$10 NL HE 6-max: FH Facing River Shove, Signs Point to Fold

[blueskies]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

I have 7c7h at CO.

UTG opens to 30c. I call looking to setmine.

SB (maniac, super terrible, has about $5.50) and BB (a reg that I hadn't seen in a long time but I remember him, and I have almost no HUD data on, has $10) call.

Flop is 7d9c9s.

Checked around to me. I decided to check to let someone catch up a bit.

Turn is 5s. There's now a spade draw in addition to the straight draw.

Maniac leads out with 50c bet into $1.20 pot (not rake adjusted). BB calls. UTG folds. I raise to $1.36, trying to keep the flush and straight draws in as well as the 9. They both call. Should I raise to like $1.75 or $2 instead?

Maniac literally will do this with any two cards, but BB is the one I am a bit wary of here.

River is Jc.

SB bets $3.23 into the $5.28 pot. BB shoves.

Suddenly I don't like my FH anymore... If it's just SB, I am never folding, but I don't think BB would shove with 10 8 or just trips. There's no flush possibility so what could it be other than a FH. If BB already had me on the turn, I feel like he wouldn't have just flatted SB's bet or just called my raise, so for the line to make sense, he most likely has J9 or JJ. I also don't think he would just flat JJ preflop. So chances are J9. The only FH I can beat is 55. Or I gotta hope he somehow is overplaying his Ts8s.

It's a call of about $8.35 against the pot of about $16.80 (not rake adjusted)

But the problem is, I hovered my cursor over fold twice but couldn't click. As the timer was about to hit 0, I clicked call... SB folded, leaving himself with under 60c...

Spoiler

Jh9d. Goddam I still can't fold even though everything was screaming I was beat.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard call.

Flop
Ok spot to slowplay.

Turn
If you are going to raise, you need to get more money in the pot. You are giving them more than 4:1 with this sizing.

River
Sure this is strong action, but if you run into a bigger full house, then so be it. As you say, you beat 55 and T8, and JJ would likely have raised preflop. So in reality you are only worried about J9 and 97, which is only 8 combos. I am not fist-pumping, but I cant fold here to an unknown 10NL reg.

 

[Hujiko]

Turn
Can raise bigger but depends on stack sizes. How easy is it when either of them hit a hand (straight or flush) to get the money in?

River
Easy call if you think villain can do this with 55 as you just get the pot odds. JJ is likely to raise preflop so that can be discounted for quite a bit and well you block most of the 97 combos (only 97s should call preflop here) and J9 combos.

 

[fundiver199]

Spoiler

Jh9d. Goddam I still can't fold even though everything was screaming I was beat.

I would not beat myself up over this one. As agreed by everyone, there is at least one worse hand (55), that could be doing this for value. And whenever we beat potential valuebets, then we pretty much have to close our eyes and call. You are getting around 2:1, so if he have 8 combos, you lose to, you only need to find 4 combos, you beat.

I am also somewhat surpriced, he did not raise the small turn bet from the maniac. Trips need a bit of protection on a board of 997-5 2-tone, so its not a hand, I would expect to always slowplay. Which mean, that maybe we dont even give him the full 6 combos of J9 but weigh them down a bit. The hand is pretty much just a cooler in my opinion.

 

[Station_Master]

I am not convinced about flatting to set mine from CO, especially to a 3x open Maybe you can get away with it at 10NL, but as you move up this is a losing play. You will get squeezed alot forcing you to fold, rarely hit your set and when you do hit you need them to have something to pay you off without it being better than your hand (set over set, set v flush etc happens at a non trivial frequency).

3bet or fold, mostly folding.

As played post flop is fine though you should raise bigger on turn for value and so you can get stacks in on the river.

 

[fundiver199]

I am not convinced about flatting to set mine from CO, especially to a 3x open

I think, 77 is not strictly a setmine. Unlike 22-44 we can continue on a decent amount of boards and try to get it to showdown unimproved. But other than that I agree. Setmining against decent players is usually a losing play, because we dont get paid enough, when we hit, and coolers happen at a non trivial frequency. Like for instance in this hand.

 

[Station_Master]

I think, 77 is not strictly a setmine. Unlike 22-44 we can continue on a decent amount of boards and try to get it to showdown unimproved. But other than that I agree. Setmining against decent players is usually a losing play, because we dont get paid enough, when we hit, and coolers happen at a non trivial frequency. Like for instance in this hand.

Yeah I agree, 77 is just about strong enough to withstand some pressure when unimproved. Much better than the lower pairs. Also more likely to flop middle set than bottom set, leading to fewer coolers.

 

[Aballinamion]

I have 77 on BB. CO limps, SB limps, and I check.

Flop comes 447.

Which one of the flop is the flop? 744 or 799? Also I did not figure if you are sitting on the CO or the BB.

Flop is 7d9c9s.

Very good flop, most likely we own the nuts.

Checked around to me. I decided to check to let someone catch up a bit.

It's okay if we do check here. It's also okay if we decide to bit because there's a recreational involved into the pot and we want to get value as soon as possible.

Turn is 5s. There's now a spade draw in addition to the straight draw.

