ICM push/fold ITM?

Joe · Oct 14, 2018

Hey everyone,

Cashed in the pokerstars £1,000 daily giveaway again today (just by playing like a snug little nit for about 90-95% of the time) but this spot came up inducing the uncomfortable feeling of not being certain what's the correct play mathematically and the desire to spend much more time studying charts...

We've already made it ITM and are in the first level or two of min cash (as a freeroll maybe top 20-25% paid so quite a few lvls of min cash)

Can anyone tell me whether this should have been a call or a fold?

Presumably if known you'd follow the charts, but if you don't know what would you have done?

My read was that he was stealing but as I'm stuck on a mobile device for now there is no HUD info or anything to help out..

If anyone would like more information about payout structure or anything like that let me know.

Oh and like Columbo, one last thing; can anyone direct me to a source of reliable ICM charts please? Preferably as digestible as possible for muppet-features here! [emoji23]

Thanks all & peace out!

micalupagoo · Oct 14, 2018

sucks 25% of your stack is in, im nitty so probably fold, but heads up it is good odds and Im sure good players would insta call...I call

godblessiraq · Oct 15, 2018

That’s an instant call. What are you waiting for? A KJ suited?

Principg · Oct 15, 2018

Instant call.
Also, this is MTT, dont't think that ICM is even needed here.
You are just to short to fold from BB here.

MemphisGrind · Oct 15, 2018

Principg said:
Instant call.
Also, this is MTT, dont't think that ICM is even needed here.
You are just to short to fold from BB here.

ICM is definitely needed in MTT's however only really needed at or near the final table, also at the bubble as well. This is a clear call. Surprise fact here, you're actually calling 100% of your range with 3.5 BB's facing a shove from the lojack.

UkoChebuko · Oct 15, 2018

Surprise fact here, you're actually calling 100% of your range with 3.5 BB's facing a shove from the lojack

Why's that? We need 33-34% maybe...Why 72o? Kx is a call, but why with 43o, 74o?
I will fold let's say 15%...Call with 85%. If I can win some money (4-5 players to the next pay out), I will fold even more.

can anyone direct me to a source of reliable ICM charts please?

You must understand this "ICM", you can't learn it. See there, if you call, this will be 12 000 pot, right!? Close to that...You have 4 000. Well, 33-34% equity needed. Almost any hand. Because he probably don't raise , like that, with AQ, QQ. If there are 3-4 players before ITM, you need more , than 33%. Maybe 37%, 43%, even 50%. Depends on the pay out structure. Maybe there is some very small stack on MP, UTG...I mean on other tables.

MemphisGrind · Oct 15, 2018

UkoChebuko said:
Why's that? We need 33-34% maybe...Why 72o? Kx is a call, but why with 43o, 74o?
I will fold let's say 15%...Call with 85%. If I can win some money (4-5 players to the next pay out), I will fold even more.

The information was gathered from snapshove. you put the information in and it gives you the best result. Not really sure how it comes up with that I know it uses nash equilibrium but past that I'm ignorant. we have (36%) pot odds and at your absolute worst 7/2 vs AA you still have 12% to win. Maybe there is a calculation against the other possibilities of cards that evens it out. I understand what you're saying and not saying I'm correct, just quoting what snap shove says for a call against a shove from the LoJack with 3.5bb and it comes up with 100% of hands

the information that isn't concrete is a lot of If's. If there is a short stack, if pay jumps soon. we don't have that information so I was operating on the grounds as if none of those things were the case. I should have asked OP before commenting.

UkoChebuko · Oct 15, 2018

Call with ATC there can't be "mistake". Some freeroll... But 72o is - ЕV. Yeah, we are on SB next hand. Half a blind + ante with 100% range. This is also -EV (that's why "we" call 100% on BB). But the players are so weak. You can play even with 3 blinds stack

. Profitably...I mean without ICM. With ICM, 72o already is clear fold.

we have (36%) pot odds

I didn't see that. You are right then. I saw 1/3 pot odds, 33%+ needed...At first look.

MemphisGrind · Oct 15, 2018

UkoChebuko said:
Call with ATC there can't be "mistake". Some freeroll... But 72o is - ЕV. Yeah, we are on SB next hand. Half a blind + ante with 100% range. This is also -EV (that's why "we" call 100% on BB). But the players are so weak. You can play even with 3 blinds stack . Profitably...I mean without ICM. With ICM, 72o already is clear fold.

