$1000 NL HE Full Ring: A full house dilemma

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$5/$10

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

$

This is a hand from the CrushlivePoker call-in show, which I found so interesting, that I want to post it here for discussion. The video can be found on Youtube, but I am not going to post a link, because I would like people to post their thoughts about the hand without watching Bart Hanssons analysis or the results first. Anyways the game is a live $3/$5 game with a mandatory $10 straddle. The effective stack with the main Villain is $1.815 so around 180BB deep.

Preflop
UTG straddle $10, UTG+1 call, MP (Hero) call with , BTN call, SB complete, BB complete, UTG (straddle) check.

Flop
Pot $60

SB bet 60, BB call, UTG fold, UTG+1 call, MP (Hero) call, BTN fold.

Turn
Pot $300

SB bet $105, BB fold, UTG+1 fold, MP (Hero) call.

River
Pot $510

SB check, MP (Hero) bet $220, SB all-in $1.650

Preflop should probably have been a raise, which Hero say in the call, that he would also normally do. Flop and turn seem pretty standard, although there might be a case for folding on the flop given the super multiway action. The most interesting street however is the river, where Hero fill up but still lose to K9 and 66. Would you fold the second top boat here, and would you even have bet in the first place?

 

[Station_Master]

Pre
This is such an obvious raise, hate the limp

Flop
SB leads for pot 6ways. Already alarm bells are ringing. There are two calls in front too. It's certainly tempting to fold. Seems unlikely anyone has AK so you could still be ahead of weaker Kx plus the flush draws. The worry is SB could easily.have 2 pair+ with his action. I probably call and play cautiously on future streets.

Turn
The small bet is wierd, I think it's a clear call.

River
The check could be a busted flush draw, counterfeit 99 or a trap. I think it's OK to bet , but I would fold to the raise which is almost always going to be K9 or 66.

 

[gustav197poker]

I think that if we think that some V in preflop can continue with many off combinations, it is reasonable to call preflop with a hand like KQoff. Flop seems standard to me. Turn looks a bit neutral. But if I don't give much credit to villain I just call.
On river the bet seems correct to me. And if he goes all in he will have to show me his only 4 combos K9off or 66, that's poker.

 

[fundiver199]

Ok so I am going to share a link to the video and my own thoughts about the hand now. I dont think, there is much more to be said about the first 3 streets other than the fact, which is discussed in the video, that when Villain bet again on the turn, we can pretty much remove all draws from his range. The reason is, he bet full pot on the flop and still got called by 3 players.

Given this flop action its almost impossible, that nobody has a K. So when another K comes on the turn, its a very bad card for any draws, and draws would almost always check and evaluate. Hope it checks through or they get a good price to continue. By betting small he is never getting trips to fold, and there is even a risk for him of getting raised, which would be very bad for a draw. So Villains range at this point is pretty much reduced to full houses and trips.

And this is also why, they discuss in the video, if there is even any reason to bet the river, if 99 is the only hand, that might make a crying call. Normally a K would bet here trying to get called by a 6, but its essentially impossible, that anyone ever has a 6 here. It was a 3 blind configuration, so SB would not complete with 96, and he would definitely not lead full pot into 5 players with just bottom pair. Just as Hero would not limp behind with 96 or call on the flop with bottom pair, after two other players have already called. And nobody can have 6X or 9X with a draw, because the two spades were the 6 and 9.

So while hero has good equity against Villains range on the river, its actually very thin to go for value. And when he did it anyway and face this check-jam, which is a big overbet, its definitely anything but a snap call. In the video they discuss, that Hero would be calling for a chop. But I think, even that is very optimistic. Because if its thin to bet KX for value, then what would Villain be trying to get called by, when he goes for all of it, especially when Hero can never have a 6? The far more reasonable line for him would be to either bet a K himself or check-call and expect to at least chop a lot of the time.

To sum it up no worse hand or even the same hand should be doing this for value, and because of the turn action Villain should have no draws in his range. And even if he did have a busted draw like 87 of spades, it would make more sense for him to just continue betting rather than check-jam. The hand, that might be supposed to check-jam in GTO, is actually 99. The reason being, that if it goes check-check, it can sometimes win against a busted draw, that is giving up. But when it face a bet, the EV of jamming might be higher than calling, since 99 block 2 of the 4 nut combos.

But even if 99 always check-jam, which is highly questionable, Hero is hardly making any money by calling an overbet, because there are 4 combos of K9 and 66 but only 3 combos of 99. So I definitely think, this was a good fold, and it also play into the old mantra "never go broke in a limped pot". In limped pots the SPR is insanely deep, and this often results in situations, where only the actual nuts is good enough to play for all of the money. At least in cash games. If this was a 40BB tournament hand, then we just get it in and expect to at least chop most of the time.

 

[blueskies]

Worst part was preflop limp with KQos. No justification at all for that.

Post flop, really would depend on my read on the villain.

The small turn sizing when the board pairs after a pot size flop bet into five other players does smell like a FH hoping you are chasing a draw and you hit it on the river. If he merely had trips would he not continue to bet big to punish the draws? K9 really smells likely.

You are pretty much hoping for a chop and maybe he plays like that with K6.

On the river, how did villain act? Like his demeanor, the time he took, etc.

 

[fundiver199]

The small turn sizing when the board pairs after a pot size flop bet into five other players does smell like a FH hoping you are chasing a draw and you hit it on the river.

Exactly. Its either a "I am no longer sure I have the best hand" bet or a "please dont fold your draw" bet. And the latter seem the most likely option.

On the river, how did villain act? Like his demeanor, the time he took, etc.

There might be some mention of that during the call-in. Link is posted above.

 

[John A]

I didn't listen to the video or analysis.. but who are the people discussing the strategy?

But just as starters, you don't just value bet at HS in these spots because you have a wide range of second best hands that can call. Second, 96s w/ a straddle MW could limp (not great to do w/ a straddle and depends on how aggressive the straddle is). I would discount the hand, but it would still be in the range.

 

[eetenor]

Was looking at the Wizard and in a high rake 9 handed game ignoring the straddle If UTG1 were to raise to 2 we would be folding KQoff most of the time at 100 bb--- at 180 effective and expecting a multiway pot again just fold KQoff in MP and play KQs and you will be missing very little equity live.