$10 NLHE Full Ring: AA vs a minraise on a paired flop

[LD1977]

UTG ($6.84)
Hero (UTG+1) ($10.57)
MP1 ($10.35)
MP2 ($9.26)
MP3 ($9.65)
CO ($3.34)
Button ($6.86)
SB ($13.96)
BB ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A

, A

UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.25) 10

, 10

, Q

(4 players)
Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, Button raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.07 (All-In), Button calls $3.36 (All-In)

Turn: ($14.97) 6

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($14.97) J

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $14.97 | Rake: $0.74

OK, so here is the thing. I am losing big money in paired pots since I just keep running into flopped full houses (apparently the chance someone flops it is like 30%). Yes, spoiler, who cares.

Anyway, the big thing here is whether I am just epically unlucky or I am actually misplaying these hands.

BTN is 14 / 8 / 2% 3bet over 690 hands, no reads (apparently he is totally nondescript, I make a LOT of notes).
- AF 3, 37%, raises cbets 29% of the time (probably every time he hits TP or has a good pair).

My choice on the flop is basically fold or get it in since if I am behind I am catching a 2-outer and I am not a huge fish so I never catch those

Opinions?

Results below:

Spoiler

Button had Q

, Q

(full house, Queens over tens).
Hero had A

, A

(two pair, Aces and tens).
Outcome: Button won $14.23

 

[ChrisAt1]

I think he seems tight passive based on the stats and how chose to take the flop four way. So his raise says he has something made already. His raise size says he's not folding to a re-raise. If he were inclined to fold after getting pot committed you'd probably have a note about it. Maybe you could have just called to check it down or rep a scare card.

 

[ChrisAt1]

Also, I think you got really unlucky in this hand. I wonder about the profitability of AA on a paired board out of position with three callers.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Fold. His stats ARE your read. 14/8 is nitty as sh*t. He is clearly only betting/raising with a strong hand and probably wouldn't raise with just a pair of Queens or worse. He was sitting on the button with QQ and didn't 3bet preflop - he's NOT putting his money in the pot without a winner.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Raising the flop is pretty bad against a tighter player who has just seen you bet into 4 opponents but decides to min raise you anyway. You can probably call the min bet since you have the As and try to turn some equity but folding is likely best.

 

[LD1977]

Just calling changes nothing since he only has 3.36$ left behind (note his stack) and is putting it in regardless.

Lets see what he is raising with here (29% raise cbet is pretty big):
- 3 combos of QQ
- 1 combo of TT (yeah, yeah, but he is raising QQ so why not quads too especially since theoretically I could have QQ then for a whopping 1 out)
- 2 combos of AQs (surely in his flatting range)
- 6 combos of AQo, but lets say 3 combos since I am not sure he flats offsuit hands.
- 1 combo of ATs (only 1 is possible with this board), not sure if he flats that but lets say he does since 3 people are already in.
- lets disregard ATo since it seems too weak to flat for this guy (?)
- zero combos of KK (even though I think he might actually flat it here vs 3 people just to see if flop brings an Ace and if not attack the flop), JJ (too nitty to raise it?), smaller pairs

So, I beat 5 combos of AQ out of 10 combos total... if the above is realistic. If we include KK (which might be possible) then it is even better.

 

[WVHillbilly]

- 2 combos of AQs (surely in his flatting range)
- 6 combos of AQo, but lets say 3 combos since I am not sure he flats offsuit hands.

Why would he raise with these hands?

 

[doomasiggy]

Think this is a call flop. People like to minraise paired boards as a bluff in my experience, so I think we x/c down depending on turn cards & bet sizing.

Sigh, need to read stats before folding. He's never bluffing here. Still call flop and re-evaluate on the turn based on bet sizing and whether or not we gain equity.

 

[LD1977]

WVH - Because he doesn't want my AK to catch a King? Raising with near nuts with his stack is even more nonsensical.

 

[WVHillbilly]

WVH - Because he doesn't want my AK to catch a King? Raising with near nuts with his stack is even more nonsensical.

Disagree. AK has 3 outs if he holds AQ. Also AK folds to a raise. That little min raise with his stack size isn't looking for a fold.

 

[LD1977]

Do you think I should disregard the raise cbet stat altogether?

BTW I have it on my HUD to help me navigate a bit (some people donk 40% and raise cbet 40%, both of which I find a bit suspect).

Also, isn't folding AA here to any raise a bit too nitty? I remember people telling me that not every raise is trips+ on paired boards, and those are the boards where most aggression is shown on average.

 

[WVHillbilly]

I have no idea what a high number for that stat would be and I know it will vary based on how tight a player is preflop.

 

[pierceisgod]

I think you shouldnt have cbet on the flop because you are just thinning out all of the value anyways if he had only $6 behind in his stat so I think you played that hand kind of bad even though you got unlucky

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Do you think I should disregard the raise cbet stat altogether?

BTW I have it on my HUD to help me navigate a bit (some people donk 40% and raise cbet 40%, both of which I find a bit suspect).

Also, isn't folding AA here to any raise a bit too nitty? I remember people telling me that not every raise is trips+ on paired boards, and those are the boards where most aggression is shown on average.

I think his raise cbet stat means that whenever he has a piece of the flop he is playing it aggressively. Considering how nitty he is preflop, it is unlikely that he's hitting middle or bottom pair when he does catch part of the flop because he's probably only playing AK and pocket pairs.

I don't think it is nitty to fold AA here because of his stats. From my experience, players who are that tight preflop aren't going to be pushing stacks in with a pair of Qs or worse on a board like that.

 

[Aleksei]

Flop: ($2.25) 10

, 10

, Q

(4 players)
Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, Button raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.07 (All-In),

What in the hell do you think he calls a 3bet shove with that an overpair beats?

 

[nuts30]

flop bet on 3bet fold you have 10x or QQ

 

[John A]

How many streets of value do you think you can get against Qx/JJ type hands against an ultra nit like this? You're in a wa/wb situation OOP against 3 opponents.

Any ways, as played, the flop shove is fine. Most of his range is going to be Qx, and he's short, so it's not a bad spot to get it in.

 

[micromoi]

it's well played but i'm shocked that he did not re raise u preflop.
better luck next time u cant do much about it.

 

[LD1977]

I only need 2 streets with his stack, if he calls then he probably has a FD/AQ/PP and if FD misses I am shoving turn anyway.


I seriously don't see how checking the flop OOP vs 3 people is doing anything except inviting coolers (from pairs which can catch a turn set or flush draws).