$200 NLHE 6-max: River sizing and assumptions

[John A]

Aggression was 68% in small sample on opponent (I'm 35/27 at this point in the session). My main question is about flop and river. I was contemplating an almost min CR on the flop to try and get AK/spazz hands to shove and build a pot against TT/JJ. I think I can assume even though it's a small sample my opponent is probably on the more aggressive side. Any takers on this line?

Do you like my river sizing to get calls from TT/JJ/9x and still get away from AA/KK vs a shove. I can safely assume worse value hands won't shove here, and I'm not getting bluffed off my hand here correct?


iPoker - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 205.13 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 131.76 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 120 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 7)
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 109.9 BB
MP: 103.96 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond: 9:diamond: 5:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets 9.75 BB, Hero calls 9.75 BB

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets 20.5 BB, Hero calls 20.5 BB

River: (80 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:
Hero bets 32 BB,

 

[TimovieMan]

This is way outside my stake level, but I'm guessing this gets max value from JJ/TT and we won't get raised by KK/AA either.
Checking would've likely meant that JJ/TT/9x check behind, while KK/AA would bet?
I agree that we're only getting raised by 99/flushes.

 

[MinhANguyen]

I don't like CR min-raising the flop because I don't think AK/many worse hands spaz shove. We also turn our hand face-up to 1010-QQ/9x, and unless our opponent is a donk who cannot hand read, he is not going to spaz shove. AKqq/AQdd are probably shoving, and so are AA/KK without a diamond. We also probably don't ever play our air/two overs + FD/KK or AA like this. You're pretty much folding out all of his bluffs and isolating yourself against 1010/JJ and KK/AA/AQdd/AKdd which crush you. And what's your plan for the turn if he calls? His range is going to be decently wide, you might be valueowning yourself, he might shove JJ/1010 putting you on a FD if you check, and you're OOP. Check-calling to keep his range wider seems better to me.

Our range for leading the river, even 40% PSB, is pretty strong. I think JJ/1010/A9s if he barrels turn with that are probably finding a fold. I think it might be best to check-call flop and turn, and fold river. He's almost never value betting worse. He knows we have an overpair, and I don't expect people to try to blow us off QQ/JJ. And he really doesn't have that many bluffs in his range anyway other than the Ad, and he probably gives up on the river a good % of the time. In my experience, people just aren't usually willing to 3-barrel off their entire stack vs a strong yet capped range.

Although it's a small sample size, he has a 0% 3-bet. I would check-fold river if he fired and give him credit for KK/AA/AKdd.

Just wondering, what site do you play at?

 

[rhombus]

Do you like my river sizing to get calls from TT/JJ/9x and still get away from AA/KK vs a shove. I can safely assume worse value hands won't shove here, and I'm not getting bluffed off my hand here correct?

River: (80 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero bets 32 BB,

You've already bet about 40 out of 109 so 69 BB left. Can you really bet 32 and fold with an over pair with only another 37 to call about 17%

I'd probaly check call up to about 40 and fold to shove

Just wondering, what site do you play at?

Bovada I think

 

[Sneaky Feet]

Aggression was 68% in small sample on opponent (I'm 35/27 at this point in the session). My main question is about flop and river. I was contemplating an almost min CR on the flop to try and get AK/spazz hands to shove and build a pot against TT/JJ. I think I can assume even though it's a small sample my opponent is probably on the more aggressive side. Any takers on this line?

Do you like my river sizing to get calls from TT/JJ/9x and still get away from AA/KK vs a shove. I can safely assume worse value hands won't shove here, and I'm not getting bluffed off my hand here correct?


iPoker - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 205.13 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 131.76 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 120 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 7)
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 109.9 BB
MP: 103.96 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q<font color='black'>♠</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font>

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 5<font color='red'>♦</font> 9<font color='red'>♦</font> 5<font color='black'>♠</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 9.75 BB, Hero calls 9.75 BB

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) 3<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 20.5 BB, Hero calls 20.5 BB

River: (80 BB, 2 players) 6<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero bets 32 BB,

I think a min raise on the flop is good here but do we think CO is 3 betting suited cards? Maybe if he's on 34, 56 or double gapped as a bluff. More like KK+, AK, AQo, AJo, or A5s, A4s against UTG. Too bad you didn't have Qd in you hand that would have blocked a lot of hands.

