ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
This will be my last pokerazor post on the forums until other people start posting them. I just want to show how powerful it can be when you figure out your opponent's entire range distribution in all the different scenarios. I'll be saving the rest of my pokerazor stuff on my own PC, probably in pdf format or something so I can refer to them later. I'll happily post them here if other people get off their asses, start doing the work and sharing too.
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Straight maths can't decide whether or not cbetting will be the best EV play since metagame, gameflow, and a whole lot more than our opponent's pf calling range would have to be taken account for, but finding out how often our opponent hits the flop is easily the biggest factor in deciding whether or not to cbet against a fish who plays his hand for face value.
Scenario 1: Fishy villain defends roughly the top %40 (minus JJ+,AK which would reraise most of the time), flop comes 234 monotone. How much of his range hits this flop?
(villain's range for all the scenarios is {TT-22, AQ-A2, K8+, K7s-K2s, Q8+, Q7s-Q6s, J9+, J8s, T9, T8s, 98, 97s, 87s, 76s, 65s})
Not posting pics this time since it's a pain in the ass...
Only %20 of the time will he have top pair or better but a whopping %24 of the time he'll have both ace high and a gutshot, and some flush draws in there, meaning he'll peel with those hands often. Draws are calculated separately, meaning you wouldn't add these %s on top of the % of time they'll have pairs or sets or whatever, so keep that in mind. %35 he'll have a gutshot, %2 he'll have an OESD, %25.5 of the time he'll have a weak FD, and %7.5 he'll have the nut FD.
No need to really go into too much detail with this one - if he's a fishy player who doesn't fold often postflop, this is not a board you should continue on without a hand of your own.
Scenario 2: 789 mono flop.
Even worse as more of his range is weighted towards middle and higher cards.
%38 of the time he'll have second pair or better, %29 he'll have top pair or better. Draws make up the majority of his range though. %19 gutshots, %22 oesd, %8 nut FD. Definitely among the nastier flops against a fish, of course assuming you don't have a hand.
Scenario 3:4s5sJx (flush draw on board)
Pretty good board to cbet. He'll have top pair or better only %15 of the time. A good chunk of his range has just missed completely (overs, over/under, unders etc). A good chunk of his range (~%16.4) will be pairs under the jack (both pocket pairs and 5x/4x), but those hands won't be too hard to shake as we can barrel them fairly easily on scary turn cards. It's debatable whether we can push those off, but even if they peel with all of their underpairs, it's still not all that much of his range.
His draws aren't too strong and aren't too likely either. He's only got an OESD %1 of the time and flush draws %7 of the time. This is actually a great board to cbet, don't let the flush draw scare you into thinking he'll peel lots. He won't.
Scenario 4: 8s9sAx
Made hands: %35 top pair or better, %31 underpairs that will probably peel (excluding 77-22, debatable). Note that now there are not as many scare cards to barrel since the highest card is already out there. Someone who peeled with 9T is probably less likely to fold on a Q turn here than in scenario 3. Lots of those hands could also have draws, or pick up draws on the turn, and are therefore less likely to fold, like 9T on a jack turn for ex.
Draws: %11 strong draws (OESDs, FDs), %8.9 gutshots.
Debatable flop. A surprising % of his distribution is top pair hands that will virtually never let go, especially to a single cbet. Looks like this is a flop you should probably slow down on. I'm pretty surprised - thought this would be one we could cbet.
Scenario 5: A92
Made hands: %32 top pair or better. Almost %30 underpairs which aren't likely to fold to the cbet. I think barreling those hands would depend largely on our reads. High turn fold % and low wtsd and then we can barrel him. Otherwise we shut down.
Draws: non existant, which is great.
Looks like this isn't as great of a board as we'd usually think for a cbet, but it's still good. No draws, only 1/3 of his range is top pair or better, and a good portion of those underpairs can be barreled off, debatably.
Scenario 6: K92
A much better board, mainly for the fact that his range is much more weighted towards Ax hands than Kx, so obv he'll miss this board more often.
Made hands: %18.5 TP or better, %27 underpairs. Underpairs aren't too much of a concern again, as most of them can be barreled, or will fold outright depending on how often our fishy peels the flop.