Maniac leads out with 50c bet into $1.20 pot (not rake adjusted). BB calls. UTG folds. I raise to $1.36, trying to keep the flush and straight draws in as well as the 9. They both call. Should I raise to like $1.75 or $2 instead?

I don't think our hand needs too much protection here. Still there is great chance we have the nuts, so our sizing is good.

It's a call of about $8.35 against the pot of about $16.80 (not rake adjusted)

Call it and let the chips fall as they may. Although I'm not sure if you had limped from CO or checked from the BB
If you checked from the BB we could find a fold here. If you raised preflop it's okay to call.
The result doesn't matter to me, we make the best move regardless of what opponents had shown.
Thank you for sharing your hand.

 

[blueskies]

Which one of the flop is the flop? 744 or 799? Also I did not figure if you are sitting on the CO or the BB.

Very good flop, most likely we own the nuts.

It's okay if we do check here. It's also okay if we decide to bit because there's a recreational involved into the pot and we want to get value as soon as possible.

I don't think our hand needs too much protection here. Still there is great chance we have the nuts, so our sizing is good.

Call it and let the chips fall as they may. Although I'm not sure if you had limped from CO or checked from the BB
If you checked from the BB we could find a fold here. If you raised preflop it's okay to call.
The result doesn't matter to me, we make the best move regardless of what opponents had shown.
Thank you for sharing your hand.

I think you mixed up this hand with another hand recently I had where I also had 77 and also flopped a FH but that time one of the other guys turned quads. That other hand was posted in a separate thread.

This hand, I was CO and called the UTG's 3x open.

 

[Aballinamion]

I think you mixed up this hand with another hand recently I had where I also had 77 and also flopped a FH but that time one of the other guys turned quads. That other hand was posted in a separate thread.

This hand, I was CO and called the UTG's 3x open.

Thanks for you attention. Yeah, I got a little confused. It's hard to fold Full Houses at low stakes, and I think that most of times we shouldn't be folding it. If villain has us, we take a note on it and move on. I also believe that you played this hand good.

 

[pokernomad]

So pre-flop, GTO says you should not be calling pairs from CO, and only raising 77 at a small frequency, however I get why you would call here to set-mine

Flop makes sense to me, but if you have maniac who will call with any 2 cards, shouldn't you be growing the pot? Especially multi-way, the chances are that someone else has picked up something on this flop

Turn - I agree with the above comments, you could bet bigger here

River - you are still beating value hands that may play this way and if they have a better full house, then that's how it goes. River shoves at 10NL is usually (but defiinately not always) a strong play but I would find it hard to fold as played.

 

[Aballinamion]

So pre-flop, GTO says you should not be calling pairs from CO, and only raising 77 at a small frequency, however I get why you would call here to set-mine

Flop makes sense to me, but if you have maniac who will call with any 2 cards, shouldn't you be growing the pot? Especially multi-way, the chances are that someone else has picked up something on this flop

Turn - I agree with the above comments, you could bet bigger here

River - you are still beating value hands that may play this way and if they have a better full house, then that's how it goes. River shoves at 10NL is usually (but defiinately not always) a strong play but I would find it hard to fold as played.

Jesus...stop with this GTO mindset. GTO is useful, I use it sometimes but we are not optimal robots playing against optimal bots where we use standard 33% of times actions or 50/50% times actions.
We must use our instincts and common sense. Plus, when we are on the action we are not allowed to use solvers.

 

[blueskies]

Jesus...stop with this GTO mindset. GTO is useful, I use it sometimes but we are not optimal robots playing against optimal bots where we use standard 33% of times actions or 50/50% times actions.
We must use our instincts and common sense. Plus, when we are on the action we are not allowed to use solvers.

Totally agreed.

Exploitive play is far superior to GTO at micro stakes. Might as well just hand the other players your coins if you stick to GTO at such stakes.

At low stakes the odds of a player having the hand that you think they have is far greater since most do not balance their play.

 

[Station_Master]

Jesus...stop with this GTO mindset. GTO is useful, I use it sometimes but we are not optimal robots playing against optimal bots where we use standard 33% of times actions or 50/50% times actions.
We must use our instincts and common sense. Plus, when we are on the action we are not allowed to use solvers.

Totally agreed.

Exploitive play is far superior to GTO at micro stakes. Might as well just hand the other players your coins if you stick to GTO at such stakes.

At low stakes the odds of a player having the hand that you think they have is far greater since most do not balance their play.

So why is GTO so wrong in saying 77 is a bad flat from CO? It tend to agree especially v 3x its just not a profitable call. How is calling here good exploitative play or good 'common sense' play. I dont really understand this anti GTO sentiment. How do you even exploit if you dont know what a theoretically sound base strategy is?! I agree you should exploit but dont be too quick to dismiss a fundamentally sound GTO strategy

 

[canbora]

i cant comment on all of whats going on in their reasoning. but ill say this, I find in low stakes cash games that small to midling pairs aren't as valuable as projected by GTO. Even flatting is bad, because you're basically saying "I'm set mining" which is great if you hit but you have a 12% of doing that, 18% if you see the river, providing a set is even good, without improvement to a boat. AKA, you're throwing your money away, most of the time in most cases. You can do it sometimes in BB or if theres a huge family pot. If you hit it pays for itself. Theres also the possibility everyone blocks themselves and everyone has garbage and you check it down and win. I've seen it all happen, but its the lesser. Most of the time the smaller pair is beaten and you're handing money away.