Check call the turn and I think I'm check/call/fold river depending on bet size

I guess the way I see it if they call a flop raise with the diamond on the turn, either you're beat, or you're beat.

 

[John A]

You've already bet about 40 out of 109 so 69 BB left. Can you really bet 32 and fold with an over pair with only another 37 to call about 17%

I'd probaly check call up to about 40 and fold to shove



Bovada I think

Yeah, that's my whole point really. I mean if I bet something here, I don't think I'll be seeing TT/JJ ever. When he bets the turn here I expect him to have something almost always here. They have the be concerned about me having a flush or QQ+/FH. KK+ though on the river, and flushes and FH I expect to jam. So it's not like there's a worse value range I expect to jam, and he knows that I know I'm getting great odds to call any bluffs, so it makes no sense for him to bluff.

My main question is about the flop, which I think I prefer in order to get overly aggressive hands to make moves. It happens a lot at this level, and also worse value hands. It was probably the best play. But by the river, did I hit that perfect sizing? Not 100% sure...

For the record he tanked and called w/ JJ.

 

[Trabendo_daze]

I think this hand comes down to perceptions - what does he think you have? What can he represent?

Based off the small sample size, I don't think we can say much about his 3-betting range, but I think when you're calling the 3b OOP after raising UTG, your hand looks like TT+.

When he bets this flop, he could either have an over pair or possibly something like AK with a diamond, maybe even AJdd. I'm not sure if check-raising against this range, especially with your perceived range, is necessarily the best move. Your hand just seems really transparently QQ+ and you allow him to make too many correct decisions.

His turn bet makes me a bit worried. Wouldn't TT, JJ check back here? I guess since he is quite aggressive, we can keep these in his range. Check-calling turn is good with me.

On the river his range is broken up into three parts: air like AKo with a diamond, over pairs that you beat like JJ TT, and overpairs that you lose to like KK AA.

JJ TT aren't betting but might call a bet. KK AA are probably betting and you're calling, and AKo might do either.

I guess it comes down to where you really think he is. If you bet out it certainly seems very strong but if you think he has JJ or TT as a large part of his range, and that he'll call a bet go ahead and bet river.

I think it sounds really nitty, but my analysis makes me think that we should just be check calling down here. It keeps his bluffs in and any betting is more likely to result in us value owning ourselves than in us getting value from worse. I think our hand is too transparent if we take one of these other lines.

 

[Islanders227]

Hey please help

Hey I saw your question was on higher stakes so I hope you're skilled and can help which is why I send you this messGe. Please respond if you have a second. I know basics on all games poker is my specialty. I read every book I Am more then am abc player.
Here is my question. I have always been a profitable live player. I And up lifetime probably 20k live poker.
Online I just cannot do it. I am negative probably -15k . I have played thousands of hours trying. My claim to fame was I took 1 out of 10k person tourney with a 1 buy in on party poker back when lol.
So I can play online and grind steady making money all day. I after an if I'm in I will almost always up one full buy in. I can outplay people, call their hands, trap them, steal pots, semi bluff, basically play well and grind no problem. But eventuLly I lose my whole or hLf stack in one hand and I'm out or borderline in ruin. And also when this happens more times then not i lose because I want to see his cards and prove myself right. And 8/10 I am but I lost my money.
So what traits would lead to a player steadily making Money all the time but one big lapse and I lose it all or hAlf of what I have in plY. It's not like I can't money I can. But I am break even player because of this leak in my game and I need help to fix it... Any ideas???

 

[MinhANguyen]

It's simply because online is so much more difficult than live. If you can't beat online, then you cannot "outplay" people as well as you think you can and are overestimating your skill level.

 

[6bet me]

I like your thinking of leading out on the river with the intention of folding to a raise. The only issue is: when you lead out on the river for less than half pot, what does your range look like? Do boats ever do this? Straights? Sets? Quads? Overpairs? More importantly: what percentage of your river donking range (especially for only 40% pot) is going to be calling a river shove? Are you the kind of player that will fold sets, straights and weak flushes when your river donk bet gets raised? If you're calling a river shove a very small percentage of the time in these spots, then the villain might get clever and shove the river with a hand like TT or Adx as a bluff.