Draws are almost non-existant. There are QT/QJ/JT gutshots, and whether or not those will peel is debatable.
Scenario 7: KK2
%12 trips or better, %14 underpairs. He has like nothing, ever on this board. One simple reason is that his unpaired hole cards form 16 combos, where as his pocket pairs form 6 combos each. Also the fact that the board is paired means that there are much fewer ways for him to pair the board as well.
No draws. This is basically the best kind of board you can hope for. Fire away! Also don't be afraid to barrel J/Q/A turn cards either. Just because he calls the flop doesn't mean he has trips.
Scenario 8: TxTs9s
Made hands: %8.1 trips or better, %25 9x or worse pairs. Pretty good. I have a feeling the draws will be significant though...
Draws: %12 strong draws, %12 gutshots. I guess this time his gutshots are a little more significant since they'll include overcards sometimes, but even so there really aren't too many combos of hands that hit this flop.
This one looks pretty good. There are a few draws, but if he's loose enough to peel with 9x or an underpair, then he'll have a hard time calling a double barrel on a lot of turn cards. With ace high you could effectively be value betting against his draws, and could check back the river knowing he won't fold underpairs or 9x.
Scenario 9: 6x6s4s
Made hands: %9.5 top pair or better, a few middle/underpairs.
%6 strong draws, not much else.
A fantastic board to cbet. Even better with no FD.
Scenario 10: AQK
Top pair or better %39, %30 Qx or better. Those hands will often have redraws with gutshots and won't often fold.
Draws: mostly gutshots, but they show up a whopping %30.
Not a great board. The more your opponent's range is weighted towards suited connectors and smaller cards and the more likely he is to fold underpairs and Qx/Kx hands here, the more likely you should be to bet. Not a great board though.
Scenario 11: AAT
%23 trips or better (surprisingly high), %27 middle and underpairs
Some gutshots (KQ/QJ/KJ) that might peel as well, so barreling might not be a good idea if thos cards pick up a pair (or the broadway straight) on a K/Q/J turn.
Good enough to cbet once, but shut down when called.
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I'm pretty much done. Can't really think of many other flop textures, though I'm sure there are more. Overall it looks like what we should be looking for against a fish is mostly uncoordinated, rainbow, non-ace flops.
***
Straight maths can't decide whether or not cbetting will be the best EV play since metagame, gameflow, and a whole lot more than our opponent's pf calling range would have to be taken account for, but finding out how often our opponent hits the flop is easily the biggest factor in deciding whether or not to cbet against a fish who plays his hand for face value.
Scenario 1: Fishy villain defends roughly the top %40 (minus JJ+,AK which would reraise most of the time), flop comes 234 monotone. How much of his range hits this flop?
(villain's range for all the scenarios is {TT-22, AQ-A2, K8+, K7s-K2s, Q8+, Q7s-Q6s, J9+, J8s, T9, T8s, 98, 97s, 87s, 76s, 65s})
Not posting pics this time since it's a pain in the ass...
Only %20 of the time will he have top pair or better but a whopping %24 of the time he'll have both ace high and a gutshot, and some flush draws in there, meaning he'll peel with those hands often. Draws are calculated separately, meaning you wouldn't add these %s on top of the % of time they'll have pairs or sets or whatever, so keep that in mind. %35 he'll have a gutshot, %2 he'll have an OESD, %25.5 of the time he'll have a weak FD, and %7.5 he'll have the nut FD.
No need to really go into too much detail with this one - if he's a fishy player who doesn't fold often postflop, this is not a board you should continue on without a hand of your own.
Scenario 2: 789 mono flop.
Even worse as more of his range is weighted towards middle and higher cards.
%38 of the time he'll have second pair or better, %29 he'll have top pair or better. Draws make up the majority of his range though. %19 gutshots, %22 oesd, %8 nut FD. Definitely among the nastier flops against a fish, of course assuming you don't have a hand.
Scenario 3:4s5sJx (flush draw on board)
Pretty good board to cbet. He'll have top pair or better only %15 of the time. A good chunk of his range has just missed completely (overs, over/under, unders etc). A good chunk of his range (~%16.4) will be pairs under the jack (both pocket pairs and 5x/4x), but those hands won't be too hard to shake as we can barrel them fairly easily on scary turn cards. It's debatable whether we can push those off, but even if they peel with all of their underpairs, it's still not all that much of his range.
