Poker math practice (example)

Neko67

Neko67

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Hey guys!
Im trying to get a hold of the math but idk if I'm right or wrong. So it was this 888 poker and I was wondering if anyone can correct me if im wrong. Its a simple of example of pot odds and wether or not to call.
e13982327dca1afec5432114c4cb7648.jpg


Ok so pot odds I got was 13 to win with 7.4 to call
So 13:7.4 which is roughly 1.8:1 so roughly 36%

And hand odds are I'm assuming they need a straight so they're open ended so 8 outs. 47:8 and I just learned I'm supposed to reduce to 39:8 so that gives us 4.8:1 so 17%

See this is where I get lost. If what I just did is correct in ratio form. The math indicates a call and then in % form it goes against a call.

So if anyone would be kind enough to take a look at this and show me where I went wrong it would be a huge help. Thanks a lot :)
 
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rhombus

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You could always use an EV calculation to see if the call is + or - EV

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-expected-value.php

Formula is ~ EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)
% you win i.e. 36%.
Amount you win $13
% you lose 64%
Amount you lose $7.40

So
= (36.00% * 13.00) - (64.00% * 7.40) = -0.06
so its slightly minus EV
 
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karl coakley

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Neko67 said:
Hey guys!
Im trying to get a hold of the math but idk if I'm right or wrong. So it was this 888 poker and I was wondering if anyone can correct me if im wrong. Its a simple of example of pot odds and wether or not to call.
e13982327dca1afec5432114c4cb7648.jpg


Ok so pot odds I got was 13 to win with 7.4 to call
So 13:7.4 which is roughly 1.8:1 so roughly 36%

And hand odds are I'm assuming they need a straight so they're open ended so 8 outs. 47:8 and I just learned I'm supposed to reduce to 39:8 so that gives us 4.8:1 so 17%

See this is where I get lost. If what I just did is correct in ratio form. The math indicates a call and then in % form it goes against a call.

So if anyone would be kind enough to take a look at this and show me where I went wrong it would be a huge help. Thanks a lot :)
Click to expand...

You are really muddying up the waters on a pretty simple hand. To figure out pot odd you simply divide what you are calling into the pot. 13 in the pot and you have to call 7.4, so you are getting a little less than 2-1.

IF you have 8 outs (8 outs x4) you roughly a 32% chance of making your hand.

You need to be getting about 3-1 (about 21,000) in the pot to get the correct odds to call.

While these aren't exact figures, they are close enough to make the correct call or fold and can be done very quickly in your head.

But, there are other bigger problems with this hand.

You are counting outs that really aren't outs. Generally people count outs to the nuts. You are counting outs to the sucker end of the straight. If the villain has a hand like Kh Qh you lose a lot of outs, hands like Ah Kh have you in worse shape (you are only like 20% to win).

This is a very easy fold.
 
Neko67

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karl coakley said:
You are really muddying up the waters on a pretty simple hand. To figure out pot odd you simply divide what you are calling into the pot. 13 in the pot and you have to call 7.4, so you are getting a little less than 2-1.

IF you have 8 outs (8 outs x4) you roughly a 32% chance of making your hand.

You need to be getting about 3-1 (about 21,000) in the pot to get the correct odds to call.

While these aren't exact figures, they are close enough to make the correct call or fold and can be done very quickly in your head.

But, there are other bigger problems with this hand.

You are counting outs that really aren't outs. Generally people count outs to the nuts. You are counting outs to the sucker end of the straight. If the villain has a hand like Kh Qh you lose a lot of outs, hands like Ah Kh have you in worse shape (you are only like 20% to win).

This is a very easy fold.
Click to expand...
I see what your saying. But what I don't get is why do the number of my equity are different the way to calculate it and the way by 4 and 2 are so different. Yes I know the guy might have a better straight but im just trying to get the math part down because methods seem to differ greatly in different situations of these examples I find
 
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rhombus

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karl coakley said:
You are really muddying up the waters on a pretty simple hand. To figure out pot odd you simply divide what you are calling into the pot. 13 in the pot and you have to call 7.4, so you are getting a little less than 2-1.

IF you have 8 outs (8 outs x4) you roughly a 32% chance of making your hand.

You need to be getting about 3-1 (about 21,000) in the pot to get the correct odds to call.

While these aren't exact figures, they are close enough to make the correct call or fold and can be done very quickly in your head.

But, there are other bigger problems with this hand.

You are counting outs that really aren't outs. Generally people count outs to the nuts. You are counting outs to the sucker end of the straight. If the villain has a hand like Kh Qh you lose a lot of outs, hands like Ah Kh have you in worse shape (you are only like 20% to win).

This is a very easy fold.
Click to expand...
32% is about 2/1 not 3/1 so its about breakeven call
 
DontAskWh

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I'll fold on this situation, because 36% you will win :) and the rest you will losse. Its hard to risk on this situation , but if you feel that your outs will come , and you made call , and you win this hand... you're nice.
Anyway Fold on this situation.
 