I've seen some pretty crazy stuff at the high stakes. I once saw a player bet around 80% of his remaining stack on the river, then fold to a raise, and the guy who raised him had K high. Some players are extremely clever like this and realise that just because you appear to be pot-committed, doesn't mean you actually are intending to call that river raise.

 

[jsh169]

I like this line on a readless site like Bovada, not so much where you have 1000s of hands on an opponent. I think a bet like this can and will stop a lot of ks and aces to shoving over the top, flushes are not a huge % of either of your ranges, and would guess the caller has a few more suited hands.

 

[John A]

I like your thinking of leading out on the river with the intention of folding to a raise. The only issue is: when you lead out on the river for less than half pot, what does your range look like? Do boats ever do this? Straights? Sets? Quads? Overpairs? More importantly: what percentage of your river donking range (especially for only 40% pot) is going to be calling a river shove? Are you the kind of player that will fold sets, straights and weak flushes when your river donk bet gets raised? If you're calling a river shove a very small percentage of the time in these spots, then the villain might get clever and shove the river with a hand like TT or Adx as a bluff.

I've seen some pretty crazy stuff at the high stakes. I once saw a player bet around 80% of his remaining stack on the river, then fold to a raise, and the guy who raised him had K high. Some players are extremely clever like this and realise that just because you appear to be pot-committed, doesn't mean you actually are intending to call that river raise.

My hand looks like what it is, and overpair, but all of them would most likely bet around this range to slightly more. I guess you think I should check/fold the river then instead of value/block.

I've played much higher stakes than this for a long time, and the last think you're talking about rarely happens. I can live with the occasional person outwitting me in this spot when 95%+ of opponents won't think to shove as a bluff. Besides, this wasn't high stakes, it was 200nl against average decent regs.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Appreciated.

 

[John A]

Hey I saw your question was on higher stakes so I hope you're skilled and can help which is why I send you this messGe. Please respond if you have a second. I know basics on all games poker is my specialty. I read every book I Am more then am abc player.
Here is my question. I have always been a profitable live player. I And up lifetime probably 20k live poker.
Online I just cannot do it. I am negative probably -15k . I have played thousands of hours trying. My claim to fame was I took 1 out of 10k person tourney with a 1 buy in on party poker back when lol.
So I can play online and grind steady making money all day. I after an if I'm in I will almost always up one full buy in. I can outplay people, call their hands, trap them, steal pots, semi bluff, basically play well and grind no problem. But eventuLly I lose my whole or hLf stack in one hand and I'm out or borderline in ruin. And also when this happens more times then not i lose because I want to see his cards and prove myself right. And 8/10 I am but I lost my money.
So what traits would lead to a player steadily making Money all the time but one big lapse and I lose it all or hAlf of what I have in plY. It's not like I can't money I can. But I am break even player because of this leak in my game and I need help to fix it... Any ideas???

Yeah, that's not easy. But you have to get your mindset into a place that you're accepting that you're playing a game of incomplete information. If you're understanding hand ranges and combos well enough, you don't need to see someone's hand. You just fold knowing that versus that range it's the correct thing to do. My best guess is that you don't understand how to do that yet, so you're stuck trying to validate your opinions and guesses so you can pay yourself on the back when you're correct, and "sleep tight" when you're incorrect because you get to see the actual hand.

So my best advice is learn hand range, equity, and combos so you can stop trying to bluff catch, or verify your expert opinions on someone's hands. Good players don't need to see someone's hands to know when they're making the correct play.

 

[6bet me]

My hand looks like what it is, and overpair, but all of them would most likely bet around this range to slightly more. I guess you think I should check/fold the river then instead of value/block.

I've played much higher stakes than this for a long time, and the last think you're talking about rarely happens. I can live with the occasional person outwitting me in this spot when 95%+ of opponents won't think to shove as a bluff. Besides, this wasn't high stakes, it was 200nl against average decent regs.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Appreciated.

I wasn't saying you should check/fold the river. In fact, I actually like the bet/fold line in this spot. I was just saying that it's good to at least acknowledge the downsides of taking a specific line and acknowledge the ways in which it could potentially be exploited, even if you think that 95% of players at your stake won't exploit you for it.