Long one
Ok 1st let’s clear up some misconceptions. “Misconceptions?” you say, “What misconceptions?” You know the ones I started by getting things well, sort of right earlier.
PNLs target SPR for TPTK hands is actually:
Tight – 2
Normal (unknown) – 4.5
Loose (bad) – 7
PNLs target SPR for OP hands is actually:
Tight – 4
Normal (unknown) – 6
Loose (bad) – 10 (the only target SPR in double digits for a single pair hand)
As I said previously I have been using 4 for TPTK hands and 7 for OPs, so just wanted to get this straight first. Sorry for the confusion.
I discovered this today when I got the book back out to look for a concrete answer to Zach’s question but it turns out I had that part right earlier, the numbers are derived by this nebulous “you’d be happy to bet pot on the flop and turn and 2/3 pot on the river with an OP of AA (SPR 6) against a normal opponent”.
I’m going to post a few hands now to illustrate how I use SPR to plan my hands even before we see the flop.
Obvious AA example:
full tilt poker Game #6566570691: Table Trust (deep) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:39:58 ET - 2008/05/26
Seat 1: milehighpoker ($39.45)
Seat 2: michael0511 ($53.40)
Seat 3: MrsPauls ($33.80)
Seat 4: nsddevil ($25.80)
Seat 5: jabjabknockout ($56.10)
Seat 6: Thermo787 ($49.05)
Seat 7: BceMoe ($25.25)
Seat 8: trancer6 ($44.75)
Seat 9: Dezel ($44.60)
michael0511 posts the small blind of $0.10
MrsPauls posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrsPauls [Ad Ac]
nsddevil folds
jabjabknockout has 15 seconds left to act
jabjabknockout folds
Thermo787 has 15 seconds left to act
Thermo787 calls $0.25
BceMoe folds
trancer6 has 15 seconds left to act
trancer6 calls $0.25
Dezel calls $0.25
milehighpoker raises to $1.60
michael0511 folds
MrsPauls has 15 seconds left to act
MrsPauls raises to $4
Thermo787 folds
trancer6 folds
Dezel folds
milehighpoker calls $2.40
Preflop pot size = $8.85 Smallest remaining stack (ours) is $29.80 SPR= 3.3 (in the moment I just know that it’s under 4).
With AA and an SPR under 4 we’re committed to this hand. We will get all-in if our opponent is willing by the turn unless the board is extremely scary (something like Ks, Qs, Js and we probably have to fold, otherwise we stack)
*** FLOP *** [4s 5d 8s]
MrsPauls bets $5
milehighpoker raises to $35.45, and is all in
MrsPauls calls $24.80, and is all in
milehighpoker shows [Qh Qc]
MrsPauls shows [Ad Ac]
Uncalled bet of $5.65 returned to milehighpoker
*** TURN *** [4s 5d 8s]
8♣
*** RIVER *** [4s 5d 8s 8c]
7♦
milehighpoker shows two pair, Queens and Eights
MrsPauls shows two pair, Aces and Eights
MrsPauls wins the pot ($65.45) with two pair, Aces and Eights
An AK example that I probably should have tried to take his stack on had I remembered the PNL recommendations for TPTK against a loose opponent (he was something like 51/12/2):
Full Tilt
poker game #6031883857: Table Fort Apache - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:34:56 ET - 2008/04/14
Seat 1: MrsPauls ($25.30)
Seat 2: Attosz88 ($35.30)
Seat 3: Sheleg ($16.35)
Seat 4: La-Paul ($20.15), is sitting out
Seat 5: SickCallKenny ($70.35)
Seat 6: Splintinho ($9.65)
Seat 7: m0riZ0riZ0r ($4.30)
Seat 8: randy1184 ($50.25)
Seat 9: metastase333 ($25)
Splintinho posts the small blind of $0.10
m0riZ0riZ0r posts the big blind of $0.25
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrsPauls [Ac Kc]
randy1184 folds
MrsPauls raises to $0.75
(Don’t remember why I made a smaller raise here than normal, but it should be noted that my standard raise would have allowed us to achieve our target SPR (4) here. Just a mistake.)
Attosz88 folds
Sheleg folds
SickCallKenny folds
Splintinho calls $0.65
m0riZ0riZ0r folds
Preflop pot = $1.75 Smallest stack (his) = $8.90 SPR = ~5 Using a target SPR of 4 I’m not looking to take his stack here with a single pair although it’s close enough that we’ll not likely fold but with position we should be able to control the pot.
