or 5. Definitely a check behind.

River
Why does his river bet look suspicious? He is basically saying, he has a T, and why can he not have a T? Also what are his bluffs, when the main draw got there? Is he turning a hand like QJ (top pair) into a bluff? Or does he call a raise on the flop with a hand like A6? Unless there was some special dynimics, I think, its completely fine fold here.

Spoiler
T6s is a little surpricing, but he can also have T8s, T9s, JT, QT, KT or AT, and all those hands makes complete sense. So still a good fold on the river but a bad raise on the flop.

 

[kdmeteor]

Why does his river bet look suspicious? He is basically saying, he has a T, and why can he not have a T? Also what are his bluffs, when the main draw got there? Is he turning a hand like QJ (top pair) into a bluff? Or does he call a raise on the flop with a hand like A6? Unless there was some special dynimics, I think, its completely fine fold here.

Suspicious was a poor choice of words; all I meant was that it narrows his range since most hands wouldn't want to bet.

Good comment all around; I think I have a leak in not adjusting hand strength on wet boards enough, though I'm trying to work on it. After flopping two pair, I was still like "STRONG HAND, YAY" rather than "two pair + super connected board = marginal hand" which might be the more appropriate reaction. There was a similar problem with the Turn card on this hand.

If I do call here, Villain almost certainly would have bet the Turn again, and maaaaaybe you could even fold right then? If not then at worst I'd lose a similar amount. I'd definitely fold to a triple barrel.

 

[puzzlefish]

I don't think it's a difficult fold. Very wet board, straights got there, but even then you are losing to sets and even higher two pairs. When he bets big on the flop and calls your raise, what else is he doing that with except for made hands that are stronger than yours and draws that definitely complete on the turn? Would overpairs and overcards come along with your raise? I have the feeling that they probably would not.

 

[fundiver199]

Suspicious was a poor choice of words; all I meant was that it narrows his range since most hands wouldn't want to bet.

Only a T or better (QT) wants to bet the river for value. But that is still a ton of hands. AT is 16 combos, KT is 16 combos, QT is 16 combos, JT is 12 combos, TT is 6 combos, so even discounting the suited connectors, that contain a T, we already have 66 value combos, he can have. You are getting aorund 3:1, so to make a profitable call he need to have at least 66/3 = 22 bluff combos.

And what are those bluff combos? Is he calling a big flop raise with an overpair and then turning it into a bluff on the river to get you off two pair and sets? Or calling with hands like QJ or KJ for just a gutshot with overs and then turning top pair into a bluff on the river? Probably not. So if you break down his range logically, its easier to find a ton of value combos, than it is to find the nessesary bluff combos.

 

[gustav197poker]

I don't agree with playing preflop. When the bigger stacked guy threatens like that he won't do it with a hand worse than yours. I think if you're not going to play aggressive, it's not good to stay in the hand. Especially if UTG likes to limp. Which I feel like he does.
As played it smells like a set so I guess we still have fold equity.

 

[Station_Master]

Just fold pre, also it's too thin to raise flop.