His draws aren't too strong and aren't too likely either. He's only got an OESD %1 of the time and flush draws %7 of the time. This is actually a great board to cbet, don't let the flush draw scare you into thinking he'll peel lots. He won't.
Scenario 4: 8s9sAx
Made hands: %35 top pair or better, %31 underpairs that will probably peel (excluding 77-22, debatable). Note that now there are not as many scare cards to barrel since the highest card is already out there. Someone who peeled with 9T is probably less likely to fold on a Q turn here than in scenario 3. Lots of those hands could also have draws, or pick up draws on the turn, and are therefore less likely to fold, like 9T on a jack turn for ex.
Draws: %11 strong draws (OESDs, FDs), %8.9 gutshots.
Debatable flop. A surprising % of his distribution is top pair hands that will virtually never let go, especially to a single cbet. Looks like this is a flop you should probably slow down on. I'm pretty surprised - thought this would be one we could cbet.
Scenario 5: A92
Made hands: %32 top pair or better. Almost %30 underpairs which aren't likely to fold to the cbet. I think barreling those hands would depend largely on our reads. High turn fold % and low wtsd and then we can barrel him. Otherwise we shut down.
Draws: non existant, which is great.
Looks like this isn't as great of a board as we'd usually think for a cbet, but it's still good. No draws, only 1/3 of his range is top pair or better, and a good portion of those underpairs can be barreled off, debatably.
Scenario 6: K92
A much better board, mainly for the fact that his range is much more weighted towards Ax hands than Kx, so obv he'll miss this board more often.
Made hands: %18.5 TP or better, %27 underpairs. Underpairs aren't too much of a concern again, as most of them can be barreled, or will fold outright depending on how often our fishy peels the flop.
Draws are almost non-existant. There are QT/QJ/JT gutshots, and whether or not those will peel is debatable.
Scenario 7: KK2
%12 trips or better, %14 underpairs. He has like nothing, ever on this board. One simple reason is that his unpaired hole cards form 16 combos, where as his pocket pairs form 6 combos each. Also the fact that the board is paired means that there are much fewer ways for him to pair the board as well.
No draws. This is basically the best kind of board you can hope for. Fire away! Also don't be afraid to barrel J/Q/A turn cards either. Just because he calls the flop doesn't mean he has trips.
Scenario 8: TxTs9s
Made hands: %8.1 trips or better, %25 9x or worse pairs. Pretty good. I have a feeling the draws will be significant though...
Draws: %12 strong draws, %12 gutshots. I guess this time his gutshots are a little more significant since they'll include overcards sometimes, but even so there really aren't too many combos of hands that hit this flop.
This one looks pretty good. There are a few draws, but if he's loose enough to peel with 9x or an underpair, then he'll have a hard time calling a double barrel on a lot of turn cards. With ace high you could effectively be value betting against his draws, and could check back the river knowing he won't fold underpairs or 9x.
Scenario 9: 6x6s4s
Made hands: %9.5 top pair or better, a few middle/underpairs.
%6 strong draws, not much else.
A fantastic board to cbet. Even better with no FD.
Scenario 10: AQK
Top pair or better %39, %30 Qx or better. Those hands will often have redraws with gutshots and won't often fold.
Draws: mostly gutshots, but they show up a whopping %30.
Not a great board. The more your opponent's range is weighted towards suited connectors and smaller cards and the more likely he is to fold underpairs and Qx/Kx hands here, the more likely you should be to bet. Not a great board though.
Scenario 11: AAT
%23 trips or better (surprisingly high), %27 middle and underpairs
Some gutshots (KQ/QJ/KJ) that might peel as well, so barreling might not be a good idea if thos cards pick up a pair (or the broadway straight) on a K/Q/J turn.
Good enough to cbet once, but shut down when called.
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I'm pretty much done. Can't really think of many other flop textures, though I'm sure there are more. Overall it looks like what we should be looking for against a fish is mostly uncoordinated, rainbow, non-ace flops.
