Blog crosspost: Nut flush draw in no-limit hold 'em

https://www.cardschat.com/blog/04/26/nut-flush-draw-in-no-limit-hold-em/

Discuss it here, please!

Thanks to NineLions for getting it started; it's an interesting question that deserves some attention.

I think it's the perfect move to make a pot size bet in that situation, we've so far invested 9BB in this pot and offered 2 to 1 odds to our opponent. I also think this was the easy part, what comes next is more interesting (what LP will do and our strategy from there when he calls or raises).

My opinion is that it's more important from the perspective of the raiser to get calls from lesser hands than it is to price out a flush draw that probably isn't there.

With 2 clubs on the board there are 11 clubs left in the deck of 47 unseen cards. The chances any random hand has 2 clubs is (11/47*10/46) = 5.1%. While people are more likely to call raises with suited hands, they're also more likely to call raises with pairs, which are never suited... the effects probably cancelling out, so I'm only up against a flush draw about 1 time in 20.

That's why I tend to make my c-bets smaller than pot-size. There are only 2 Queens out and I want to get a call from a 7 or middle pair. It's also cheaper when I'm bluffing and has a similar effect of getting "nothing" hands to fold.

Perhaps more interesting is what to do with your flush draw - do you call because you have good odds and some implied odds, or do you raise and hope to fold out a hand like AK?

I think it differs a lot depending on whether you're in a heads-up or multi-way pot.

1) If you're the only caller, I don't like this call pre-flop. A9s doesn't play well against a typical raising range. You should either fold or re-raise. (In this hand, AQo should fold to the re-raise. If he doesn't, you're shoving this flop/turn and have a fair amount of fold equity.) As played, raising is probably best because you fold out hands that didn't hit, and get hands like AQ to slow down and probably check the turn. Versus an overpair which isn't folding and may 3-bet this flop, you'd probably be facing a big bet you couldn't call on the turn anyway.

2) In a multi-way pot, calling is better because you're drawing to the nuts so want overcallers, and you have less fold equity.

And 1/2 - 3/4 pot sized bets keep the pot smaller if you're TPTK, especially at the flop where anything going in gets multiplied when you make bets in pot multiples on the turn or river. I guess to some extent, like the size of preflop raises, you can vary it according to the table and you should vary it somewhat just to not be obvious, but pot odds will restrict how far it could be varied.


I'm kind of jumping ahead here to the next post, 'cause as I typed the above, I called a pot sized flop bet with a straight flush draw, and another pot sized bet on the flop. But, there were no implied odds as the guy was all-in after his turn bet. Fortunately, I finished the straight flush on the river. With no implied odds it was a bad call with 15 outs, but I couldn't resist.

NineLions said:

I'm kind of jumping ahead here to the next post, 'cause as I typed the above, I called a pot sized flop bet with a straight flush draw, and another pot sized bet on the turn. But, there were no implied odds as the guy was all-in after his turn bet. Fortunately, I finished the straight flush on the river. With no implied odds it was a bad call with 15 outs, but I couldn't resist.

Click to expand...

Not really, if you have 15 outs, you're about 30% to hit and can call a slightly less than pot-size bet. Why didn't you shove the flop though?

BTW a straight flush draw is different to a simple flush draw because you're normally a favourite on the flop and hence should play it more aggressively.

Bombjack said:

Not really, if you have 15 outs, you're about 30% to hit and can call a slightly less than pot-size bet. Why didn't you shove the flop though?

Click to expand...

I dunno, I guess because it's still a draw.

But with 9 suited cards plus 6 straight completions, plus it was raised preflop by one person so he's probably on overcards/overpair so even the dummy end of the straight is likely good meaning slightly less than 60% chance of hitting on the turn and river combined, I could'a / should'a.

Part II posted, by the way. Keep your comments coming.

Thanks FP.


I guess I could have added another MP preflop caller to make the pot odds more inviting for the button, but basically I was trying to get a situation for a decent made hand against a nut flush, no straight, draw.


I appreciate the detailed analysis of the options. One odd thought comes to mind; is there ever any value to the mystery created by just calling? Like everyone, I've been on both sides of the situation, either calling because I'm drawing or have a medium strength hand, or leading and getting called and wondering what the person is calling with. At the levels I play often it's something stupid like a gutshot or a weak ace (in a different scenario than we've been looking at) that's doing the calling, but I've never seen any value attributed to the mystery of calling, other than in a rope-a-dope strategy.

(edit: actually you did refer to the MP's situation after the call in your last line, and at the end of the analysis of the call option)


btw, I think you mean "wary" here, but you may be weary too.

"We should also be weary of giving up too much information"

Ah, typo. Thanks!

A comment on BJ's comment on the blog itself;

You're definitely right about the reverse implied odds that often happens when calling with Ax suited when the flop comes with an ace. Another part of the reason that I had chosen that hand, aside from as I said, trying to eliminate straight possibilities, is remembering a thread started by Irexes where he called with A7s or something like that, saying he was looking to hit a monster or be done with it. In this case the button player is doing the same thing but didn't quite get the monster yet so both players get stuck with some decisions.

my thoughts are aligned with bombjack's

Phew, part IV up. I need some sleep after that one.
https://www.cardschat.com/blog/05/02/nut-flush-draw-in-no-limit-hold-‘em-part-iv/

Thanks Fredrik, for all the time and work in this. I won't ask you another one for, oh, a couple days at least


On first reading, since Button already has MP's $16 in the pot, what about hoping that another spade/a board pair (threatening full house) doesn't come on the river, and just smooth calling the turn, making MP squirm some more?

You need to have some idea of how MP plays the river if you want to take that route. Generally speaking, I don't like it. Sure, we may get a blocking bet out of him if the river blanks (with my limit tendencies, I'm often more aggressive on the river than conventional NL wisdom suggests, so with me you very often would) but even if Button knows MP's hand, there are 9 spades, 3 non-spade kings, 3 7s and 3 treys that could potentially freeze him up on the river. That's half the deck that might kill his action.

What's especially powerful about raising the turn instead of the river though, is that on the turn he could be raising as a semi-bluff. In the eyes of a thinking opponent, that takes away some of the respect that his raise commands. Not so on the river. Let's also not forget that there is a chance that his opponent might be holding the king of spades, thus being very likely to call the turn raise, but will fold a blank river.