$100 NLHE Full Ring: I snap fold this set on the turn

[John A]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/13/2

In a hand before this, MP (villain in this hand) opened, I 3-bet w/ JJ, MP called (with QQ). Flop was T high, check/check. Turn brought a straight draw, MP bet 2/3 pot, I called. River brought 4 to a straight on board (irrelevant for our hand ranges). River went check / check. Was pretty sure he had QQ and maybe even KK. Then this hand...

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)

BTN: 119.39 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, hands: 44)
SB: 85.75 BB (VPIP: 13.95, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 44)
BB: 115.98 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 173.11 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 44)
UTG+1: 99.88 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
MP: 110.89 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
Hero (MP+1): 153.28 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.95, PFR: 9.30, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 44)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:heart: 9:club:

fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) K:club: 9:spade: Q:club:
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 9.25 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 9.25 BB

Turn: (31 BB, 2 players) 7:diamond:
MP checks, Hero bets 20.5 BB, MP raises to 49 BB, fold

MP wins 96.9 BB

 

[Mahsa dMo]

Ok. So you put him on set of K or Q. Or J10?
Why you folded?
Flop is wet so I think if he had any of those he would raise the flop.

 

[razzor94]

Dont know what sample size, dynamic, reads do you have on this player to make this laydown.
I ask myself are you at the top of your range here ?
Are you folding too much if you are folding 3rd set here ?
Does he ever check raise here anything other then the nuts ?

 

[braveslice]

Hard to see any nutted hand that would not CB when 4 way pot. JT might call and raise turn (but he would not like T or J), but against that you have the implied odds to call. Another one KK, I think he would bet QQ and also KK most of the time. I rather see him defending with AA, TPTK, 2P against draws (if villain slow play monsters then he surely would be thinking this too)

 

[John A]

Just to answer all of the questions at once.

1) Yes, I'm at the top of my range... sort of. I don't think calling JTs in the HJ here is horrible. But I'm pretty much at the top.

2) The first hand I played vs. him was played nitty AND bad. So I have some pretty useful info.

3) Yes, him checking and playing KK/QQ/JT like this is completely horrible, and not near the ideal EV line.

Poker is about combining limited info quickly to make reads you can apply though right?

Seriously, I snap folded this hand. AND... I just got the actual hand data back literally right now.

I just got the hand right now, so I'll post results (whew):

*** TURN *** [Kc 9s Qc] 7♦
UTG+2 : Checks
UTG+3 [ME] : Bets $20.50
UTG+2 : Raises $49 to $49
UTG+3 [ME] : Folds
UTG+2 : Return uncalled portion of bet $28.50
UTG+2 : Does not show [Jd Td] (Straight)
UTG+2 : Hand result $68.40
UTG : Seat sit out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($72)
Board [Kc 9s Qc 7d ]
Seat+1: Dealer Folded on the FLOP
Seat+2: Small Blind Folded before the FLOP
Seat+3: Big Blind Folded on the FLOP
Seat+4: UTG Folded before the FLOP
Seat+6: UTG+1 Folded before the FLOP
Seat+7: UTG+2 $68.40 [Does not show]
Seat+8: UTG+3 Folded on the TURN
Seat+9: UTG+4 Folded before the FLOP

Not to be results oriented, but it's always good to get confirmation on your reads in spots where you wouldn't normally fold.

 

[Jillychemung]

A lot of players on a 2-tone board want to see the turn cheaply, even with their nut hands, to see if the 3rd suited card comes off. Only after they see the turn will they feel comfortable getting it AI.

Nice read here given villains nuttiness.

 

[Figaroo2]

Yeah really badly played by the villain, if he just bet the flop with the nuts on that drawy board and kept betting and calling off to any shove he'd have made a lot more on the hand. If he bet 1/2 to 2/3 pot on flop 99 has to call/raise, he does same on turn and what do you do with 99 and bottom set other than lose a bunch of chips if not your whole stack as villain could just be betting with AK KQ? By playing it this way and raising turn he gives away his nuttedness as we all know what a turn raise means here.

 

[srqgrinder]

I can't snap fold but might be able to find one. What a great decision. 18% vpip makes me think he doesn't get out of line too much but could definitely have the j10 there. You are blocking A9C.. Only semi bluffs in his range are AJ-10c and on such a wet board with kq he would look for showdown value and not 3 streets of value? His flat , his raising turn is very strong. Very well played.