*** FLOP *** [3d As 4c]
m0riZ0riZ0r adds $1
Splintinho bets $1
MrsPauls calls $1
*** TURN *** [3d As 4c]
3♣
Splintinho bets $1.75
MrsPauls calls $1.75
*** RIVER *** [3d As 4c 3c] 9♠
Splintinho checks
MrsPauls checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Splintinho shows [Jh Ad] two pair, Aces and Threes
MrsPauls shows [Ac Kc] two pair, Aces and Threes
MrsPauls wins the pot ($6.90) with two pair, Aces and Threes
I basically become a passive calling station here to avoid a pot bigger than what I was thinking our target SPR should be. Again against this opponent we should have raised along the way or bet the river but this hand does illustrate the principal even if misapplied.
AQ makes pair of Aces deeper stacks
Full Tilt Poker Game #6165948218: Table Charleston - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:03:43 ET - 2008/04/24
Seat 1: jiggaman20 ($38.15)
Seat 2: GemLeo44 ($33.95)
Seat 3: sebby ($25)
Seat 4: neil24 ($27.55)
Seat 5: MrsPauls ($38.50)
Seat 6: MRH223 ($23.65)
Seat 7: blmf20 ($39.35)
Seat 8: bombchan ($14.95)
Seat 9: Peqoud ($27.70)
MrsPauls posts the small blind of $0.10
MRH223 posts the big blind of $0.25
sebby posts $0.25
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrsPauls [Ah Qs]
blmf20 folds
bombchan folds
blmf20 stands up
Peqoud folds
jiggaman20 folds
GemLeo44 calls $0.25
sebby checks
neil24 folds
MrsPauls raises to $1.50
MRH223 folds
GemLeo44 calls $1.25
sebby folds
Preflop pot = $3.5 Smaller remaining stack (his) 32.45 SPR = just over 9. We’re not stacking with TP here. In fact if we think our target SPR is 4 (remember our target is what we want to hit to make the most $$) we know that we should be trying to put about $14 more (target SPR * preflop pot) into this pot should we hit.
*** FLOP *** [6h Ad 5s]
MrsPauls bets $2
GemLeo44 calls $2
*** TURN *** [6h Ad 5s]
8♣
MrsPauls checks
GemLeo44 bets $3
MrsPauls raises to $9
(This might have been the wrong play here because it brings us close to our target but his bet looked so weak)
GemLeo44 calls $6
*** RIVER *** [6h Ad 5s 8c]
9♥
MrsPauls checks
GemLeo44 checks
(If he makes a real bet here we fold)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MrsPauls shows [Ah Qs] a pair of Aces
GemLeo44 shows [Ac 8h] two pair, Aces and Eights
GemLeo44 wins the pot ($24.25) with two pair, Aces and Eights
We lost the pot but managed to stay under our target SPR for the hand and the more we can do that the higher our expected return will be.
Last one. This time we hit top 2 against an opponent who we have this wonderful note on “10P with TP” meaning we’ve seen him put a lot of $$ in with just TP.
Full Tilt Poker Game #6362583233: Table Saber (deep) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:41:05 ET - 2008/05/10
Seat 1: MrsPauls ($99.50)
Seat 2: LargeLouster ($60.05)
Seat 3: bigryn33m ($33.15)
Seat 4: MoMoney2305 ($39.30)
Seat 6: Skymax1986 ($25)
Seat 8: miamimad ($34.40)
Seat 9: Tenzar ($50), is sitting out
MoMoney2305 posts the small blind of $0.10
Skymax1986 has 5 seconds left to act
Skymax1986 posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrsPauls [As Jh]
miamimad calls $0.25
MrsPauls raises to $1.25
LargeLouster folds
bigryn33m folds
MoMoney2305 folds
Skymax1986 folds
miamimad calls $1
Preflop pot = $2.85 Smaller remaining stack (his) = 33.15 SPR = 11.5. We’re not stacking with TP here. We are looking to get in ~ $20 against this opponent, should we hit.
*** FLOP *** [3h 8s Ad]
miamimad bets $3
MrsPauls has 15 seconds left to act
MrsPauls raises to $9.50
(I hate donk betters)
miamimad has 15 seconds left to act
miamimad calls $6.50
*** TURN *** [3h 8s Ad]
J♣ (bingo)
mortis4u99 sits down
miamimad has 15 seconds left to act
mortis4u99 adds $17
miamimad bets $13.65
MrsPauls raises to $23.65
(yes, he could have a set but we know he’ll go all the way with TP so we get him all-in with top 2, without the turned J I would have folded here)
Miamimad calls $10.00, and is all in
miamimad shows [Ah Th]
(weaker than expected better update the note )
MrsPauls shows [As Jh]
*** RIVER *** [3h 8s Ad Jc] 6♠
miamimad shows a pair of Aces
MrsPauls shows two pair, Aces and Jacks
MrsPauls wins the pot ($66.15) with two pair, Aces and Jacks
miamimad is sitting out
Really hope this helps Jag. Basically I'm using SPR to plan my hands before I see the flop. I know based on SPR my level of commitment and how much more $$ we'd like to get into the pot should we make our TP.