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rhombus

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Neko67 said:
But dont the odds for the pot are 1.8:1 so like 35% so fold right?
Click to expand...
yup you fold overall unless you are feeling lucky :) or if there is a bounty as its a breakeven call

If very close then fold -
In cash you fold as even if breakeven you lose to rake
In tournaments you fold as your tournament life is more important
 
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karl coakley

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Neko67 said:
But dont the odds for the pot are 1.8:1 so like 35% so fold right?
Click to expand...

The pot odds are correct, what the discussion is about is the odds of the hand and the math which is an example of how you only have incomplete information in poker. rhombus posted 32% is about 2-1 and it could be a break even call, but you are NOT counting the outs correctly and you are a bigger dog. You are about 50/50 against any suited cards, you are about 20/80 against bigger suited cards, about 30/70 against a pair or 2 pair. If the second villain calls, you are really in big trouble.

Easy fold, just not enough money in the pot to risk 1/2 of your stack.
 
Neko67

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rhombus said:
yup you fold overall unless you are feeling lucky :) or if there is a bounty as its a breakeven call

If very close then fold -
In cash you fold as even if breakeven you lose to rake
In tournaments you fold as your tournament life is more important
Click to expand...
Wait wdym by break even call?
 
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rhombus

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Neko67 said:
Wait wdym by break even call?
Click to expand...

Break Even Call means in the long run your Profit would be approximatley $0

E.g. you are 2/1 or 33% to win

If you played the Hand 1000 times and it cost you $1 every time, you would win approximately 333 time and lose 667 times

When you win you get 2/1 odds so would get $3, 333 times approx $1000 return

The times you lose, lose $1 which will happen approx 667

So it costs you $1000 and get $1000 back so breakeven

The actual breakeven equation is Risk/(Risk + REWARD), so 1/(1+2) ~ 1/3 or 33%

If you are getting 33% its breakeven.

If you are getting greater than 33% i.e. Calling an all in Bet with a flush draw 36% its above breakeven so a call and if less than 33% its less than breakeven so a fold
 
XXPXXP

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Neko67 said:
Hey guys!
Im trying to get a hold of the math but idk if I'm right or wrong. So it was this 888 poker and I was wondering if anyone can correct me if im wrong. Its a simple of example of pot odds and wether or not to call.
e13982327dca1afec5432114c4cb7648.jpg


Ok so pot odds I got was 13 to win with 7.4 to call
So 13:7.4 which is roughly 1.8:1 so roughly 36%

And hand odds are I'm assuming they need a straight so they're open ended so 8 outs. 47:8 and I just learned I'm supposed to reduce to 39:8 so that gives us 4.8:1 so 17%

See this is where I get lost. If what I just did is correct in ratio form. The math indicates a call and then in % form it goes against a call.

So if anyone would be kind enough to take a look at this and show me where I went wrong it would be a huge help. Thanks a lot :)
Click to expand...

Is this what you ask

why you get here is 17% others is 32% something?


17% is you dealt with 1 card
32% is dealt two cards

so correct

all combo C (47,2)=1081
card you want C(8,1)X(C39, 1)+ C(8, 2)=340

so chance 340/1081=31.45%
 
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braveslice

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I did read the topic, but I’m unsure what I understood, not that I understood the question too well =) so from the beginning:

From thepokerbank.com: “Remember! You should only call if the pot odds are greater than the "card odds" (odds of completing your draw).”

Here pot odds are NOT greater than card odds, thus fold. 1.8:1 < 4.8:1

You can think it like this, with card odds, if you have one outer your card odds are 46:1 then obviously greater the card odds number the worse case we have in our hand. So big card odds bad-> we need even bigger pot odds to compensate.

Not sure I got the question right, it’s all math, even though odds format is kinky.
 
Neko67

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XXPXXP said:
Is this what you ask

why you get here is 17% others is 32% something?


17% is you dealt with 1 card
32% is dealt two cards

so correct

all combo C (47,2)=1081
card you want C(8,1)X(C39, 1)+ C(8, 2)=340

so chance 340/1081=31.45%
Click to expand...
Not exactly but I finally saw that at face value bigger pot odds than your hand odds indicate a call. Bc when converted to % the hand odds will be more. But thanks anyway!
 
Neko67

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braveslice said:
I did read the topic, but I&#146;m unsure what I understood, not that I understood the question too well =) so from the beginning:

From thepokerbank.com: &#147;Remember! You should only call if the pot odds are greater than the "card odds" (odds of completing your draw).&#148;

Here pot odds are NOT greater than card odds, thus fold. 1.8:1 < 4.8:1

You can think it like this, with card odds, if you have one outer your card odds are 46:1 then obviously greater the card odds number the worse case we have in our hand. So big card odds bad-> we need even bigger pot odds to compensate.

Not sure I got the question right, it&#146;s all math, even though odds format is kinky.
Click to expand...
I was always getting confused on why the % show opposite greater numbers. But then I realised that when the pot odds are bigger than your hand odds you actually get a smaller % from the pot odds. So it all makes now. Thanks!
 
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