 

[Aballinamion]

So why is GTO so wrong in saying 77 is a bad flat from CO? It tend to agree especially v 3x its just not a profitable call. How is calling here good exploitative play or good 'common sense' play. I dont really understand this anti GTO sentiment. How do you even exploit if you dont know what a theoretically sound base strategy is?! I agree you should exploit but dont be too quick to dismiss a fundamentally sound GTO strategy

Hey mate, thanks for your reply. I never said that GTO is wrong or that is okay or not to flat 77 of CO or whatever position.
I actually like GTO and use it when it's useful. But what I really meant to say is that GTO shouldn't be a bible.
I'm not anti-GTO
My point a view is:

1) There is GTO that's cool
2) There is Exploitative Play that's cool
3) There is common sense that's cooler!

Between black and white there are infinite tones of gray, think about it.

Also, I'm gonna share some Negreanu's insights:

 

[fundiver199]

i cant comment on all of whats going on in their reasoning. but ill say this, I find in low stakes cash games that small to midling pairs aren't as valuable as projected by GTO. Even flatting is bad, because you're basically saying "I'm set mining" which is great if you hit but you have a 12% of doing that, 18% if you see the river, providing a set is even good, without improvement to a boat. AKA, you're throwing your money away, most of the time in most cases. You can do it sometimes in BB or if theres a huge family pot. If you hit it pays for itself. Theres also the possibility everyone blocks themselves and everyone has garbage and you check it down and win. I've seen it all happen, but its the lesser. Most of the time the smaller pair is beaten and you're handing money away.

This is 100% true. When I was a cash game grinder back in 2018-2019, I ran some filters in my PT4 database. And I was quite shocked to see, how much money I was losing with 22-44. And also small suited connectors by the way. These "implied odds" type hands just dont get paid often enough, when they hit, and coolers also happen at a non-trivial frequency. Like set over set, boat over boat, flush over flush and straight over straight. And the lower your cards, the more often you will be on the bad end of it. I did make money with 66-77 though, which is why, I say, these hands are not strictly setmines, and I dont hate Heros call in this hand.

 

[canbora]

This is 100% true. When I was a cash game grinder back in 2018-2019, I ran some filters in my PT4 database. And I was quite shocked to see, how much money I was losing with 22-44. And also small suited connectors by the way. These "implied odds" type hands just dont get paid often enough, when they hit, and coolers also happen at a non-trivial frequency. Like set over set, boat over boat, flush over flush and straight over straight. And the lower your cards, the more often you will be on the bad end of it. I did make money with 66-77 though, which is why, I say, these hands are not strictly setmines, and I dont hate Heros call in this hand.

Interesting statistic with 66 and 77

Also, its good to see that I'm right at least some of the time. hahahahhaha

 

[SrMartis]

If was in your shoes, man what a tought spot.

I was prone call, so it could be a mistake, but man what is the chances?

If I was you I do not care that much about it, surelly It does happens in 1 in a thousand viewed flops, someone hits the full house in the flop. The nut full house in the turn, then... What do I mean is,
this type of play happens rarelly.

If that reg was in your shoes, he's probably calling too.

So in the long run, this type of hand is so much break even I think.

 

[John A]

Bet flop... turn is meh. The problem is you need to raise now that you checked the flop. But raising into two people after this flop action is letting people know you have a big hand. As played... ya, not super happy about it, but I'm still calling considering the stakes and the opponents in the pot.

 

[AdamasDate]

Flop
Standard play

Turn
I dont like the size of the raise here if your saying hes crazy bet larger maybe 190 u want the money in asap

River
There aint a world where you fold this its a cooler spot plus you dont no enough about the reg so throw call chip in and if he got it so be it

 

[pokernomad]

I don't think you can worry about this too much - it's a bummer, but you just need to move on.

If you look at this from villain's pod, they flopped top set, and are happy to allow other people in a multi-way pot do the betting for them on the flop and turn believing they are probably ahead (even though the are not)

They river a better FH and they shove all-in - would they do this if they had not rivered a FH and still had a set of 9s? Would they do this with a worse FH? Would they do this as a bluff? If the answer is yes, then a call is fine and they sucked out on you - it happens.

If the maniac does not bet on the river, does villain play a set of 9s/worse FH/bluff the same in each circumstance? Does he shove with each of these hands (as he does with a better FH)?

 

[fundiver199]

If you look at this from villain's pod, they flopped top set

A set is, when you hold a pocket pair, and the same card come on the board. Like you have 99, and flop is 952, then you have top set. When the board is paired, and you hold the same card in your hand, its called trips. So the Villain had trips with a J kicker, which is not quite as strong as a set, since he would potentially lose to A9, K9, Q9, 97 and the 77, which Hero actually had.