I didn't see that. You are right then. I saw 1/3 pot odds, 33%+ needed...At first look.

All good. I agree with your above statement about IF we were considering ICM the bottom 10% of our range is a clear fold however I feel like ICM is not as relevant until final table or on the bubble. When the pay jumps start becoming (noticeable)

Minus272c · Oct 15, 2018

Play by stack size :icon_stud

Your chips are so low that your almost gone next time you hit bb.
KTo is a fair hand to go with there and an easy call in that situation.

UkoChebuko · Oct 15, 2018

I feel like ICM is not as relevant until final table or on the bubble

There is ICM before the bubble and ITM. That's why the "tanking" is profitable (and unallowed).
But, yes, it is not "as relevant". If we talk about some freeroll or $1 tournament. But if we play $20-$30, it is not so irrelevant. We must avoid the borderline hands, nothing special. Call vs shove , shove as well, post-flop moves also. 2-3% equity, very rare will have a difference. But not for shove...Very often we use a borderline hands for shove.

MemphisGrind · Oct 15, 2018

UkoChebuko said:
There is ICM before the bubble and ITM. That's why "tanking"is profitable (and unallowed).

I have my own thoughts on that as well but I won't get into that on this thread

Luvepoker · Oct 15, 2018

I personally hate calling a shove with KTo but based on your stack size and pot odds there is really no choice here. It stinks but you need to go with it and hope for the best.

Joe · Oct 15, 2018

Well, it was enjoyable reading all your thoughts & input, so thank you.

Also have snapshove on my phone now, which will hopefully help develop more push/fold clarity in future! Do still need to source some charts for studying though!

If you're interested as to what happened.. In the moment I was pretty convinced that it was an automatic call and even had a strong feeling that he was stealing but having had time to think about it since I'm fairly certain he turns over some kind of monster, over cards or dominating hand (even a combination of the three), we're drawing super thin and I feel that whatever the cards were, and whether or not it was right or wrong to call or fold, we would have lost that hand. So we folded and obviously he didn't show.

Ridiculous play, some might argue, but my patience (or stupidity) was quickly rewarded within the next hand or two (AA KK or the like) and a revival of sorts was on the table...

At the time of the KT hand there must have been somewhere around 250-350 players left, within a few hands we got up to 10bb, then fluctuate between 10-20bb (possibly more but my memory is awful) before eventually our luck runs out catastrophically despite being about a 93% favourite on the turn... Finished 74th/75th...

gg

Krexnik · Nov 27, 2018

You absolutely must call here... A fourth of your stack is already in the pot and villain's shoving range provides you with decent equity. If you fold here then what? You have 3 BB and what then? You are flipping with half his range and that is good enough.

xRanieri · Nov 27, 2018

My calling range for this particular spot with 3BB is so wide, especially that you're ITM. If literally 1 person was afk and had 1 BB left, and he was about to get kicked out, so that the payout would step up a level, then yes, I'd fold. But this is a snap call. You might be a coinflip with 22-88, maybe 2 live cards against AJ, AQ. A lot of his range does crush you though

I'd fold with 8BB+ here.

gryphon3005 · Nov 27, 2018

You're itm and chip-deficient. And, I think your gut was right....he was stealing. No need for charts, ranges etc....this is a no-brainer call.

blueskies · Nov 27, 2018

Call. You are the short stack. You have nothing to lose. If you fold you are down to 3 blinds and you are getting ante'ed out every hand.

Joe · Dec 4, 2018

It's always amusing reading your own old posts! For me at least.. [emoji1]

Thanks for the feedback all!

playinggameswithu · Dec 4, 2018

4BB any two will do.

acemenow · Dec 4, 2018

Tracid said:
Hey everyone,
"...
Oh and like Columbo, one last thing; can anyone direct me to a source of reliable ICM charts please? …"

I am still trying to full wrap my head around ICM and proper use - currently rereading theory of poker by Sklansky. But I found this some time ago admittedly I have not used beyond the trial, but it seemed pretty good.

Maybe others have good or bad to say about it...

https://www.icmpoker.com/

Ryan Laplante · Dec 5, 2018

Happily getting this in. once itm icm doesnt matter until final 2 tables

megabrobro · Dec 6, 2018

if i was in that spot I would call for sure. But if I had anywhere near £10k in chips, id fold and hope for better hole cards to follow. Did you get to see what he had when he shoved?

ICM push/fold ITM?

Joe

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