$10 NL HE 6-max: Thinking in terms of pot odds (preflop all in against two opponents)

[ArcaneHuman]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

I want to understand how to think about this hand using basic poker math and basic analytics because i really need to start thinking mathematically. This is play money but the table played pretty true to the game of poker. I find this hand really interesting and i'm sure there can be something learned from it. There are definitely fundamentals that i'm not understanding. So let me know how you play the hand and share your line of thinking! TIA.

4 handed table blinds (100/200 goldcoin) 20,000 buy in
Hero has A s Q c on the button.
EP/CO (first to act) villain min raises to 400.

Hero raises to 800 gold coin.
SB villain goes all for 2,955 gold coin
BB folds
EP villain calls with 35,430 behind
Hero has 42,100 behind

Hero goes into the tank briefly.

I put both players (accurately) on having some sort of middle pocket pairs. I felt like i had a better hand than either of them by a small margin but the fact that EP villain had so much behind made me not want to have to play against her post flop for the side pot and there were so many elements to contemplate that i wasn't thinking properly about. I considered shoving as an option. Calling was another. But....

Hero folds.

I don't think it's super important to see how this hand actually played out because i'm concerned about the theoretical aspects of this hand but i would have hit my A and Q for two pair.

So how would you look at this preflop decision? What poker math would you apply here? What kind of analytical process would be going on for you? What conclusions would you arrive at?

 

[fundiver199]

A 3-bet should typically be around 3X in position and not just 2X. When there is a 4-bet jam from the short stack and then a call from original raiser, I prefer to call as well. Postflop is going to be pretty straight forward with a dry sidepot, since neither player has a real incentive to bluff. Folding is the second best option, and the worst option would be to jam or 5-bet in some way.

 

[georgi krastev]

CC have a poker hands converter...

Can you provide a hand history of the hand... it will be more easy...

 

[ArcaneHuman]

CC have a poker hands converter...

Can you provide a hand history of the hand... it will be more easy...

How do i do so? I went to the hand converter and entered the link to my hand: https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/a413f533-ee59-3d82-b246-45cf4108c921

Then it says in red text: "There was a problem converting your hand. Please contact us with any questions."

 

[georgi krastev]

How do i do so?

Are there any such or similar options in the room where you play: in the photo I have marked with two arrows; on the left is for the repetition of the hand; on the right is to show the history of the hand; click on the right option and the history is displayed; copy and paste into the converter...

I went to the hand converter and entered the link to my hand: https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/a413f533-ee59-3d82-b246-45cf4108c921

I have no access to this...

 

[Ace of Spad3s]

First off, if your reads are correct and villains both hold a pocket pair, you should realise that you are actually behind slightly vs a single one of them, 55 vs 45-ish %, depending on the pair they hold. Against both pocket pairs in a 3-way pot your equity is ~37%. So you don't have a slightly better hand at all, unless you connect with the board somewhere. Still, you should play this hand.

Preflop
Villain minraises you, and you min 3-bet aswell. You're better of sizing it 3x if you're looking for value, or if you are looking for folds maybe larger. SB shoves and CO calls.
Going for a 4-bet with this hand would have to be a shove, because the chips will end up in the middle anyway due to the potsize being rather large already after a 4-bet. But do you really want to do that with 45% equity vs the CO in the side pot? It's a rather large risk/small gains balance to get CO to fold here.

Folding on the other hand is a mistake aswell, I would consider folding if CO put in a large 4-bet, but in this case a AQo can easily make the call. If you completely miss the flop you can check it down no charge. And if you face aggression, you can easily fold. But if you hit you are most likely ahead of the CO, and you should only consider folding postflop if you think CO hit a set.

 

[ArcaneHuman]

Word. Thank you. I don't know why i said that my hand was better as i thought it was approximately a flip against each opponent. i guess i was off by a small but significant margin.

Against both pocket pairs in a 3-way pot your equity is ~37%.

That makes sense. Obviously i had a slight feel for the fact that being up against two opponents was statistically harder to make the best hand but I need to start calculating EVs instead of just winging it. thx.

i didn't consider my initial raise a 3-bet so much as a corrective action, putting in the first 3xBB raise, but I get what you're saying though. I guess even though he/she min raised it i should in the future size such a bet as 3x her bet or larger. I read that we're supposed to add an additional BB per limper which is why i chose 800. i know my thought process is a confusing a bit but whatever. what you're saying makes sense.

Going for a 4-bet with this hand would have to be a shove, because the chips will end up in the middle anyway due to the potsize being rather large already after a 4-bet. But do you really want to do that with 45% equity vs the CO in the side pot?

I'm a bit confused. Wasn't the SB's all in shove the 4-bet if we're considering my initial raise the 3-bet? Why would i assume that the CO (With such a deep stack) would just check every street with me? That's part of why i didn't want to mess with this siutation. I didn't want to get bet off the hand after the flop. It just sounds like a really expensive play and seeing a large raise to get the chance to win a side pot didn't seem attractive. let me know if my thinking is faulty here though.

