$10 NL HE 6-max: 10 NL Mystery hands

[S3mper]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

Pot size isn't rake adjusted but it's 5% with a 0.75 cap.

Hold'em No Limit (0.05/0.1 ante 0.01)
Table 'NL ₮10 I' 7-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 $10.49
Seat 2: (SB) Villain $11.12
Seat 3: (BB) Hero $11.59
Seat 4: Player 2 $41.23
Seat 5: Player 3 $19.01
Seat 6: Player 4 $5.59
Seat 7: Player 5 $2.05

Villain: posts small blind 0.05
Hero: posts big blind 0.10

Folds to villain raises to 0.30
Hero calls

*** FLOP *** [ ] Pot - [0.67]
Villain: bets 0.17
Hero: calls 0.17

*** TURN *** [] [] pot - [$1.01]
Villain: bets 0.96
Hero activated time-bank
Hero: calls 0.96

*** RIVER *** [] [] Pot - [$2.93]
Villain: bets $2.78
Hero: raises $10.15 and is all-in

What should Hero's all-in range look like and what should villains calling range look like?

I'll post my hand and the results later.

 

[Station_Master]

K high flushes, even j high seems to weak to get called and be good 50%+ of the time. You probably don't have the naked K spades based on action of hand but fine to have no bluffs at 10NL v a nutted line.
Villain should call off flushes in theory but maybe exploitatively he could fold the weaker ones.

Obviously if villain is a fish it opens up other possibilities...

 

[S3mper]

Disclaimer: I suck at poker.

Spoiler: Results:

Villain folds
Hero mucks

Spoiler: Donkey Thoughts

Flop: Villain should probably be checking a lot, but I think people way over C-bet OOP. C-bets probably consist of strongest Ax and junk that blocks my calling hands (Ts9x etc) and small under pairs with a spade. In real time I thought flush draws will mostly be checking flop but villain might bet some he shouldn't.

I'm Calling all my Kx combos that contains a spade (esp the Ks). We're ahead of his junk and have decent equity VS the under pairs and since I figured villain is mostly checking flush draws, we can consider bluffing spades.

Turn: I find that on dynamic boards players tend to bet smaller with their weak hands and go large with their strong hands afraid to get drawn out on. Though I think strongest hands like sets try to check raise some percentage of the time. In retrospect I think villain might have too many two pairs in range (Including AK) where if I hit my 9 or my K I'm no good. Also, Ks9c makes a better call. In real time I counted them as live + with intention of jamming spades facing a bet I could also have some showdown value VS bluffs like under pairs with a spade.

^ I actually ran this spot the problem is that the closest two sizes chosen are 70% or 170%. where the actual bet was 100%. At 70% it mixes with the 9c being a pure call.

River: On the flop I thought most flush draws should check. I think the most likely hands that pot turn and river are AK , AQcc., JTss/cc
I think this spot is so under bluffed at 10NL that villain is folding everything that isn't a flush and is probably letting some of them go as well. Blocking the nut flush, I think I have to jam once I don't fold turn.

Conclusion: Fold turn as played jamming river is probably a must?

 

[blueskies]

I like it. I have tried this too but only in position and only against the right kind of opponent. Has to be against a solid reg for this to work often enough to try. The prevailing thought is at 10NL the river is underbluffed, so a reg knows this, so exploit it.