$25 NL HE Full Ring: Finding a Hero Fold

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.10/$.25

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

$

I play very exploitatively, and since one of the biggest mistakes that the field makes is to raise too little, one of the biggest exploits is to overfold to aggression. This is something I've changed a lot in the last month; I think I lost a lot of money before making calls (that are probably mostly GTO-approved) vs. people who almost never bluff.

And I actually think this tendency holds to similar extents in my live casino and on 9max 10ct/25ct GGPoker cash games (and I'd imagine it applies just about everywhere until you move high enough to meet good players, but those are just the cases where I have direct experience)

Here's a pretty extreme example of how I play nowadays. No doubt a criminal fold in GTO-world given that the opponent could have a lot of draws, but I nonetheless suspect that a call loses money because the field just underbluffs so much, especially if they just called on the Flop. I expect a set here almost every time. Or do you think I've taken the concept too far with this fold?

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 ($0.10 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

940e98f3 (UTG): $53.81 (215 bb)
Hero (MP): $56.28 (225 bb)
91c25a9e (MP+1): $60.55 (242 bb)
c490e47c (CO): $20.00 (80 bb)
29fde913 (BU): $49.33 (197 bb)
7bc293e8 (SB): $50.54 (202 bb)
8a190a6c (BB): $61.58 (246 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($1.05) Hero (Hero) is MP with Q♠ Q♦
940e98f3 (UTG) raises to $0.63, Hero (MP) 3-bets to $1.89, 5 players fold, 940e98f3 (UTG) calls $1.26

Flop: ($4.83) 4♣ 3♣ 8♥ (2 players)
940e98f3 (UTG) checks, Hero (MP) bets $2.80, 940e98f3 (UTG) calls $2.80

Turn: ($10.43) 7♥ (2 players)
940e98f3 (UTG) checks, Hero (MP) bets $6, 940e98f3 (UTG) raises to $17.40, Hero (MP) folds

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Because of the big ante in this game, and because the opponent went very small, I would go more than 3X with my 3-bets. You are laying him a price, where he only has to put in $1.26 to win a pot of $4.83, so he basically only need to realise a little more than 25% equity. I dont think, this sizing get enough folds, and you are also 200BB deep, where you want to cut down on his implied odds to call with hands like small pocket pairs or suited connectors. In a standard no-ante 100BB online game your sizing would be fine.

Flop
Not much to say here. Lots of worse hands can call this bet.

Turn
As you say, bet-folding is pretty exploitable. And since I dont play this game, I dont know the player tendencies. Like how often people check-raise a draw on the turn out of position in a 3-bet pot. This idea of massively overfolding to turn and river raises is nothing new though. In "Crushing the microstakes", which was written more than a decade ago, one of the mantras are "a raise on the turn is usually the nuts, a raise on the river is always the nuts". And maybe that is still the case even at 25NL. There is also the in between option though of calling now and then look to fold most rivers. Sometimes he might give up, and then you can check back and win at showdown.

 

[puzzlefish]

I can't say it's a great hero fold. That could easily be an AK of hearts that has pretty good equity and is trying to build the pot. The way both are played, they look like either that or a set. However I feel that since the villain is UTG, it's more likely that they would be opening this way with Ax hands like AKs.

 

[kdmeteor]

Preflop
Because of the big ante in this game, and because the opponent went very small, I would go more than 3X with my 3-bets. You are laying him a price, where he only has to put in $1.26 to win a pot of $4.83, so he basically only need to realise a little more than 25% equity. I dont think, this sizing get enough folds, and you are also 200BB deep, where you want to cut down on his implied odds to call with hands like small pocket pairs or suited connectors. In a standard no-ante 100BB online game your sizing would be fine.

I think we've had this discussion before -- I'm very comfortable varying my bet sizing depending on what I want to achieve, including my 3bet sizing. I think if you go larger with QQ, you're getting your opponent to fold exactly the parts of their range that you crush, so I don't like it. If I have 5d4d there, I bet larger.

In "Crushing the microstakes", which was written more than a decade ago, one of the mantras are "a raise on the turn is usually the nuts, a raise on the river is always the nuts". And maybe that is still the case even at 25NL.

I haven't read this book, but yeah, this seems exactly right. ImE every street is under-raised, but it's the least true for the Flop and the most for the River

Note that this is 25NL 9max on GGPoker specifically, which is probably softer than 25NL on other sites.

 

[fundiver199]

I think if you go larger with QQ, you're getting your opponent to fold exactly the parts of their range that you crush, so I don't like it.

Are they really folding pocket pairs, just because you go a bit larger, when you are 200BB deep, and their origianal raise was very small? I dont think so, and certainly not the better pocket pairs like 88-JJ. Which are the ones, you are most interested in getting called by, because they will sometimes put in money postflop without hitting a set. I think, its more likely, that 88-JJ still continue, but that hands like ATo or KJo might fold. Which I think is fine, since they have at least 30% equity against your QQ.

Note that this is 25NL 9max on GGPoker specifically, which is probably softer than 25NL on other sites.

That sounds likely, since many regs probably avoid a format, they dont know well, like this big ante. In fact should I decide to give cash games another go, this game is something, I would definitely want to check out.

 

[beazer76]

I'm reminded of reading baluga theorum that's says roughly "if I'm raised on the turn or the river my one pair is almost always behind", ( this theorum has been posted from time to time in these hand reviews section of the forum ).

 

[Aballinamion]

I play very exploitatively, and since one of the biggest mistakes that the field makes is to raise too little, one of the biggest exploits is to overfold to aggression. This is something I've changed a lot in the last month; I think I lost a lot of money before making calls (that are probably mostly GTO-approved) vs. people who almost never bluff.

And I actually think this tendency holds to similar extents in my live casino and on 9max 10ct/25ct GGPoker cash games (and I'd imagine it applies just about everywhere until you move high enough to meet good players, but those are just the cases where I have direct experience)

Here's a pretty extreme example of how I play nowadays. No doubt a criminal fold in GTO-world given that the opponent could have a lot of draws, but I nonetheless suspect that a call loses money because the field just underbluffs so much, especially if they just called on the Flop. I expect a set here almost every time. Or do you think I've taken the concept too far with this fold?

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 ($0.10 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

940e98f3 (UTG): $53.81 (215 bb)
Hero (MP): $56.28 (225 bb)
91c25a9e (MP+1): $60.55 (242 bb)
c490e47c (CO): $20.00 (80 bb)
29fde913 (BU): $49.33 (197 bb)
7bc293e8 (SB): $50.54 (202 bb)
8a190a6c (BB): $61.58 (246 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($1.05) Hero (Hero) is MP with Q♠ Q♦
940e98f3 (UTG) raises to $0.63, Hero (MP) 3-bets to $1.89, 5 players fold, 940e98f3 (UTG) calls $1.26

Flop: ($4.83) 4♣ 3♣ 8♥ (2 players)
940e98f3 (UTG) checks, Hero (MP) bets $2.80, 940e98f3 (UTG) calls $2.80

Turn: ($10.43) 7♥ (2 players)
940e98f3 (UTG) checks, Hero (MP) bets $6, 940e98f3 (UTG) raises to $17.40, Hero (MP) folds

We are over folding in this spot. If we had some ace or king on the board but with so many bluffs possible we should continue. This is only a 3-bet pot, of course that villain could have some sets but he doesn't hold AA and KK most of times for this hands tend to 4-bet.
The question here is that if we know the opponent to be under bluffing, then our move is correct of we consider if villain has more values than bluffs on the same spot. I assume there is much more bluffs than values, thus we continue. Other hands like JJ and TT could also play the same way villain has played (considering villain is weak).