 

[Ace of Spad3s]

I'm a bit confused. Wasn't the SB's all in shove the 4-bet if we're considering my initial raise the 3-bet? Why would i assume that the CO (With such a deep stack) would just check every street with me? That's part of why i didn't want to mess with this siutation. I didn't want to get bet off the hand after the flop. It just sounds like a really expensive play and seeing a large raise to get the chance to win a side pot didn't seem attractive. let me know if my thinking is faulty here though.

Yeah you are correct. SB made the 4-bet shove here. I meant to type 5-bet, my bad.

The thing is, against 2 opponents with both a pocket pair, you own the largest equity part (37%) vs. 31.5% for every one of your opponents. So, 63% of hands you will lose. But you will win 37% times and triple up your bet. Also there is this thing called implied odds to take into account: what do you stand to gain when you hit? Now while I think putting someone on a specific hand is a bad idea, thinking in ranges is a lot better, let's go with the 2 pocket pairs.

You put them both on a pocket pair, meaning if you hit an A or Q, you will take down that pot most of the time and if you are lucky, a big pot aswell. Since SB is the aggressor and all in already at just 15BB, and prior you put in the 3-bet vs the CO, odds are CO isn't going to just bet into you, unless he hit his set or bluffs. At that point, it should be easy for you to make the fold. So while you are correct to not assume villain is going to check down every street with you, don't assume he will bet into you on every street either.

There is quite some calculation going on to see if this is the correct play EV wise in the long run, taking into account fold equity and such, and honestly I'm not that great at it either. Maybe some other forumer with the knowledge could inform you better on it, but i'll try:

Roughly speaking, let's say you run this exact situation a 100 times. When you call, it cost you ~3000. When you win, you win ~9000+ (more if you hit that A or Q).

- You invested: 100x3000 = 300.000 chips and in those situations:
- You lost 63 times: 63 x 3000 = -189.000
- You win 37 times: 37 x 9000 = +333.000

333.000 - 189.000 = +144.000 = the amount you stand to gain in the long term of 100 times running this situation, not taking implied odds into account.

Now if you would fold this a 100 times:
100 x 800 = -80.000 = the amount you lose after 100 times.

So yeah, in this specific situation you should call that bet 100% of times because it is huge EV+ by 1440 per call.

 

[ArcaneHuman]

Are there any such or similar options in the room where you play: in the photo I have marked with two arrows; on the left is for the repetition of the hand; on the right is to show the history of the hand; click on the right option and the history is displayed; copy and paste into the converter..

Thanks for going through the trouble of sharing that screenshot but on globalpoker.com they don't seem to have an equivalent of what you shared here. I'm hoping it's okay if i continue posting to this "hand analysis" section of the forum using the same formatting i used here in my OP but i don't think there's a way of converting global poker's hand histories to this forum's preferred format.

The thing is, against 2 opponents with both a pocket pair, you own the largest equity part (37%) vs. 31.5% for every one of your opponents. So, 63% of hands you will lose. But you will win 37% times and triple up your bet.

Thanks for your analysis. It helps.

 

[georgi krastev]

Thanks for going through the trouble of sharing that screenshot but on globalpoker.com they don't seem to have an equivalent of what you shared here. I'm hoping it's okay if i continue posting to this "hand analysis" section of the forum using the same formatting i used here in my OP but i don't think there's a way of converting global poker's hand histories to this forum's preferred format.

I will request you if it is not a problem for you to share a similar screenshot like the one I shared just for reference...
Yes, the more details you share about the hand, the better it is for the analyst...
You are welcome...

 

[georgi krastev]

(Edit: After a quick search I understand that this poker room is for recrеаtional purposes; almost impossible to find any history of the hands… or if anything is found, it is partial; If you don't mind, I would recommend another poker room to practice)...

 

[georgi krastev]

Hand #1031244422 - Replay Poker

Watch a replay of any hand played on Replay Poker.

www.replaypoker.com

This hand is from Replay Poker... I am adding some tips in case you are interested,(<= at the link).

if you don't like poker stars and ACR, Replay Poker is a good choice (imo)...

 

[ArcaneHuman]

Hand #1031244422 - Replay Poker

Watch a replay of any hand played on Replay Poker.

www.replaypoker.com

This hand is from Replay Poker... I am adding some tips in case you are interested,(<= at the link).

if you don't like Poker Stars and ACR, Replay Poker is a good choice (imo)...

Global Poker is--on the surface--only "for recreation". Under the hood though, they're a full on cash game and tournament poker site. They use something called a sweepstakes model that is kind of like a legal loop hole which allows people to play for money (indirectly) in states of the US where online poker is illegal. I think only six states or so in the US allow online poker. I don't think there is another poker site that i could technically use. I live in New York state.

So i guess there's two ways you could respond to this: if you know of another site that i could use in NY state then let me know.

Additionally, i don't think there's anything i could take a screenshot of that would display my hand. Global Poker saves the hands, then you open it up and you can hit a play button and shows the whole hand play out over time as a kind of "video". There is no written log to take a screenshot of.