$25 NL HE Full Ring: Bluffing a missed draw

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.10/$.25

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

$

I tend not to try to get people off of good pairs very often, but this is a hand where I decided to go for it. Do you think this line is good?

One thing about the River situation is that, while there's only really one combination for the straight that got there, I think a lot of people apply a more vibe-based analysis. Like, 'oh it's another low card'. So I think most people will treat this card as scarier than it really is. And have a bunch of made hands in my range here, too. I think I would have bet big on any 6,2,4,7 and any club, and probably have given up on other cards.

I went for the overbet because imE people fold to overbets just a bit more often than pot bets. If I had gotten the club, I'd have bet pot. Obviously this is ultra exploitable but I don't think anyone is paying enough attention. I play very exploitable in general.

(Edit: and I decided not to 3bet preflop because c8f4ed4's PFR stat was quite low.)

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 ($0.10 ante) - 9 players

ba0d65b (UTG): $58.54 (234 bb)
3321b062 (UTG+1): $60.99 (244 bb)
7d45f4bf (MP): $51.57 (206 bb)
c8f4ed4 (MP+1): $50.52 (202 bb)
3617f009 (LP): $55.60 (222 bb)
b3d468b4 (CO): $39.64 (159 bb)
84d3082b (BU): $33.19 (133 bb)
f362f5af (SB): $27.76 (111 bb)
Hero (BB): $52.70 (211 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($1.25) Hero (Hero) is BB with K♣ Q♣
3 players fold, c8f4ed4 (MP+1) raises to $0.63, 2 players fold, 84d3082b (BU) calls $0.63, f362f5af (SB) calls $0.53, Hero (BB) calls $0.38

Flop: ($3.42) 5♣ 9♠ 5♥ (4 players)
f362f5af (SB) checks, Hero (BB) checks, c8f4ed4 (MP+1) bets $1.90, 2 players fold, Hero (BB) calls $1.90

Turn: ($7.22) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero (BB) checks, c8f4ed4 (MP+1) bets $2.39, Hero (BB) raises to $8, c8f4ed4 (MP+1) calls $5.61

River: ($23.22) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero (BB) bets $30 (Villain action omitted so as not to bias the analysis, but see spoiler)

Spoiler

Villain folded

 

[gustav197poker]

Rarely will villain have a hand like 67s and your float range doesn't seem very wide either. Sometimes you could bluff a hand like 98s, but that seems to overplay a bit in this texture. You have decent blockers, so your line looks good despite the risk.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Maybe we can squeeze here from time to time, but just calling is also fine and should probably be the default, since we are getting a good price, we are out of position to the original raiser, and our hand play fairly well multiway.

Flop
The preflop raiser is C-betting into 3 opponents, which should be a very strong range consisting mainly of overpairs, we have nothing but overcards and a backdoor draw, we are still out of position, and we are not getting a good price, since he went more than half pot. For all those reasons I just fold and move on with my life.

Turn
You picked up a flushdraw, and you face a smaller bet this time. I would never be here, but if I somehow accidentally pressed "call" on the flop, I think, you can go two different routes here. Either you can simply call again and draw for cheap, since he only bet like 25% pot. Or you can check-raise, but then it needs to be larger, so that you actually get some folds right here and now. Your sizing was less than half pot, and I dont think, an overpair ever fold to that sizing. I guess, it can be argued, that you build up the pot for a river bluff. But a larger check-raise would do that even more and also set it up, so you could jam the river.

River
If you are going to bluff, I guess, it needs to be big, because otherwise you are just getting snapped off by anything from TT-AA, which is most of his range.

Spoiler
Its cool, that the bluff worked, but I am not crazy about the way this hand was played on any street apart from preflop.

 

[kdmeteor]

The preflop raiser is C-betting into 3 opponents, which should be a very strong range consisting mainly of overpairs, we have nothing but overcards and a backdoor draw, we are still out of position, and we are not getting a good price, since he went more than half pot. For all those reasons I just fold and move on with my life.

I definitely didn't think it was an obvious call. That said, the reason why I thought it was an okay call is because I think a top pair is enough for most people to lead there. If I put villain on overcards, then I agree that a call is bad. I mean that makes a huge diference; in one case we're drawing to 6 outs plus backdoor equity, and in the other case only to backdoor equity.

I agree that the raise on the Turn was too small; I wanted to get a fold right there and I agree that a top/overpair is unlikely to fold unless I make it larger.

 

[kdmeteor]

Actually thinking about it more, I agree it's a bad call either way; seems too marginal to play OOP. I think if I'd been in position with the same hand, then a call would be defensible.

 

[fundiver199]

In position and less multiway it would definitely make more sense to float him with a hand like this.

 

[Station_Master]

Preflop- I think this is a mandatory squeeze spot with a hand as strong as KQs.

Flop- multiway facing a reasonable size bet, just fold. You have overcards and a bdfd, but it's not enough

Once you reach the turn, ok you could represent the 5, so I don't hate the line l, but I am also not sure your fold equity is great

 

[kdmeteor]

Preflop- I think this is a mandatory squeeze spot with a hand as strong as KQs.

The guy had a 6% PFR. It was only a small sample, but still.

Let's round up and say he opens 8% of hands on the LJ. That's this range:

Do you really want to raise KQs against this range? You have 40.3% equity. What if you get 4bet?

 

[Station_Master]

The guy had a 6% PFR. It was only a small sample, but still.

Let's round up and say he opens 8% of hands on the LJ. That's this range:

Do you really want to raise KQs against this range? You have 40.3% equity. What if you get 4bet?

I missed your comment about the super low PFR, call seems OK

 

[Aballinamion]

River: ($23.22) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero (BB) bets $30 (Villain action omitted so as not to bias the analysis, but see spoiler)

Our action on the river is good if we have enough information about villain's tendencies in spots like this. We like to bluff like that against average regulars and good players that tend to fold pretty good hands.
Otherwise, this is not a good bluff, because we called preflop capping our range and when we raise turn and jam river we have plenty of missed draws that justify our action. Villain might fold, of course, but weak players will tend not to believe our story from preflop to river and call lighter in order to level against us.