$2 NLHE 6-max: Should you ever fold here?

[Alucard]

V just sat in. The way he's playing looks like a fish. Some idiots just rip it in then just pay off the rake by chopping. Still the bet is huge. HU play.

partypoker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 389 BB
SB: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 28.12, PFR: 15.61, 3Bet Preflop: 5.63, hands: 13,510)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ad Jc
SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2 BB

Flop : (6 BB, 2 players) 3s 7d Ah
Hero bets 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB

Turn : (12 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero bets 7.5 BB, SB calls 7.5 BB

River : (27 BB, 2 players) 7h
Hero checks, SB bets 91 BB and is all-in,?

 

[terryk]

Just not worth it,,feel like a jerk if he turns a 7,lol. cguru: (but then my ego gets in the way sometimes)

 

[Alucard]

haha mine as well. I'll not post the results just yet but read this theory terry. Very interesting.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/zeebo/

 

[kozong]

most fishes would make this move w/ 3x or any pocket pairs too right?

maybe risking 30bb for 90bb is not wise, but im just too stubborn to fold

would he also shove, if we bet the river?

 

[KarlAbbott01]

He is a fish. Limped the flop and turn, if he had a 7 I'm sure he would of tried to gain some value before the river card or he's playing a straight forward game. Over all, I'd call but that's my personal opinion.

 

[hurtadoak]

I would call too, LOL.

 

[IPlay]

Villain doesn't look like the type to limp Ax and play it like this on the river so what else does he have? Doesnt have stats of someone that will bluff shove the river for almost 4x pot euther

 

[Alucard]

Villain doesn't look like the type to limp Ax and play it like this on the river so what else does he have? Doesnt have stats of someone that will bluff shove the river for almost 4x pot euther

Hud stats are wrong. I don't think I've played at least 10 hands with him. Pt has gone crazy

 

[AlexTheOwl]

Villain doesn't look like the type to limp Ax and play it like this on the river so what else does he have? Doesnt have stats of someone that will bluff shove the river for almost 4x pot euther

Even with the stats being wrong, this is a great point.

If villain has an A or a pocket pair, you expect him to raise pre-flop.

Villain calls your flop bet, probably without an A. Your flop bet doesn't mean much to the villain, since it might be a c-bet that you would make with any hand. But he probably doesn't call unless he thinks he has some reasonable chance at winning. So what is his plan?

- Maybe he's just planning to float you.

- Maybe he was trying to trap you pre-flop by calling with a pocket pair. He has a pocket pair or a set.

- Maybe he has a 7 or a 3, and he knows that heads-up, any pair on the flop is usually ahead.

If any of these is the case, he's testing whether you really have an Ace. If you don't bet the turn, he will bet. If you bet the turn, he will fold.

- Maybe he does have an A after all.



Now the turn comes, and you bet. It certainly looks like you have an A, a set, or two pair.

But he calls. What does he call with?

- An A. This is somewhat unlikely, since, again, we would have expected him to raise pre-flop. Also, you have an A and there is an A on the board, so there are only two other Aces in the deck.

- A set. Again, this is somewhat unlikely since we would have expected a raise pre-flop.

- A 7. He has trips now. He could three-bet you here, but if he does you might fold. If he just calls then you might bet the river too, and he can three-bet you then.

- This is the micros, so he could also have something like QJ or 88 and be pushing buttons for no discernable reason. That's unlikely too, but it happens.

So he could have an A, a set, some trash, or a 7 on the turn. But an A or a set are unlikely due to blockers and the pre-flop action, and the trash is unlikely due to the turn action.

Sounds a lot like a 7.



On the river there are two possibilities:

- One of three unlikely things happened: he got here through having an A, a set, or an inability to find the fold button,
AND he then decided to bluff.

- He has a 7.

It's a really hard decision. I call, but I am not happy about it.

 

[Alucard]

You should try to shorten these comments down mate.
I get a headache reading them

The V had a 7.
At 2NL people don't know how to play HU. Sometimes they do whatever they want including limping with an ace and any two cards as well. And this player was like that.
I think it comes down to does he has a 7 or not? Even if he didn't is it worth it to call it down.

As per zeebos theorem he took the maximum from me.

 

[ELPRIIINCIPE]

I did not understand the post

 

[braveslice]

Hud stats are wrong. I don't think I've played at least 10 hands with him. Pt has gone crazy

Go to manage databases, create new one and set that as a default.

 

[Reborn_Jobi]

In my opinion dont worth the call. I would not put my chips in the middle for 91bb having his chance to have the 7.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

You should try to shorten these comments down mate.
I get a headache reading them

Sorry about that. I'll send you two ibuprofen

My first instinct was to say call, he's mostly bluffing, there's only one card in the deck that beats you.

But IPlay's comment forced me to think through his possible holdings street by street, and I realized how difficult the decision is.

That was valuable for me, although seeing it in print was possibly painful for everyone else. :dong:

 

[terryk]

haha mine as well. I'll not post the results just yet but read this theory terry. Very interesting.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/zeebo/

Theories are just that,theories,i wipe my azz with them When your in battle,i find they get you/me into trouble,don`t overthink these idiots,trust your instincts