[100NL FR] Bread and butter

[BelgoSuisse]

Warning: This thread is going to contradict HA forum rules because i post results. Don't do this at home.

I realised most of the hands we post here are about really tough decisions in really big pots. But poker is really not such a complicated game after all. So I just wanted to illustrate how i actually make most of my money.

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+2: $150.10 (150.1 bb)
MP1: $114.20 (114.2 bb)
MP2: $79 (79 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $25.25 (25.3 bb)
SB: $293.70 (293.7 bb)
BB: $98.85 (98.9 bb)
UTG+1: $86 (86 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K

T

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls $5, MP2 folds

Flop: ($14.50) Q

2

2

(2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $9, UTG+2 folds

Results: $14.50 pot ($0.70 rake)
Hero mucked K

T

(a pair of Twos) and won $13.80 ($7.80 net)

 

[zachvac]

Yep, spot on. Most tough decisions don't really matter, because if they're really tough there's not much of an ev difference either way and they only come up a few times per session. It's hands like these that come up constantly that we make money from. Isolating fish and betting dry boards where we know they almost never have a hand, or against calling stations isolating them and valuetowning them when we have a hand.

 

[Stick66]

I usually get away with C-betting like crazy for a day or 2 until the regs get a clue. I actually had to drop down from 50NL to 25NL after taking C-bets too far (among other things). How do you prevent your opponents from getting wise and snapping you off, Belgo?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I usually get away with C-betting like crazy for a day or 2 until the regs get a clue. I actually had to drop down from 50NL to 25NL after taking C-bets too far (among other things). How do you prevent your opponents from getting wise and snapping you off, Belgo?

You don't cbet all the time. I'm at 65% I think (full ring). Depends on villain and flop texture. Fold to cbet% is a must on you HUD.

There's a really nice video on stoxpoker about that in the free section.

And then, you learn how to double and triple barrel.

 

[The Shrog]

This is really good stuff, ty Belgo. I may be moving the fold to cbet% into my HUD.

 

[eNTy]

This is really good stuff, ty Belgo. I may be moving the fold to cbet% into my HUD.

I've had the cbet flop% and fold to flop cbet% in my HUD for ages and it's very helpful.

I just think I used to cbet flops too much. Like AK/KQ hands that missed I would cbet and hope to take it down. A lot of the times I did but then when I didn't I could get carried away and double or triple barrel when he obviously had it.

But since I started again I think I toned it down enough. I dont cbet 100% anymore and I seem to be selecting the spots to cbet better.

If I look at my whole database my cbet% is 80% so that's pretty nutty.

 

[Stick66]

Wow. Last year, my Flop Cbet% was 75 and this year (Jan) it's 65. Maybe I'm learning. LOL

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Yep, spot on.

Thanks.

The thing is, it's hard to realize, because the tough decisions in the big pots is the major component of your short term success or losses. So you focus on them.

But unless you are a super fish and take terrible decisions in big pots on a regular basis, what affects your long term success is how you handle all the small pots. How often you steal, how much you isolate fishes, how pertinently you cbet, how you size your bets. It's a lot of small tunings that have nearly no effect short term but have an overwhelming effect on your long term win rate.

 

[zachvac]

Wow. Last year, my Flop Cbet% was 75 and this year (Jan) it's 65. Maybe I'm learning. LOL

fwiw I've heard from several people that 65% is pretty close to optimal . I think I'm in the 65-70% range.

 

[Jagsti]

Actually my CB % is 65% and I thought that it was a little low tbh. Maybe 65% fine for FR, any thoughts on 6max, is 65% too low for that?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Actually, HEM allows you to also check the "flop cbet% success". i guess that's a good way to check if your cbets are profitable.

Mine is consistently around 50% accross 25, 50 and 100nl FR and 6max. Since I typically cbet 2/3 to 3/4 of pot, that means the move is hugely profitable. I guess as you play a shitload of hands, you could force yourself to cbet a little more or a little less for a period of time and see how it affects cbetting profitability based on that "flop cbet% success" stat.

 

[Jagsti]

Right then, my flop cb success %age is only 47%, is that a problem? Also How often are you double barelling I more or less at 33%?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Right then, my flop cb success %age is only 47%, is that a problem?

depends on bet sizing. If I bet 3/4 pot and get 50% fold and you bet 2/3 pot and get 47% folds, then your approach would be a lot more +EV even though it gets a little less folds.

And tbh, since i don't size my bets with a AHK script, i don't know exactly what my bet is overall.

Also How often are you double barelling I more or less at 33%?

Nearly 50%, but i guess most of that is not air but either made hand or good draws. Also, my turn cbets have a much lower success rate at about 33% so it's not profitable overall to do it with air as i bet more than half pot, but there's enough fold equity overall to make it +ev with oesd or flush draws if i'm correct. With proper bet sizing of course.

 

[chigal]

table image

Isolating fish and betting dry boards where we know they almost never have a hand, or against calling stations isolating them and valuetowning them when we have a hand.[/QUOTE]

So, you raise your low pp and are the aggressor controlling the post flop action and you make your 1/2 pot c-bet or whatever amount and one person or two stay in and smoothe call you. When the turn comes up a blank again for you
do you check or keep c-betting? I get stuck here a lot, the dope on a rope if I bet the turn or having to fold when they bet after show down. Thanks.

https://www.cardschat.com/images/smilies/confused.gif

 

[aliengenius]

What am I looking for in PT2 to see how often I c-bet?

This: ?

 

[ChuckTs]

Yes. And yours looks a little low.

 

[aliengenius]

PT, wow. I feel like I c-bet 90%...

 

[Tygran]

Nice post, absolutely dead on. This is something alot of people totally miss.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

What am I looking for in PT2 to see how often I c-bet?

This: ?

View attachment 16398

Actually, to get what is called "cbet%" in HEM, i think here it's the ratio between the bet and check %, because obviously you can't cbet when you're donked into.

also, note that the reason we can cbet a lot with a good success is that we play most pots in position. OOP, it's a lot easier for villains to float.

 

[Irexes]

Just to be clear, have we got the definition of a c-bet (as far as the stats go) clarified and formula for calculating it?

 

[F Paulsson]

Belgo has it right. It's when you have the chance to cbet, and do, compared to when you have the chance to cbet, and don't. I guess you could also open-fold the flop.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

So, you raise your low pp and are the aggressor controlling the post flop action and you make your 1/2 pot c-bet or whatever amount and one person or two stay in and smoothe call you. When the turn comes up a blank again for you
do you check or keep c-betting? I get stuck here a lot, the dope on a rope if I bet the turn or having to fold when they bet after show down. Thanks.

Well, it's a not big problem if you just give up and check fold a lot when you have air and your cbet got called. As we've seen with the stats posted so far, cbets work around 50% of the time for us, so they are profitable on average even if you always check-fold afterwards.

Typically you need a reason to fire a second barrel. Good reasons:

- turn card is a scare card that fits your opening range in villain's mind.
- you have a decent draw (flush or oesd for instance) and don't need a huge fold equity to make betting profitable since when you get called, you have decent equity in the pot.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Belgo has it right. It's when you have the chance to cbet, and do, compared to when you have the chance to cbet, and don't. I guess you could also open-fold the flop.

which makes AG's cbet% 57.12/(57.12+23.52+0.8) = 70%, which is fine afaik.